Link prediction (inferring missing or future connections between nodes in a graph) is a fundamental problem in network science with widespread applications in, e.g., biological systems, recommender systems, finance and cybersecurity. The ability to accurately predict links has significant real-world applications, such as detecting fraudulent financial transactions or identifying drug-target interactions in biomedicine. Despite a rich literature, link prediction is still challenging, especially for graphs enriched with information on edges (direction) and nodes (attributes). In fact, research on link prediction, especially the one based on Graph Deep Learning (GDL), has mostly focused on undirected graphs, without fully leveraging node attributes. Here, we fill this gap by proposing Gravity-GraphSAGE (GG-SAGE), a modified version of GraphSAGE, a GDL model for node embeddings, composed of a gravity-inspired decoder. This implementation is the first example in the literature of a GraphSAGE backbone adopted for directed link prediction. Using the benchmark datasets Cora, Citeseer, PubMed and 16 real-world graphs from the online Netzschleuder repository, we show that our proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art GDL link prediction techniques. Using further experimental evidence, we relate the quality of the output of our model with various characteristics of the graph, suggesting that our framework scales well when applied to data of increasing complexity.

Generative models are powerful tools for sampling from a learned distribution $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X)$, and inverse-design methods invert this map to find an input $x$ that produces a desired point output $y^*$. However, many design goals are naturally distributional rather than pointwise, incorporating the inherent uncertainty of $Y$ and targeting a specific form for it, a task not addressed by standard inverse design. To address this issue we introduce Conditional Distribution Matching (CDM), a new inverse-design problem class in generative modeling: given a joint distribution $\mathcal{P}(X, Y)$ and a target distribution $\mathcal{G}(Y)$, find an input $x^*$ whose induced conditional distribution $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X = x^*)$ matches $\mathcal{G}$. We formally define two variants: Conditional Distribution Matching Sampling (CDMS) and Conditional Distribution Matching Optimization (CDMO). To solve these problems, we propose MLGD-F (Matching-Loss Guided Diffusion with a Fast inner sampler), a plug-and-play inference-time algorithm that combines a pretrained score-based diffusion model with a pretrained fast conditional sampler, requiring no additional training or fine-tuning. By leveraging single-step conditional sampling, MLGD-F enables tractable gradient computation, making the estimation of $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X)$ both memory-efficient and computationally lightweight. We validate MLGD-F on synthetic benchmarks, structured image transformations, and generative editing optimization, demonstrating reliable recovery of inputs whose conditional distributions match diverse user-specified targets, including discrete mixtures and continuous low-rank supports.

Mediation analysis (Robins & Greenland 1992, Pearl 2001, Imai, Keele & Tingley 2010, Tchetgen Tchetgen & Shpitser 2012) provides a principled framework for investigating causal mechanisms by decomposing the effect of a treatment A on an outcome Y into pathways operating through a mediator of interest M. Classical mediation analysis focuses on the natural indirect effect, corresponding to the pathway from Ato Y through M, and the natural direct effect, corresponding to pathways not through M. These estimands are well understood when a single mediator is present and strong identification assumptions hold. However, in many applications, there exist multiple intermediate variables between treatment and outcome. In such settings, conventional mediation analysis typically requires the absence of treatment-induced mediator-outcome confounders--often referred to as recanting witnesses--as well as the absence of unmeasured confounding. Under these circumstances, commonly used identification assumptions such as sequential ignorability (Imai, Keele & Yamamoto 2010) or nonparametric structural equation models with independent errors (NPSEM-IE) (Pearl 2009) no longer suffice to identify natural indirect effects (Avin et al. 2005, Tchetgen Tchetgen & VanderWeele 2014). Figure 1 illustrates this issue: the recanting witness D is directly affected by A and simultaneously confounds the relationship between M and Y. Such treatment-induced confounding is common in epidemiologic studies, particularly when the mediator of interest occurs long after the treatment initiation (Robins 1999). A motivating example arises in studies of preterm birth. Mediation analysis has been widely used to explore whether adequate prenatal care (A) reduces the risk of preterm birth (Y) through preeclampsia (M) (Vansteelandt & VanderWeele 2012, VanderWeele et al. 2014, Xia & Chan 2023).

Matrix completion is a fundamental problem in machine learning, where the objective is to recover missing entries of a partially observed matrix. A prominent example is the Netflix Prize (Bennett and Lanning, 2007), which involved predicting a matrix of movie ratings by users for recommendation purposes. Beyond recommendation, matrix completion has recently found applications in causal inference for panel data (Athey et al., 2021). A standard assumption in matrix completion is that the underlying matrix is approximately low-rank, reflecting a few latent factors that govern interactions between rows and columns. A substantial body of work has established theoretical guarantees and developed efficient algorithms for matrix completion (Cai, Cand`es and Shen, 2010; Cand`es and Recht, 2008; Keshavan, Montanari, and Oh, 2010; Mazumder, Hastie and Tibshirani, 2010; Recht, 2011), predominantly focusing on cases where the observed entries are continuous-valued. In many applications, however, observations are not continuous-valued but binary.

