The ViewGen model of belief ascription assumes that each agent involved in a conversation has a belief space which includes models of what other parties to the conversation believe. The distinctive notion is that a basic procedure, called belief ascription, allows belief spaces to be amalgamated so as to model the updating and augmentation of belief environments. In this paper we extend the ViewGen model to a more general account of reference phenomena, in particular by the notion of a reachable ascription set (RAS) that links intensional objects across belief environments so as to locate the most heuristically plausible referent at a given point in a conversation. The key notion is the location and attachment of entities that may be under different descriptions, the consequent updating of the system's beliefs about other agents by default, and the role in that process of a speaker's and hearer's protocols that ensure that the choice is the appropriate one. An important characteristic of this model is that each communicator considers nothing beyond his own belief space. A conclusion we shall draw is that traditional binary distinctions in this area (like de dicto/de re and attributive/referential) neither classify the examples effectively nor do they assist in locating referents, whereas the single procedure we suggest does both. We also suggest ways in which this analysis can also illuminate other traditional distinctions such as referential and attributive use. The description here is not on an implemented system with results but a theoretical tool to be implemented within an established dialogue platform (such as Wilks et al. 2011).

Organizations play a pivotal role in the dynamics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Current organizational life-cycle models do not adequately consider the impact of propensities (deeply ingrained preferences and patterns of behavior) on organizational culture and evolution. On a global basis, the predominant thinking modes in organizations are driven by senior executives, marketers, financial experts, legal resources, and the engineers and scientists that create our technology-rich world. Each of these groups has, in aggregate, embedded propensities or tendencies that profoundly shape decision-making patterns and overall social dynamics. Dominant propensities can make organizations vulnerable to risks by inhibiting the level of systems thinking and networking necessary to ensure integration within a global socio-ecological context. The spectrum of propensities within an organization shapes the relative resilience of its human and management systems, and ultimately determines organizational effectiveness. This paper proposes a model for organizational evolution that links the role of propensities to adaptability and resilience. Conscious effort to expand the intelligence of organizations through diversification of propensities better equips organizations to achieve adaptability and sustainability.

We study auctions with severe bounds on the communication allowed: each bidder may only transmit t bits of information to the auctioneer. We consider both welfare- and profit-maximizing auctions under this communication restriction. For both measures, we determine the optimal auction and show that the loss incurred relative to unconstrained auctions is mild. We prove non-surprising properties of these kinds of auctions, e.g., that in optimal mechanisms bidders simply report the interval in which their valuation lies in, as well as some surprising properties, e.g., that asymmetric auctions are better than symmetric ones and that multi-round auctions reduce the communication complexity only by a linear factor.

Annotated corpora have stimulated great advances in the language sciences. The time is ripe to bring that same stimulation, and consequent benefits, to computational approaches to narrative. I describe an effort to construct a corpus of semantically annotated stories. I outline the structure of the corpus, a structure which colloquially can be described as a "handful of handfuls." One handful of the corpus has already been constructed, viz., 18k words of Russian folktales. There are two handfuls under construction: legal cases focused on the area of probable cause, and stories from Islamist Extremist Jihadists. Four more handfuls are being planned: folktales from Chinese, English, and a West Asian culture, and stories of international conventional and cyber conflicts. There are numerous additional handfuls under discussion. The main focus of the corpus so far has been on textual materials that are annotated for their surface semantics using conventional annotation tools and techniques; nonetheless, there are numerous novel dimensions along which the corpus might grow and become useful for different communities. In particular I propose for discussion the outlines of a few novel sources, annotation schemes, and collection methodologies that could potentially make the corpus of great use to the interactive narrative or narrative generation communities.

In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentence-internal temporal relations. Temporal inference is relevant for practical NLP applications which either extract or synthesize temporal information (e.g., summarisation, question answering). Our method bypasses the need for manual coding by exploiting the presence of markers like after", which overtly signal a temporal relation. We first show that models trained on main and subordinate clauses connected with a temporal marker achieve good performance on a pseudo-disambiguation task simulating temporal inference (during testing the temporal marker is treated as unseen and the models must select the right marker from a set of possible candidates). Secondly, we assess whether the proposed approach holds promise for the semi-automatic creation of temporal annotations. Specifically, we use a model trained on noisy and approximate data (i.e., main and subordinate clauses) to predict intra-sentential relations present in TimeBank, a corpus annotated rich temporal information. Our experiments compare and contrast several probabilistic models differing in their feature space, linguistic assumptions and data requirements. We evaluate performance against gold standard corpora and also against human subjects.

