Law
Differentiable sorting for censored time-to-event data.
Survival analysis is a crucial semi-supervised task in machine learning with significant real-world applications, especially in healthcare. The most common approach to survival analysis, Cox's partial likelihood, can be interpreted as a ranking model optimized on a lower bound of the concordance index. We follow these connections further, with listwise ranking losses that allow for a relaxation of the pairwise independence assumption. Given the inherent transitivity of ranking, we explore differentiable sorting networks as a means to introduce a stronger transitive inductive bias during optimization.
AMDP: An Adaptive Detection Procedure for False Discovery Rate Control in High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis
High-dimensional mediation analysis is often associated with a multiple testing problem for detecting significant mediators. Assessing the uncertainty of this detecting process via false discovery rate (FDR) has garnered great interest. To control the FDR in multiple testing, two essential steps are involved: ranking and selection. Existing approaches either construct p-values without calibration or disregard the joint information across tests, leading to conservation in FDR control or non-optimal ranking rules for multiple hypotheses. In this paper, we develop an adaptive mediation detection procedure (referred to as AMDP) to identify relevant mediators while asymptotically controlling the FDR in high-dimensional mediation analysis. AMDP produces the optimal rule for ranking hypotheses and proposes a data-driven strategy to determine the threshold for mediator selection. This novel method captures information from the proportions of composite null hypotheses and the distribution of p-values, which turns the high dimensionality into an advantage instead of a limitation. The numerical studies on synthetic and real data sets illustrate the performances of AMDP compared with existing approaches.
Temporal Causal Mediation through a Point Process: Direct and Indirect Effects of Healthcare Interventions
Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been studied in a static setting. In healthcare, data come in the form of complex, irregularly sampled time-series, with dynamic interdependencies between a treatment, outcomes, and mediators across time. Existing approaches to dynamic causal mediation analysis are limited to regular measurement intervals, simple parametric models, and disregard long-range mediator--outcome interactions. To address these limitations, we propose a non-parametric mediator--outcome model where the mediator is assumed to be a temporal point process that interacts with the outcome process. With this model, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of an external intervention on the outcome, showing how each of these affects the whole future trajectory. We demonstrate on semi-synthetic data that our method can accurately estimate direct and indirect effects.
The Harvard USPTO Patent Dataset: A Large-Scale, Well-Structured, and Multi-Purpose Corpus of Patent Applications
Innovation is a major driver of economic and social development, and information about many kinds of innovation is embedded in semi-structured data from patents and patent applications. Though the impact and novelty of innovations expressed in patent data are difficult to measure through traditional means, machine learning offers a promising set of techniques for evaluating novelty, summarizing contributions, and embedding semantics. In this paper, we introduce the Harvard USPTO Patent Dataset (HUPD), a large-scale, well-structured, and multi-purpose corpus of English-language patent applications filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2004 and 2018. With more than 4.5 million patent documents, HUPD is two to three times larger than comparable corpora. Unlike other NLP patent datasets, HUPD contains the inventor-submitted versions of patent applications, not the final versions of granted patents, allowing us to study patentability at the time of filing using NLP methods for the first time.
Censored Sampling of Diffusion Models Using 3 Minutes of Human Feedback
Diffusion models have recently shown remarkable success in high-quality image generation. Sometimes, however, a pre-trained diffusion model exhibits partial misalignment in the sense that the model can generate good images, but it sometimes outputs undesirable images. If so, we simply need to prevent the generation of the bad images, and we call this task censoring. In this work, we present censored generation with a pre-trained diffusion model using a reward model trained on minimal human feedback. We show that censoring can be accomplished with extreme human feedback efficiency and that labels generated with a mere few minutes of human feedback are sufficient.
US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack
Savvy countries will discover there's a way to mitigate the harm incurred by Trump's tariffs--and it'll boost their own economies while making goods cheaper too. In 2026, the leaders of America's (former) trading partners are going to have to grapple with the political consequences of tit-for-tat tariffs. A tariff is a tax paid by consumers, and if there's one thing the past four years have taught us, it's that the public will not forgive a politician who presides over a period of rising prices, no matter what the cause. Luckily for the political fortunes of the world's leaders, there is a better way to respond to tariffs. Tit-for-tat tariffs are a 19th-century tactic, and we live in a 21st-century world--a world where the most profitable lines of business of the most profitable US companies are all vulnerable to a simple legal change that will make things cheaper for billions of people, all over the world, including in the US, at the expense of the companies whose CEOs posed with Trump on the inaugural dais.