Training a language model on data scattered across bandwidth-limited nodes that cannot be centralized is a setting that arises in clinical networks, enterprise knowledge bases, and scientific consortia. We study the regime in which data must remain distributed across nodes, and ask what statistical guarantees are in principle achievable under explicit bandwidth budgets; we aim to characterize what is provably possible, not to demonstrate a deployment-ready system. Existing theory treats either training-time consistency or inference-time calibration in isolation, and none makes bandwidth a first-class statistical parameter. We analyze two protocols, Federated Probe-Logit Distillation (FPLD) for training and Federated Conformal RAG (FC-RAG) for inference, as the analytical vehicles for our results. Our first main result is an explicit high-probability KL-consistency rate for FPLD with simultaneous dependence on node count $K$, per-node sample size $n$, quantization budget $B$, probe-set size $m$, and vocabulary size $V$; bandwidth enters only through an exponentially vanishing quantization term. Our second main result is a distribution-free marginal-coverage bound for FC-RAG, whose novel retrieval-bandwidth slack $Δ_{\mathrm{RAG}} = f_{\max}\sqrt{K^{-2}\sum_i v(B_i)}$ makes per-node retrieval bandwidth a first-class statistical parameter, with arithmetic aggregation across $K$ nodes shrinking the slack as $K^{-1/2}$ in the per-node-uniform regime. A Pinsker-type corollary composes the two bounds into an end-to-end coverage guarantee. Synthetic experiments verify the predicted scaling along the bounds' parameters; small-scale experiments on a GPT-2 testbed illustrate that the qualitative bandwidth-accuracy tradeoff survives on a real language model. A deployment-scale empirical evaluation is out of scope.

In this paper, we study the problem of sampling from a distribution under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Prior works measure the utility of DP sampling with density ratio-based measures such as KL divergence. However, such formulations suffer from two key limitations: 1) they fail to capture the geometric structure of the support, and 2) they are not applicable when the supports of the distributions differ. To deal with these issues, we develop a novel framework for DP sampling with Wasserstein distance as the utility measure. In this formulation, we propose Wasserstein Projection Mechanism (WPM), a minimax optimal mechanism based on Wasserstein projection. Furthermore, we develop efficient algorithms for computing the proposed mechanisms approximately and provide convergence guarantees.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

We propose a novel adaptive Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework for time series forecasting that enhances expert specialization by incorporating expert-specific loss information directly into the training process. Notably, the overall objective comprises the base forecasting loss and expert-specific losses, allowing expert-level prediction errors to jointly shape training alongside the global forecasting loss. This framework is further combined with a partial online learning strategy, enabling incremental updates of both the gating mechanism and expert parameters. This approach significantly reduces computational cost by eliminating the need for repeated full model retraining. By integrating expert-level loss awareness with efficient online optimization, the proposed method achieves improved learning efficiency while maintaining strong predictive performance. Empirical results across economic, tourism, and energy datasets with varying frequencies demonstrate that the proposed approach generally outperforms both statistical methods and state-of-the-art neural network models, such as Transformers and WaveNet, in forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of the expert-specific loss integration strategy, highlighting its contribution to enhancing predictive performance.

Guided-diffusion black-box optimization (BO) has shown strong empirical performance on structured design problems such as molecules and crystals, but its regret behavior remains poorly understood. Existing BO regret analyses typically rely on maximum information gain, non-pretrained surrogate models, or exact acquisition maximization -- assumptions that break down in modern diffusion -- BO pipelines, where pretrained diffusion models serve as powerful priors over valid structures and acquisition maximization is replaced by approximate sampling over astronomically large discrete spaces. We develop a first certificate-based expected simple-regret framework for guided-diffusion BO that avoids maximum-information-gain bounds, RKHS assumptions, and exact acquisition maximization. The central quantity in our analysis is mass lift: the increase in probability mass assigned to near-optimal designs relative to the pretrained generator. This view explains how exponential-looking finite-budget convergence and polynomial acceleration can all arise from the same mechanism. We also give practical diagnostics for estimating search exponents from finite candidate pools and a proposal-corrected resampling construction that provides a fully certified sampler instance.

As datasets continue to expand in size and complexity, these models have become increasingly sophisticated, with deeper architectures and greater expressive power. Despite these advances, DNNs trained on imbalanced class distributions often exhibit a tendency to favor majority classes, leading to degraded performance on underrepresented classes [18, 39, 27, 17]. Because many real-world datasets follow long-tailed distributions in which minority classes can contain critical and informative patterns, developing methods that enable DNNs to learn effectively from imbalanced data is essential to prevent the loss of valuable information from these rare classes [26, 34, 16]. Moreover, data encountered in real-world applications are frequently multi-modal, meaning that observations originate from heterogeneous sources [6, 29, 7, 35]. To make effective use of such heterogeneous inputs, a wide range of multi-modal learning approaches have been proposed that exploit complementary information across modalities to enhance predictive performance [10, 5]. Common strategies integrate multiple modalities into a unified representation, using techniques that span from straightforward feature-level concatenation [19, 11, 12] to more sophisticated neural architectures that learn joint representations in an end-to-end manner [20, 32]. Although prior research has extensively studied class imbalance and multi-modal data separately, relatively little attentionhas beengiven to settings where bothchallenges arise si2 multaneously. Developing methods that can effectively handle long-tailed class distributions in conjunction with multi-modal inputs is therefore essential in many real-world applications. In the medical domain, for instance, datasets often contain far more samples from healthy individuals than from patients with specific conditions, while also encompassing diverse datatypes such asimagingdata(e.g., X-rays)alongsideauxiliary informationincluding demographics and clinical histories.