Search engines today present results that are often oblivious to recent shifts in intent. For example, the meaning of the query independence day shifts in early July to a US holiday and to a movie around the time of the box office release. While no studies exactly quantify the magnitude of intent-shifting traffic, studies suggest that news events, seasonal topics, pop culture, etc account for 1/2 the search queries. This paper shows that the signals a search engine receives can be used to both determine that a shift in intent happened, as well as find a result that is now more relevant. We present a meta-algorithm that marries a classifier with a bandit algorithm to achieve regret that depends logarithmically on the number of query impressions, under certain assumptions. We provide strong evidence that this regret is close to the best achievable. Finally, via a series of experiments, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms prior approaches, particularly as the amount of intent-shifting traffic increases.

The low-rank matrix completion problem is a fundamental problem with many important applications. Recently, [4],[13] and [5] obtained the first nontrivial theoretical results for the problem assuming that the observed entries are sampled uniformly at random. Unfortunately, most real-world datasets do not satisfy this assumption, but instead exhibit power-law distributed samples. In this paper, we propose a graph theoretic approach to matrix completion that solves the problem for more realistic sampling models. Our method is simpler to analyze than previous methodswith the analysis reducing to computing the threshold for complete cascades in random graphs, a problem of independent interest. By analyzing the graph theoretic problem, we show that our method achieves exact recovery when the observed entries are sampled from the Chung-Lu-Vu model, which can generate power-lawdistributed graphs. We also hypothesize that our algorithm solves the matrix completion problem from an optimal number of entries for the popular preferentialattachment model and provide strong empirical evidence for the claim. Furthermore, our method is easy to implement and is substantially faster than existing methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on random instanceswhere the low-rank matrix is sampled according to the prevalent random graph models for complex networks and present promising preliminary results on the Netflix challenge dataset.

Existing approaches to nonrigid structure from motion assume that the instantaneous 3D shape of a deforming object is a linear combination of basis shapes, which have to be estimated anew for each video sequence. In contrast, we propose that the evolving 3D structure be described by a linear combination of basis trajectories. The principal advantage of this lateral approach is that we do not need to estimate any basis vectors during computation. Instead, we show that generic bases over trajectories, such as the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) bases, can be used to effectively describe most real motions. This results in a significant reduction in unknowns, and corresponding stability, in estimation. We report empirical performance, quantitatively using motion capture data and qualitatively on several video sequences exhibiting nonrigid motions including piece-wise rigid motion, articulated motion, partially nonrigid motion (such as a facial expression), and highly nonrigid motion (such as a person dancing).

We introduce a kernel-based method for change-point analysis within a sequence of temporal observations. Change-point analysis of an (unlabelled) sample of observations consists in, first, testing whether a change in the distribution occurs within the sample, and second, if a change occurs, estimating the change-point instant after which the distribution of the observations switches from one distribution to another different distribution. We propose a test statistics based upon the maximum kernel Fisher discriminant ratio as a measure of homogeneity between segments. We derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis (no change occurs), and establish the consistency under the alternative hypothesis (a change occurs). This allows to build a statistical hypothesis testing procedure for testing the presence of change-point, with a prescribed false-alarm probability and detection probability tending to one in the large-sample setting. If a change actually occurs, the test statistics also yields an estimator of the change-point location. Promising experimental results in temporal segmentation of mental tasks from BCI data and pop song indexation are presented.

We describe an unsupervised manifold learning algorithm that represents a surface through a compact description of operators that traverse it. The operators are based on matrix exponentials, which are the solution to a system of first-order linear differential equations. The matrix exponents are represented by a basis that is adapted to the statistics of the data so that the infinitesimal generator for a trajectory along the underlying manifold can be produced by linearly composing a few elements. The method is applied to recover topological structure from low dimensional synthetic data, and to model local structure in how natural images change over time and scale.

Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response variables. Our approach, the maximum entropy discrimination latent Dirichlet allocation (MedLDA), utilizes the max-margin principle to train supervised topic models and estimate predictive topic representations that are arguably more suitable for prediction tasks. The general principle of MedLDA can be applied to perform joint max-margin learning and maximum likelihood estimation for arbitrary topic models, directed or undirected, and supervised or unsupervised, when the supervised side information is available. We develop efficient variational methods for posterior inference and parameter estimation, and demonstrate qualitatively and quantitatively the advantages of MedLDA over likelihood-based topic models on movie review and 20 Newsgroups data sets.

Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.

In this paper, we propose causality as a unified framework to explain query answers and non-answers, thus generalizing and extending several previously proposed approaches of provenance and missing query result explanations. We develop our framework starting from the well-studied definition of actual causes by Halpern and Pearl. After identifying some undesirable characteristics of the original definition, we propose functional causes as a refined definition of causality with several desirable properties. These properties allow us to apply our notion of causality in a database context and apply it uniformly to define the causes of query results and their individual contributions in several ways: (i) we can model both provenance as well as non-answers, (ii) we can define explanations as either data in the input relations or relational operations in a query plan, and (iii) we can give graded degrees of responsibility to individual causes, thus allowing us to rank causes. In particular, our approach allows us to explain contributions to relational aggregate functions and to rank causes according to their respective responsibilities. We give complexity results and describe polynomial algorithms for evaluating causality in tractable cases. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the applicability of our framework with several examples. Overall, we develop in this paper the theoretical foundations of causality theory in a database context.

Frequent episode discovery is a popular framework for pattern discovery in event streams. An episode is a partially ordered set of nodes with each node associated with an event type. Efficient (and separate) algorithms exist for episode discovery when the associated partial order is total (serial episode) and trivial (parallel episode). In this paper, we propose efficient algorithms for discovering frequent episodes with general partial orders. These algorithms can be easily specialized to discover serial or parallel episodes. Also, the algorithms are flexible enough to be specialized for mining in the space of certain interesting subclasses of partial orders. We point out that there is an inherent combinatorial explosion in frequent partial order mining and most importantly, frequency alone is not a sufficient measure of interestingness. We propose a new interestingness measure for general partial order episodes and a discovery method based on this measure, for filtering out uninteresting partial orders. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms.

The new social media sites -- blogs, wikis, Flickr and Digg, among others -- underscore the transformation of the Web to a participatory medium in which users are actively creating, evaluating and distributing information. Digg is a social news aggregator which allows users to submit links to, vote on and discuss news stories. Each day Digg selects a handful of stories to feature on its front page. Rather than rely on the opinion of a few editors, Digg aggregates opinions of thousands of its users to decide which stories to promote to the front page. Digg users can designate other users as ``friends'' and easily track friends' activities: what new stories they submitted, commented on or read. The friends interface acts as a \emph{social filtering} system, recommending to user stories his or her friends liked or found interesting. By tracking the votes received by newly submitted stories over time, we showed that social filtering is an effective information filtering approach. Specifically, we showed that (a) users tend to like stories submitted by friends and (b) users tend to like stories their friends read and liked. As a byproduct of social filtering, social networks also play a role in promoting stories to Digg's front page, potentially leading to ``tyranny of the minority'' situation where a disproportionate number of front page stories comes from the same small group of interconnected users. Despite this, social filtering is a promising new technology that can be used to personalize and tailor information to individual users: for example, through personal front pages.