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Can LLMs Learn Macroeconomic Narratives from Social Media?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets containing posts from X (formerly Twitter) which capture economy-related narratives (Data will be shared upon paper acceptance). Employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we extract and summarize narratives from the tweets. We test their predictive power for $\textit{macroeconomic}$ forecasting by incorporating the tweets' or the extracted narratives' representations in downstream financial prediction tasks. Our work highlights the challenges in improving macroeconomic models with narrative data, paving the way for the research community to realistically address this important challenge. From a scientific perspective, our investigation offers valuable insights and NLP tools for narrative extraction and summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs), contributing to future research on the role of narratives in economics.


InSaAF: Incorporating Safety through Accuracy and Fairness | Are LLMs ready for the Indian Legal Domain?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in language technology and Artificial Intelligence have resulted in numerous Language Models being proposed to perform various tasks in the legal domain ranging from predicting judgments to generating summaries. Despite their immense potential, these models have been proven to learn and exhibit societal biases and make unfair predictions. In this study, we explore the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform legal tasks in the Indian landscape when social factors are involved. We present a novel metric, $\beta$-weighted $\textit{Legal Safety Score ($LSS_{\beta}$)}$, which encapsulates both the fairness and accuracy aspects of the LLM. We assess LLMs' safety by considering its performance in the $\textit{Binary Statutory Reasoning}$ task and its fairness exhibition with respect to various axes of disparities in the Indian society. Task performance and fairness scores of LLaMA and LLaMA--2 models indicate that the proposed $LSS_{\beta}$ metric can effectively determine the readiness of a model for safe usage in the legal sector. We also propose finetuning pipelines, utilising specialised legal datasets, as a potential method to mitigate bias and improve model safety. The finetuning procedures on LLaMA and LLaMA--2 models increase the $LSS_{\beta}$, improving their usability in the Indian legal domain. Our code is publicly released.


Unveiling the Truth and Facilitating Change: Towards Agent-based Large-scale Social Movement Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social media has emerged as a cornerstone of social movements, wielding significant influence in driving societal change. Simulating the response of the public and forecasting the potential impact has become increasingly important. However, existing methods for simulating such phenomena encounter challenges concerning their efficacy and efficiency in capturing the behaviors of social movement participants. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid framework HiSim for social media user simulation, wherein users are categorized into two types. Core users are driven by Large Language Models, while numerous ordinary users are modeled by deductive agent-based models. We further construct a Twitter-like environment to replicate their response dynamics following trigger events. Subsequently, we develop a multi-faceted benchmark SoMoSiMu-Bench for evaluation and conduct comprehensive experiments across real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our method.


BirdSet: A Dataset and Benchmark for Classification in Avian Bioacoustics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as a powerful tool in avian bioacoustics to assess environmental health. To maximize the potential of cost-effective and minimal-invasive passive acoustic monitoring (PAM), DL models must analyze bird vocalizations across a wide range of species and environmental conditions. However, data fragmentation challenges a comprehensive evaluation of generalization performance. Therefore, we introduce the BirdSet dataset, comprising approximately 520,000 global bird recordings for training and over 400 hours of PAM recordings for testing. Our benchmark offers baselines for several DL models to enhance comparability and consolidate research across studies, along with code implementations that include comprehensive training and evaluation protocols.


ART: Automatic Red-teaming for Text-to-Image Models to Protect Benign Users

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large-scale pre-trained generative models are taking the world by storm, due to their abilities in generating creative content. Meanwhile, safeguards for these generative models are developed, to protect users' rights and safety, most of which are designed for large language models. Existing methods primarily focus on jailbreak and adversarial attacks, which mainly evaluate the model's safety under malicious prompts. Recent work found that manually crafted safe prompts can unintentionally trigger unsafe generations. To further systematically evaluate the safety risks of text-to-image models, we propose a novel Automatic Red-Teaming framework, ART. Our method leverages both vision language model and large language model to establish a connection between unsafe generations and their prompts, thereby more efficiently identifying the model's vulnerabilities. With our comprehensive experiments, we reveal the toxicity of the popular open-source text-to-image models. The experiments also validate the effectiveness, adaptability, and great diversity of ART. Additionally, we introduce three large-scale red-teaming datasets for studying the safety risks associated with text-to-image models. Datasets and models can be found in https://github.com/GuanlinLee/ART.


NovelQA: Benchmarking Question Answering on Documents Exceeding 200K Tokens

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has introduced a new frontier in natural language processing, particularly in understanding and processing long-context information. However, the evaluation of these models' long-context abilities remains a challenge due to the limitations of current benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce NovelQA, a benchmark specifically designed to test the capabilities of LLMs with extended texts. Constructed from English novels, NovelQA offers a unique blend of complexity, length, and narrative coherence, making it an ideal tool for assessing deep textual understanding in LLMs. This paper presents the design and construction of NovelQA, highlighting its manual annotation, and diverse question types. Our evaluation of Long-context LLMs on NovelQA reveals significant insights into the models' performance, particularly emphasizing the challenges they face with multi-hop reasoning, detail-oriented questions, and extremely long input with an average length more than 200,000 tokens. The results underscore the necessity for further advancements in LLMs to improve their long-context comprehension.


