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TabPFN-3: Technical Report

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.


From Data to Action: Accelerating Refinery Optimization with AI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Nowadays refinery optimization utilizes sheer amounts of data, which can be handled with modern Linear Programming (LP) software, but the interpreting and applying the results remains challenging. Large petrochemical companies use massive models, with hundreds of thousands of input matrix elements. The LP solution is mathematically correct, but simplifications are made in the model, and data supply errors may occur. Therefore, further insight is needed to trust the results. The LP solver does not have a memory, so additional understanding could be gained by analyzing historical data and comparing it to the current plan. As such, machine learning approaches were suggested to support decision making based on the LP solution. Among these, Anomaly Detection tools are proposed to be used in tandem with the LP output. A transformed version of the popular ECOD methodology is applied. New methods are proposed to handle high-dimensional data: choosing the most informative pairs. Then, this is used alongside two 2D Anomaly Detection algorithms, revealing several business opportunities and data supply errors in the MOL refinery scheduling and planning architecture.


Open-Ended Task Discovery via Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When applying Bayesian optimization (BO) to scientific workflow, a major yet often overlooked source of uncertainty is the task itself -- namely, what to optimize and how to evaluate it -- which can evolve as evidence accumulates. We introduce Generate-Select-Refine (GSR), a open-ended BO framework that alternates between task generation and task optimization. Starting from a user-provided seed task, GSR generates new tasks in a coarse-to-fine manner while a task-acquisition function schedules optimization. Asymptotically, it concentrates evaluations on the best task, incurring only logarithmic regret overhead relative to single-task BO. We apply GSR to new product development, chemical synthesis scaling, algorithm analysis, and patent repurposing, where it outperforms existing LLM-based optimizers.


Trump's Team Wants Him to Accept an Iran Deal He's Already Rejected

WIRED

As chaotic negotiations over the end of the Iran war continue, US negotiators think they have the framework for a deal in place. Now they just have to sell the president on it. President Donald Trump's negotiators face the arduous task of trying to convince the president that a deal he previously rejected is their best option in Iran . Last month, Trump initially gave his blessing for a so-called "cash for uranium" deal, under which the US would release around $20 billion in frozen funds in exchange for Iran handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sources familiar with the matter tell WIRED. Trump's negotiators, vice president JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, received repeated approvals from the president while they were in Islamabad, giving them confidence a deal was close.


Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GCSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GCSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the two cities. Finally, conformal prediction is integrated with GCSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.


Robotically assembled building blocks could make construction more efficient and sustainable

Robohub

Robotically assembled building blocks could be a more environmentally friendly method for erecting large-scale structures than some existing construction techniques, according to a new study by MIT researchers. The team conducted a feasibility study to evaluate the efficiency of constructing a simple building using "voxels," which are modular 3D subunits that assemble into complex, durable structures. After studying the performance of multiple voxels, the researchers developed three new designs intended to streamline building construction. They also produced a robotic assembler and a user-friendly interface for generating voxel-based building layouts and feeding instructions to the robots. Their results indicate this voxel-based robotic assembly system could reduce embodied carbon -- all of the carbon emitted during the lifecycle of building materials -- by as much as 82 percent, compared with popular techniques like 3D concrete printing, precast modular concrete, and steel framing.


Nine coal miners die in gas explosion in Colombia

BBC News

Nine people have died in an explosion at a coal mine in Colombia in the latest fatal accident to hit the country's mining sector. Emergency workers said they had rescued six miners from the shafts in Sutatausa, north of the capital, Bogotá. Colombia's national mining agency said a build-up of gases was thought to have caused the explosion at 16:00 (21:00 GMT) on Monday. It also published a list of recommendations it said it had made to the mine's operators after an inspection less than a month ago, in which it had warned of a potentially dangerous gas build-up. Many mines in Colombia are operated informally and without proper safety standards.


An Efficient Spatial Branch-and-Bound Algorithm for Global Optimization of Gaussian Process Posterior Mean Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the deterministic global optimization of trained Gaussian process posterior mean functions over hyperrectangular domains. Although the posterior mean function has a compact closed-form representation, its global optimization is challenging because it remains nonlinear and nonconvex. Existing exact deterministic approaches become increasingly difficult to scale as the number of training data points grows, leading to approximation-based methods that improve tractability by optimizing a modified (inexact) objective. In this work, we propose PALM-Mean, a piecewise-analytic lower-bounding framework embedded in reduced-space spatial branch-and-bound. At each node, kernel terms that are locally important are replaced by a sign-aware piecewise-linear relaxation in an appropriate scalar distance variable, while the remaining terms are bounded analytically in closed form. We show this hybrid approach yields a valid lower bound for the posterior mean, while limiting the size of the branch-and-bound subproblems. We establish validity of the node lower bounds and $\varepsilon$-global convergence of the resulting algorithm. Computational results on synthetic benchmarks and real-world application problems show that PALM-Mean improves scalability relative to representative general-purpose deterministic global solvers, particularly as the number of training data points increases.


Callaway's new golf driver face combines titanium, carbon fiber, and a military-grade polymer found in an unlikely way

Popular Science

Gear Fitness Gear Callaway's new golf driver face combines titanium, carbon fiber, and a military-grade polymer found in an unlikely way Callaway's new Quantum drivers use the Tri-Force Face, a three-layer design bonding titanium and carbon fiber with a polymer the R&D team found in military research. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The three-layered construction allows both carbon and titanium to shine. We may earn revenue from the products available on this page and participate in affiliate programs. Golf driver faces have been almost exclusively titanium for more than three decades, with some detours into carbon fiber .


Do not open until July 4, 2276: U.S. buries a 'zombie-proof' time capsule

Popular Science

Do not open until July 4, 2276: U.S. buries a'zombie-proof' time capsule The durable stainless steel container will be buried in Philadelphia for the country's 250th birthday. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The time capsule will include items from all 50 states and six territories. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. It's been 250 years since the United States decided it was no longer interested in being part of Great Britain.