Law
Client Profiling for an Anti-Money Laundering System
Alexandre, Claudio, Balsa, João
Acts of prevention and fight against money laundering (ML) crimes are prioritized by almost every government in the world, at the same level of the most relevant global issues. Money laundering is a crime that typically consists in making a certain illegal financial gain into a legal gain. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC) the annual global estimate of laundered money is about 2% - 5% of the Gross World Product, or US$800 billion - US$2 trillion [1]. As if the financial volume were not enough, another reason for governments to focus on this crime is for the fact that it is clearly connected to other types of crimes such as illegal drug trade, fraud, corruption, kidnapping, terrorism, arms smuggling, among others. Most countries' financial authorities, usually Central Banks, are responsible for controlling and defining antimoney laundering (AML) regulations, demanding from financial institutions the implementation of procedures that apply the defined norms.
Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence
Russell, Stuart (University of California, Berkeley) | Dewey, Daniel (Oxford University) | Tegmark, Max (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to humanity, and it is therefore worthwhile to investigate how to maximize these benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. This article gives numerous examples (which should by no means be construed as an exhaustive list) of such worthwhile research aimed at ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial.
Human Memory Search as Initial-Visit Emitting Random Walk
Jun, Kwang-Sung, Zhu, Jerry, Rogers, Timothy T., Yang, Zhuoran, yuan, ming
Imagine a random walk that outputs a state only when visiting it for the first time. The observed output is therefore a repeat-censored version of the underlying walk, and consists of a permutation of the states or a prefix of it. We call this model initial-visit emitting random walk (INVITE). Prior work has shown that the random walks with such a repeat-censoring mechanism explain well human behavior in memory search tasks, which is of great interest in both the study of human cognition and various clinical applications. However, parameter estimation in INVITE is challenging, because naive likelihood computation by marginalizing over infinitely many hidden random walk trajectories is intractable. In this paper, we propose the first efficient maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for INVITE by decomposing the censored output into a series of absorbing random walks. We also prove theoretical properties of the MLE including identifiability and consistency. We show that INVITE outperforms several existing methods on real-world human response data from memory search tasks.
CrossCat: A Fully Bayesian Nonparametric Method for Analyzing Heterogeneous, High Dimensional Data
Mansinghka, Vikash, Shafto, Patrick, Jonas, Eric, Petschulat, Cap, Gasner, Max, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
There is a widespread need for statistical methods that can analyze high-dimensional datasets with- out imposing restrictive or opaque modeling assumptions. This paper describes a domain-general data analysis method called CrossCat. CrossCat infers multiple non-overlapping views of the data, each consisting of a subset of the variables, and uses a separate nonparametric mixture to model each view. CrossCat is based on approximately Bayesian inference in a hierarchical, nonparamet- ric model for data tables. This model consists of a Dirichlet process mixture over the columns of a data table in which each mixture component is itself an independent Dirichlet process mixture over the rows; the inner mixture components are simple parametric models whose form depends on the types of data in the table. CrossCat combines strengths of mixture modeling and Bayesian net- work structure learning. Like mixture modeling, CrossCat can model a broad class of distributions by positing latent variables, and produces representations that can be efficiently conditioned and sampled from for prediction. Like Bayesian networks, CrossCat represents the dependencies and independencies between variables, and thus remains accurate when there are multiple statistical signals. Inference is done via a scalable Gibbs sampling scheme; this paper shows that it works well in practice. This paper also includes empirical results on heterogeneous tabular data of up to 10 million cells, such as hospital cost and quality measures, voting records, unemployment rates, gene expression measurements, and images of handwritten digits. CrossCat infers structure that is consistent with accepted findings and common-sense knowledge in multiple domains and yields predictive accuracy competitive with generative, discriminative, and model-free alternatives.
