This article focuses on the problem of patterns of life (POL), which emerge from human social systems. It describes conflicting requirements for this problem and potential AI solutions.

Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include economic interactions linking financial instruments and patterns of reciprocity in gang violence. In these cases, we are limited to noisy observations of events associated with each node. To enable analysis of these implicit networks, we develop a probabilistic model that combines mutually-exciting point processes with random graph models. We show how the Poisson superposition principle enables an elegant auxiliary variable formulation and a fully-Bayesian, parallel inference algorithm. We evaluate this new model empirically on several datasets.

Inspired by a two-level theory that unifies agenda setting and ideological framing, we propose supervised hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation (SHLDA) which jointly captures documents' multi-level topic structure and their polar response variables. Our model extends the nested Chinese restaurant process to discover a tree-structured topic hierarchy and uses both per-topic hierarchical and per-word lexical regression parameters to model the response variables. Experiments in a political domain and on sentiment analysis tasks show that SHLDA improves predictive accuracy while adding a new dimension of insight into how topics under discussion are framed.

We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two firms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent firms' potential anti-competitive behaviour and its effect on the market. The Antitrust Authority's decision process is modelled using a Bayesian network where both the relational structure and the parameters of the model are estimated from a data set provided by the Authority itself. A number of economic variables that influence this decision process are also included in the model. We analyse how monitoring by the Antitrust Authority affects firms' strategies about cooperation. Firms' strategies are modelled as a repeated prisoner's dilemma using object-oriented Bayesian networks. We show how the integration of firms' decision process and external market information can be modelled in this way. Various decision scenarios and strategies are illustrated.

Bayesian optimization (BO) aims to minimize a given blackbox function using a model that is updated whenever new evidence about the function becomes available. Here, we address the problem of BO under partially right-censored response data, where in some evaluations we only obtain a lower bound on the function value. The ability to handle such response data allows us to adaptively censor costly function evaluations in minimization problems where the cost of a function evaluation corresponds to the function value. One important application giving rise to such censored data is the runtime-minimizing variant of the algorithm configuration problem: finding settings of a given parametric algorithm that minimize the runtime required for solving problem instances from a given distribution. We demonstrate that terminating slow algorithm runs prematurely and handling the resulting right-censored observations can substantially improve the state of the art in model-based algorithm configuration.

Judea Pearl was the first to propose a definition of actual causation using causal models. A number of authors have suggested that an adequate account of actual causation must appeal not only to causal structure, but also to considerations of normality. In earlier work, we provided a definition of actual causation using extended causal models, which include information about both causal structure and normality. Extended causal models are potentially very complex. In this paper, we show how it is possible to achieve a compact representation of extended causal models.

Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These techniques learn a utility function that explains the example behavior and can then be used to accurately predict or imitate future behavior in similar observed or unobserved situations. In this work, we consider similar tasks in competitive and cooperative multi-agent domains. Here, unlike single-agent settings, a player cannot myopically maximize its reward; it must speculate on how the other agents may act to influence the game's outcome. Employing the game-theoretic notion of regret and the principle of maximum entropy, we introduce a technique for predicting and generalizing behavior.

As large-scale theft of data from corporate servers is becoming increasingly common, it becomes interesting to examine alternatives to the paradigm of centralizing sensitive data into large databases. Instead, one could use cryptography and distributed computation so that sensitive data can be supplied and processed in encrypted form, and only the final result is made known. In this paper, we examine how such a paradigm can be used to implement constraint satisfaction, a technique that can solve a broad class of AI problems such as resource allocation, planning, scheduling, and diagnosis. Most previous work on privacy in constraint satisfaction only attempted to protect specific types of information, in particular the feasibility of particular combinations of decisions. We formalize and extend these restricted notions of privacy by introducing four types of private information, including the feasibility of decisions and the final decisions made, but also the identities of the participants and the topology of the problem. We present distributed algorithms that allow computing solutions to constraint satisfaction problems while maintaining these four types of privacy. We formally prove the privacy properties of these algorithms, and show experiments that compare their respective performance on benchmark problems.

This paper advances a framework for modeling the component interactions between cognitive and social aspects of scientific creativity and technological innovation. Specifically, it aims to characterize Innovation Networks; those networks that involve the interplay of people, ideas and organizations to create new, technologically feasible, commercially-realizable products, processes and organizational structures. The tri-partite framework captures networks of ideas (Concept Level), people (Individual Level) and social structures (Social-Organizational Level) and the interactions between these levels. At the concept level, new ideas are the nodes that are created and linked, kept open for further investigation or closed if solved by actors at the individual or organizational levels. At the individual level, the nodes are actors linked by shared worldviews (based on shared professional, educational, experiential backgrounds) who are the builders of the concept level. At the social-organizational level, the nodes are organizations linked by common efforts on a given project (e.g., a company-university collaboration) that by virtue of their intellectual property or rules of governance constrain the actions of individuals (at the Individual Level) or ideas (at the Concept Level). After describing this framework and its implications we paint a number of scenarios to flesh out how it can be applied.

This paper presents a supervised bayesian approach to model expertise in online forums with application to question routing. The proposed method extends the well-known sLDA model to the multi-task case, accounting for a supervised stage with multiple outputs per document corresponding to the users of the system. A study of the characteristics of real world data revealed a number of challenges in the practical application of this model, relevant to the research community.