In practice, there are often explicit constraints on what representations or decisions are acceptable in an application of machine learning. For example it may be a legal requirement that a decision must not favour a particular group. Alternatively it can be that that representation of data must not have identifying information. We address these two related issues by learning flexible representations that minimize the capability of an adversarial critic. This adversary is trying to predict the relevant sensitive variable from the representation, and so minimizing the performance of the adversary ensures there is little or no information in the representation about the sensitive variable. We demonstrate this adversarial approach on two problems: making decisions free from discrimination and removing private information from images. We formulate the adversarial model as a minimax problem, and optimize that minimax objective using a stochastic gradient alternate min-max optimizer. We demonstrate the ability to provide discriminant free representations for standard test problems, and compare with previous state of the art methods for fairness, showing statistically significant improvement across most cases. The flexibility of this method is shown via a novel problem: removing annotations from images, from unaligned training examples of annotated and unannotated images, and with no a priori knowledge of the form of annotation provided to the model.

Clustering is an essential data mining tool that aims to discover inherent cluster structure in data. As such, the study of clusterability, which evaluates whether data possesses such structure, is an integral part of cluster analysis. Yet, despite their central role in the theory and application of clustering, current notions of clusterability fall short in two crucial aspects that render them impractical; most are computationally infeasible and others fail to classify the structure of real datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to clusterability evaluation that is both computationally efficient and successfully captures the structure of real data. Our method applies multimodality tests to the (one-dimensional) set of pairwise distances based on the original, potentially high-dimensional data. We present extensive analyses of our approach for both the Dip and Silverman multimodality tests on real data as well as 17,000 simulations, demonstrating the success of our approach as the first practical notion of clusterability.

Computer Science Division, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 Dept. of Physics & MIT Kavli Institute, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 and Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, 16-17 St. Ebbe's str., Oxford OX1 1PT, UK Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to humanity, and it is therefore worthwhile to investigate how to maximize these benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. This article gives numerous examples (which should by no means be construed as an exhaustive list) of such worthwhile research aimed at ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial. Artificial intelligence (AI) research has explored a variety of problems and approaches since its inception, but for the last 20 years or so has been focused on the problems surrounding the construction of intelligent agents - systems that perceive and act in some environment. In this context, the criterion for intelligence is related to statistical and economic notions of rationality-colloquially, the ability to make good decisions, plans, or inferences. The adoption of probabilistic representations and statistical learning methods has led to a large degree of integration and cross-fertilization between AI, machine learning, statistics, control theory, neuroscience, and other fields. The establishment of shared theoretical frameworks, combined with the availability of data and processing power, has yielded remarkable successes in various component tasks such as speech recognition, image classification, autonomous vehicles, machine translation, legged locomotion, and question-answering systems. As capabilities in these areas and others cross the threshold from laboratory research to economically valuable technologies, a virtuous cycle takes hold whereby even small improvements in performance are worth large sums of money, prompting greater investments in research. There is now a broad consensus that AI research is progressing steadily, and that its impact on society is likely to increase.

The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning, and models in big data was held in 2015 in Canada, under the general direction of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, with major funding from, and most activities located at, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences. This paper gives an overview of the topics covered, describing challenges and strategies that seem common to many different areas of application, and including some examples of applications to make these challenges and strategies more concrete.

Recent years have seen significant efforts in the area of Cross Language Information Retrieval (CLIR) for text retrieval. This work initially focused on formally published content, but more recently research has begun to concentrate on CLIR for informal social media content. However, despite the current expansion in online multimedia archives, there has been little work on CLIR for this content. While there has been some limited work on Cross-Language Video Retrieval (CLVR) for professional videos, such as documentaries or TV news broadcasts, there has to date, been no significant investigation of CLVR for the rapidly growing archives of informal user generated (UGC) content. Key differences between such UGC and professionally produced content are the nature and structure of the textual UGC metadata associated with it, as well as the form and quality of the content itself. In this setting, retrieval effectiveness may not only suffer from translation errors common to all CLIR tasks, but also recognition errors associated with the automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems used to transcribe the spoken content of the video and with the informality and inconsistency of the associated user-created metadata for each video. This work proposes and evaluates techniques to improve CLIR effectiveness of such noisy UGC content. Our experimental investigation shows that different sources of evidence, e.g. the content from different fields of the structured metadata, significantly affect CLIR effectiveness. Results from our experiments also show that each metadata field has a varying robustness to query expansion (QE) and hence can have a negative impact on the CLIR effectiveness. Our work proposes a novel adaptive QE technique that predicts the most reliable source for expansion and shows how this technique can be effective for improving the CLIR effectiveness for UGC content.