Towards Bidirectional Human-AI Alignment: A Systematic Review for Clarifications, Framework, and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in general-purpose AI have highlighted the importance of guiding AI systems towards the intended goals, ethical principles, and values of individuals and groups, a concept broadly recognized as alignment. However, the lack of clarified definitions and scopes of human-AI alignment poses a significant obstacle, hampering collaborative efforts across research domains to achieve this alignment. In particular, ML- and philosophy-oriented alignment research often views AI alignment as a static, unidirectional process (i.e., aiming to ensure that AI systems' objectives match humans) rather than an ongoing, mutual alignment problem [429]. This perspective largely neglects the long-term interaction and dynamic changes of alignment. To understand these gaps, we introduce a systematic review of over 400 papers published between 2019 and January 2024, spanning multiple domains such as Human-Computer Interaction (HCI), Natural Language Processing (NLP), Machine Learning (ML), and others. We characterize, define and scope human-AI alignment. From this, we present a conceptual framework of "Bidirectional Human-AI Alignment" to organize the literature from a human-centered perspective. This framework encompasses both 1) conventional studies of aligning AI to humans that ensures AI produces the intended outcomes determined by humans, and 2) a proposed concept of aligning humans to AI, which aims to help individuals and society adjust to AI advancements both cognitively and behaviorally. Additionally, we articulate the key findings derived from literature analysis, including discussions about human values, interaction techniques, and evaluations. To pave the way for future studies, we envision three key challenges for future directions and propose examples of potential future solutions.


Quantifying Local Model Validity using Active Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Real-world applications of machine learning models are often subject to legal or policy-based regulations. Some of these regulations require ensuring the validity of the model, i.e., the approximation error being smaller than a threshold. A global metric is generally too insensitive to determine the validity of a specific prediction, whereas evaluating local validity is costly since it requires gathering additional data.We propose learning the model error to acquire a local validity estimate while reducing the amount of required data through active learning. Using model validation benchmarks, we provide empirical evidence that the proposed method can lead to an error model with sufficient discriminative properties using a relatively small amount of data. Furthermore, an increased sensitivity to local changes of the validity bounds compared to alternative approaches is demonstrated.


A Complete Survey on LLM-based AI Chatbots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The past few decades have witnessed an upsurge in data, forming the foundation for data-hungry, learning-based AI technology. Conversational agents, often referred to as AI chatbots, rely heavily on such data to train large language models (LLMs) and generate new content (knowledge) in response to user prompts. With the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, LLM-based chatbots have set new standards in the AI community. This paper presents a complete survey of the evolution and deployment of LLM-based chatbots in various sectors. We first summarize the development of foundational chatbots, followed by the evolution of LLMs, and then provide an overview of LLM-based chatbots currently in use and those in the development phase. Recognizing AI chatbots as tools for generating new knowledge, we explore their diverse applications across various industries. We then discuss the open challenges, considering how the data used to train the LLMs and the misuse of the generated knowledge can cause several issues. Finally, we explore the future outlook to augment their efficiency and reliability in numerous applications. By addressing key milestones and the present-day context of LLM-based chatbots, our survey invites readers to delve deeper into this realm, reflecting on how their next generation will reshape conversational AI.


Sam Bankman-Fried funded a group with racist ties. FTX wants its 5m back

The Guardian

Multiple events hosted at a historic former hotel in Berkeley, California, have brought together people from intellectual movements popular at the highest levels in Silicon Valley while platforming prominent people linked to scientific racism, the Guardian reveals. But because of alleged financial ties between the non-profit that owns the building – Lightcone Infrastructure (Lightcone) – and jailed crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried, the administrators of FTX, Bankman-Fried's failed crypto exchange, are demanding the return of almost 5m that new court filings allege were used to bankroll the purchase of the property. During the last year, Lightcone and its director, Oliver Habryka, have made the 20m Lighthaven Campus available for conferences and workshops associated with the "longtermism", "rationalism" and "effective altruism" (EA) communities, all of which often see empowering the tech sector, its elites and its beliefs as crucial to human survival in the far future. At these events, movement influencers rub shoulders with startup founders and tech-funded San Francisco politicians – as well as people linked to eugenics and scientific racism. Since acquiring the Lighthaven property – formerly the Rose Garden Inn – in late 2022, Lightcone has transformed it into a walled, surveilled compound without attracting much notice outside the subculture it exists to promote.