Ethical Artificial Intelligence
This book-length article combines several peer reviewed papers and new material to analyze the issues of ethical artificial intelligence (AI). The behavior of future AI systems can be described by mathematical equations, which are adapted to analyze possible unintended AI behaviors and ways that AI designs can avoid them. This article makes the case for utility-maximizing agents and for avoiding infinite sets in agent definitions. It shows how to avoid agent self-delusion using model-based utility functions and how to avoid agents that corrupt their reward generators (sometimes called "perverse instantiation") using utility functions that evaluate outcomes at one point in time from the perspective of humans at a different point in time. It argues that agents can avoid unintended instrumental actions (sometimes called "basic AI drives" or "instrumental goals") by accurately learning human values. This article defines a self-modeling agent framework and shows how it can avoid problems of resource limits, being predicted by other agents, and inconsistency between the agent's utility function and its definition (one version of this problem is sometimes called "motivated value selection"). This article also discusses how future AI will differ from current AI, the politics of AI, and the ultimate use of AI to help understand the nature of the universe and our place in it.
Expressiveness of Two-Valued Semantics for Abstract Dialectical Frameworks
By expressiveness we mean the ability to encode a desired set of two-valued interpretations over a given propositional vocabulary A using only atoms from A. We also compare ADFs' expressiveness with that of (the two-valued semantics of) abstract argumentation frameworks, normal logic programs and propositional logic. While the computational complexity of the two-valued model existence problem for all these languages is (almost) the same, we show that the languages form a neat hierarchy with respect to their expressiveness. We then demonstrate that this hierarchy collapses once we allow to introduce a linear number of new vocabulary elements. We finally also analyse and compare the representational succinctness of ADFs (for two-valued model semantics), that is, their capability to represent two-valued interpretation sets in a space-efficient manner.
Cognitive Assistants for Document-Related Tasks in Law and Government
Branting, Luther Karl (The MITRE Corporation)
The legal relationship between government and citizens is mediated by documents. This paper identifies four classes of cognitive assistants that could improve the experience of citizens and government officials in using and understanding government documents: self-filling forms; error-detecting forms; proactive information search; and deductive document synthesis. Each of these classes of cognitive assistants has the potential to significantly improve access to justice and delivery of information, services, and other benefits to citizens by improving the ability of citizens to understand and correctly fill out forms and to comprehend informational documents.
Extracting Structured Information via Automatic + Human Computation
Pavlick, Ellie (University of Pennsylvania) | Callison-Burch, Chris (University of Pennsylvania)
We present a system for extracting structured information from unstructured text using a combination of information retrieval, natural language processing, machine learning, and crowdsourcing. We test our pipeline by building a structured database of gun violence incidents in the United States. The results of our pilot study demonstrate that the proposed methodology is a viable way of collecting large-scale, up-to-date data for public health, public policy, and social science research.
Application of Quantum Annealing to Training of Deep Neural Networks
Adachi, Steven H., Henderson, Maxwell P.
In Deep Learning, a well-known approach for training a Deep Neural Network starts by training a generative Deep Belief Network model, typically using Contrastive Divergence (CD), then fine-tuning the weights using backpropagation or other discriminative techniques. However, the generative training can be time-consuming due to the slow mixing of Gibbs sampling. We investigated an alternative approach that estimates model expectations of Restricted Boltzmann Machines using samples from a D-Wave quantum annealing machine. We tested this method on a coarse-grained version of the MNIST data set. In our tests we found that the quantum sampling-based training approach achieves comparable or better accuracy with significantly fewer iterations of generative training than conventional CD-based training. Further investigation is needed to determine whether similar improvements can be achieved for other data sets, and to what extent these improvements can be attributed to quantum effects.
Neural-based machine translation for medical text domain. Based on European Medicines Agency leaflet texts
Wołk, Krzysztof, Marasek, Krzysztof
The quality of machine translation is rapidly evolving. Today one can find several machine translation systems on the web that provide reasonable translations, although the systems are not perfect. In some specific domains, the quality may decrease. A recently proposed approach to this domain is neural machine translation. It aims at building a jointly-tuned single neural network that maximizes translation performance, a very different approach from traditional statistical machine translation. Recently proposed neural machine translation models often belong to the encoder-decoder family in which a source sentence is encoded into a fixed length vector that is, in turn, decoded to generate a translation. The present research examines the effects of different training methods on a Polish-English Machine Translation system used for medical data. The European Medicines Agency parallel text corpus was used as the basis for training of neural and statistical network-based translation systems. The main machine translation evaluation metrics have also been used in analysis of the systems. A comparison and implementation of a real-time medical translator is the main focus of our experiments.