The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is non-trivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine information from different sources. Most statistical techniques currently used for record linkage are derived from a seminal paper by Fellegi and Sunter (1969). These techniques usually assume independence in the matching statuses of record pairs to derive estimation procedures and optimal point estimators. We argue that this independence assumption is unreasonable and instead target a bipartite matching between the two datafiles as our parameter of interest. Bayesian implementations allow us to quantify uncertainty on the matching decisions and derive a variety of point estimators using different loss functions. We propose partial Bayes estimates that allow uncertain parts of the bipartite matching to be left unresolved. We evaluate our approach to record linkage using a variety of challenging scenarios and show that it outperforms the traditional methodology. We illustrate the advantages of our methods merging two datafiles on casualties from the civil war of El Salvador.

Acts of prevention and fight against money laundering (ML) crimes are prioritized by almost every government in the world, at the same level of the most relevant global issues. Money laundering is a crime that typically consists in making a certain illegal financial gain into a legal gain. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC) the annual global estimate of laundered money is about 2% - 5% of the Gross World Product, or US$800 billion - US$2 trillion [1]. As if the financial volume were not enough, another reason for governments to focus on this crime is for the fact that it is clearly connected to other types of crimes such as illegal drug trade, fraud, corruption, kidnapping, terrorism, arms smuggling, among others. Most countries' financial authorities, usually Central Banks, are responsible for controlling and defining antimoney laundering (AML) regulations, demanding from financial institutions the implementation of procedures that apply the defined norms.

Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to humanity, and it is therefore worthwhile to investigate how to maximize these benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. This article gives numerous examples (which should by no means be construed as an exhaustive list) of such worthwhile research aimed at ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial.

Imagine a random walk that outputs a state only when visiting it for the first time. The observed output is therefore a repeat-censored version of the underlying walk, and consists of a permutation of the states or a prefix of it. We call this model initial-visit emitting random walk (INVITE). Prior work has shown that the random walks with such a repeat-censoring mechanism explain well human behavior in memory search tasks, which is of great interest in both the study of human cognition and various clinical applications. However, parameter estimation in INVITE is challenging, because naive likelihood computation by marginalizing over infinitely many hidden random walk trajectories is intractable. In this paper, we propose the first efficient maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for INVITE by decomposing the censored output into a series of absorbing random walks. We also prove theoretical properties of the MLE including identifiability and consistency. We show that INVITE outperforms several existing methods on real-world human response data from memory search tasks.

There is a widespread need for statistical methods that can analyze high-dimensional datasets with- out imposing restrictive or opaque modeling assumptions. This paper describes a domain-general data analysis method called CrossCat. CrossCat infers multiple non-overlapping views of the data, each consisting of a subset of the variables, and uses a separate nonparametric mixture to model each view. CrossCat is based on approximately Bayesian inference in a hierarchical, nonparamet- ric model for data tables. This model consists of a Dirichlet process mixture over the columns of a data table in which each mixture component is itself an independent Dirichlet process mixture over the rows; the inner mixture components are simple parametric models whose form depends on the types of data in the table. CrossCat combines strengths of mixture modeling and Bayesian net- work structure learning. Like mixture modeling, CrossCat can model a broad class of distributions by positing latent variables, and produces representations that can be efficiently conditioned and sampled from for prediction. Like Bayesian networks, CrossCat represents the dependencies and independencies between variables, and thus remains accurate when there are multiple statistical signals. Inference is done via a scalable Gibbs sampling scheme; this paper shows that it works well in practice. This paper also includes empirical results on heterogeneous tabular data of up to 10 million cells, such as hospital cost and quality measures, voting records, unemployment rates, gene expression measurements, and images of handwritten digits. CrossCat infers structure that is consistent with accepted findings and common-sense knowledge in multiple domains and yields predictive accuracy competitive with generative, discriminative, and model-free alternatives.