Links between licit and illicit economies fuel conflict in countries mired in irregular warfare. We argue that in Afghanistan, cultivating poppy and trading drugs bring stability to farmers who face the unintended consequences of haphazard development efforts while lacking alternative livelihoods and security necessary to access markets. Drug trafficking funds the crime-insurgency nexus and government corruption, in turn foiling attempts to establish a unified governance body. We show how individual rationality, market forces, corruption and opium stocks accumulated at different stages in the supply chain counteract the effects of poppy eradication. To that end, we use initial results from a multiagent model of the Afghan drug industry. We define physical, administrative, social and infrastructural environments in the simulation, and outline objectives and inputs for decision making and the structure of actor interactions.

Using computational intelligence, our ultimate goal is to self-regulate systems composed of humans, machines and robots. Self-regulation is important for the control of mixed organizations and systems. An overview of self-regulation for organizations and systems, characterized by our solution of the tradeoffs between Fourier pairs of Gaussian distributions that affect decision-making differently, is provided. A mathematical outline of our solution and a sketch of future plans are provided.

Kernel Induced Random Survival Forests (KIRSF) is a statistical learning algorithm which aims to improve prediction accuracy for survival data. As in Random Survival Forests (RSF), Cumulative Hazard Function is predicted for each individual in the test set. Prediction error is estimated using Harrell's concordance index (C index) [Harrell et al. (1982)]. The C-index can be interpreted as a misclassification probability and does not depend on a single fixed time for evaluation. The C-index also specifically accounts for censoring. By utilizing kernel functions, KIRSF achieves better results than RSF in many situations. In this report, we show how to incorporate kernel functions into RSF. We test the performance of KIRSF and compare our method to RSF. We find that the KIRSF's performance is better than RSF in many occasions.

Autonomous planetary vehicles, also known as rovers, are small autonomous vehicles equipped with a variety of sensors used to perform exploration and experiments on a planet's surface. Rovers work in a partially unknown environment, with narrow energy/time/movement constraints and, typically, small computational resources that limit the complexity of on-line planning and scheduling, thus they represent a great challenge in the field of autonomous vehicles. Indeed, formal models for such vehicles usually involve hybrid systems with nonlinear dynamics, which are difficult to handle by most of the current planning algorithms and tools. Therefore, when offline planning of the vehicle activities is required, for example for rovers that operate without a continuous Earth supervision, such planning is often performed on simplified models that are not completely realistic. In this paper we show how the UPMurphi model checking based planning tool can be used to generate resource-optimal plans to control the engine of an autonomous planetary vehicle, working directly on its hybrid model and taking into account several safety constraints, thus achieving very accurate results.

Parimutuel wagering is a significant source of revenue for many state governments. MonitorPlus is a surveillance system for parimutuel operators and regulators. Using industry expertise and best practices, MonitorPlus examines each and every wager and account transaction for evidence of fraud, crime, and money laundering. Alerts are generated in real-time. In forensic discovery mode, MonitorPlus is designed to collaborate with skilled analysts to discover more complex suspicious wagering patterns. MonitorPlus utilizes machine learning, so its risk profiles are current: its knowledge base improves with time. Each alert is accompanied by an automatically generated, rule-based explanation. This is critically important if an event rises to the level where legal action is required. Our development and deployment strategy is based on a new paradigm of a secure surveillance utility, where real-time alerts and dataintensive forensics support multiple regulatory jurisdictions. We believe this surveillance paradigm can be applied to other application domains such as lotteries, casinos, online gaming, and financial services.

Paraphrasing methods recognize, generate, or extract phrases, sentences, or longer natural language expressions that convey almost the same information. Textual entailment methods, on the other hand, recognize, generate, or extract pairs of natural language expressions, such that a human who reads (and trusts) the first element of a pair would most likely infer that the other element is also true. Paraphrasing can be seen as bidirectional textual entailment and methods from the two areas are often similar. Both kinds of methods are useful, at least in principle, in a wide range of natural language processing applications, including question answering, summarization, text generation, and machine translation. We summarize key ideas from the two areas by considering in turn recognition, generation, and extraction methods, also pointing to prominent articles and resources.

Paraphrasing methods recognize, generate, or extract phrases, sentences, or longer natural language expressions that convey almost the same information. Textual entailment methods, on the other hand, recognize, generate, or extract pairs of natural language expressions, such that a human who reads (and trusts) the first element of a pair would most likely infer that the other element is also true. Paraphrasing can be seen as bidirectional textual entailment and methods from the two areas are often similar. Both kinds of methods are useful, at least in principle, in a wide range of natural language processing applications, including question answering, summarization, text generation, and machine translation. We summarize key ideas from the two areas by considering in turn recognition, generation, and extraction methods, also pointing to prominent articles and resources.

This paper discusses a research based on analyzing criminal sentences on criminal trials on organized crime activity in Sicily pronounced from 2000 through 2006. Large criminal sentences related dataset collection activity in Italy is severely constrained for various reasons such as difficulty of data collection at the courthouses, unavailability of data in digital format, and classification criteria used in the public archives. Thus, in general, judicial statistics suffer from lack of reliability and informativeness. The objective of this research is to analyze the text of criminal sentences in a revisable and verifiable way, so that information is extracted on the trial leading to the sentence, the socio-economic environment in which the relevant events occurred, and the differences between the various districts conducting the trials. The purpose is to elaborate a tool of automated analysis of the text of the sentences that is generalizable to other areas of jurisprudence, and, outside of jurisprudence, to other temporal and geographical contexts. The 726 criminal sentences that have been converted into text files have been pronounced at all judicial levels in the four Sicilian districts for mafia-related crimes. This research is relevant because, for the first time in Italy, we aim to empirically describe the juridical response to the phenomenon of organized crime, by using a large and extendable database of criminal sentences that can be analyzed with data mining techniques, rather than deriving general conclusions from a focused small set of sentences.

The applicability conditions of legal Norms regulating computer systems can be modelled in different rules very often refer to these institutional concepts, rather ways, see, for example, (Boella, van der Torre, and than to so called brute facts. To simplify the notation we refer Verhagen 2008). If norms are represented by hard constraints, to the former as constitutive rules, and the latter simply then computer systems are designed to avoid violations.

In this paper we introduce dialectical frameworks, a powerful generalization of Dung-style argumentation frameworks where each node comes with an associated acceptance condition. This allows us to model different types of dependencies, e.g. support and attack, as well as different types of nodes within a single framework. We show that Dung's standard semantics can be generalized to dialectical frameworks, in case of stable and preferred semantics to a slightly restricted class which we call bipolar frameworks. We show how acceptance conditions can be conveniently represented using weights respectively priorities on the links and demonstrate how some of the legal proof standards can be modeled based on this idea.