We study an approach to policy selection for large relational Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We consider a variant of approximate policy iteration (API) that replaces the usual value-function learning step with a learning step in policy space. This is advantageous in domains where good policies are easier to represent and learn than the corresponding value functions, which is often the case for the relational MDPs we are interested in. In order to apply API to such problems, we introduce a relational policy language and corresponding learner. In addition, we introduce a new bootstrapping routine for goal-based planning domains, based on random walks. Such bootstrapping is necessary for many large relational MDPs, where reward is extremely sparse, as API is ineffective in such domains when initialized with an uninformed policy. Our experiments show that the resulting system is able to find good policies for a number of classical planning domains and their stochastic variants by solving them as extremely large relational MDPs. The experiments also point to some limitations of our approach, suggesting future work.

Concept Analysis provides a principled approach to effective management of wide area information systems, such as the Nebula File System and Interface. This not only offers evidence to support the assertion that a digital library is a bounded collection of incommensurate information sources in a logical space, but also sheds light on techniques for collaboration through coordinated access to the shared organization of knowledge.

PAQ8 is an open source lossless data compression algorithm that currently achieves the best compression rates on many benchmarks. This report presents a detailed description of PAQ8 from a statistical machine learning perspective. It shows that it is possible to understand some of the modules of PAQ8 and use this understanding to improve the method. However, intuitive statistical explanations of the behavior of other modules remain elusive. We hope the description in this report will be a starting point for discussions that will increase our understanding, lead to improvements to PAQ8, and facilitate a transfer of knowledge from PAQ8 to other machine learning methods, such a recurrent neural networks and stochastic memoizers. Finally, the report presents a broad range of new applications of PAQ to machine learning tasks including language modeling and adaptive text prediction, adaptive game playing, classification, and compression using features from the field of deep learning.

In this paper we bring to bear some new tools from statistical learning on the analysis of roll call data. We present a new data-driven model for roll call voting that is geometric in nature. We construct the model by adapting the "Partition Decoupling Method," an unsupervised learning technique originally developed for the analysis of families of time series, to produce a multiscale geometric description of a weighted network associated to a set of roll call votes. Central to this approach is the quantitative notion of a "motivation," a cluster-based and learned basis element that serves as a building block in the representation of roll call data. Motivations enable the formulation of a quantitative description of ideology and their data-dependent nature makes possible a quantitative analysis of the evolution of ideological factors. This approach is generally applicable to roll call data and we apply it in particular to the historical roll call voting of the U.S. House and Senate. This methodology provides a mechanism for estimating the dimension of the underlying action space. We determine that the dominant factors form a low- (one- or two-) dimensional representation with secondary factors adding higher-dimensional features. In this way our work supports and extends the findings of both Poole-Rosenthal and Heckman-Snyder concerning the dimensionality of the action space. We give a detailed analysis of several individual Senates and use the AdaBoost technique from statistical learning to determine those votes with the most powerful discriminatory value. When used as a predictive model, this geometric view significantly outperforms spatial models such as the Poole-Rosenthal DW-NOMINATE model and the Heckman-Snyder 6-factor model, both in raw accuracy as well as Aggregate Proportional Reduced Error (APRE).

Humans are confronted with an increasingly complex array of ingestion substances and dietary choices that influence health and well being. However, even with strong medical evidence that clearly links ingestion strategies and heath consequences, the general public struggles to make health-optimizing ingestion decisions. Based on our literature review, we delineate a typology of barriers to formulating health-optimizing ingestion strategies. We propose that the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) as “decision management” (AI-DM) technology into the ingestion decision-making network would increase the likelihood of more predictable and optimized health outcomes. Also, we delineate the key informational constituencies needed to enable a comprehensive and effective AI-DM system. While no author has yet proposed AI in the particular context discussed in this paper, the theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this might be possible. We conclude by discussing areas for additional research.