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Robust Synthetic Control

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a robust generalization of the synthetic control method for comparative case studies. Like the classical method, we present an algorithm to estimate the unobservable counterfactual of a treatment unit. A distinguishing feature of our algorithm is that of de-noising the data matrix via singular value thresholding, which renders our approach robust in multiple facets: it automatically identifies a good subset of donors, overcomes the challenges of missing data, and continues to work well in settings where covariate information may not be provided. To begin, we establish the condition under which the fundamental assumption in synthetic control-like approaches holds, i.e. when the linear relationship between the treatment unit and the donor pool prevails in both the pre- and post-intervention periods. We provide the first finite sample analysis for a broader class of models, the Latent Variable Model, in contrast to Factor Models previously considered in the literature. Further, we show that our de-noising procedure accurately imputes missing entries, producing a consistent estimator of the underlying signal matrix provided $p = \Omega( T^{-1 + \zeta})$ for some $\zeta > 0$; here, $p$ is the fraction of observed data and $T$ is the time interval of interest. Under the same setting, we prove that the mean-squared-error (MSE) in our prediction estimation scales as $O(\sigma^2/p + 1/\sqrt{T})$, where $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance. Using a data aggregation method, we show that the MSE can be made as small as $O(T^{-1/2+\gamma})$ for any $\gamma \in (0, 1/2)$, leading to a consistent estimator. We also introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify the model uncertainty through posterior probabilities. Our experiments, using both real-world and synthetic datasets, demonstrate that our robust generalization yields an improvement over the classical synthetic control method.


UN panel agrees to move ahead with debate on killer robots

Daily Mail - Science & tech

A U.N. panel agreed Friday to move ahead with talks to define and possibly set limits on weapons that can kill without human involvement, as human rights groups said governments are moving too slowly to keep up with advances in artificial intelligence that could put computers in control one day. Advocacy groups warned about the threats posed by such'killer robots' and aired a chilling video illustrating their possible uses on the sidelines of the first formal U.N. meeting of government experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems this week. More than 80 countries took part. The meeting falls under the U.N.'s Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons - also known as the Inhumane Weapons Convention - a 37-year old agreement that has set limits on the use of arms and explosives like mines, blinding laser weapons and booby traps over the years. The meeting falls under the U.N.'s Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons - also known as the Inhumane Weapons Convention - a 37-year old agreement that has set limits on the use of arms and explosives like mines, blinding laser weapons and booby traps over the years.


UN Panel Agrees to Move Ahead With Debate on 'Killer Robots'

U.S. News

A U.N. panel agreed Friday to move ahead with talks to define and possibly set limits on weapons that can kill without human involvement, as human rights groups said governments are moving too slowly to keep up with advances in artificial intelligence that could put computers in control one day.


Religion that worships artificial intelligence prepares for a world run by machines

#artificialintelligence

A newly established religion called Way of the Future will worship artificial intelligence, focusing on "the realization, acceptance, and worship of a Godhead based on Artificial Intelligence" that followers believe will eventually surpass human control over Earth. The first AI-based church was founded by Anthony Levandowski, the Silicon Valley multimillionaire who championed the robotics team for Uber's self-driving program and Waymo, the self-driving car company owned by Google. Way of the Future "is about creating a peaceful and respectful transition of who is in charge of the planet from people to people'machines,'" the religion's official website reads. "Given that technology will'relatively soon' be able to surpass human abilities, we want to help educate people about this exciting future and prepare a smooth transition." Levandowski filed documents to establish the religion back in May, making himself the "Dean" of the church and the CEO of a related nonprofit that would run it.


Does The Advance of AI Herald A 'Golden Age' for Legal Practice?

#artificialintelligence

A 2016 survey by Thomson Reuters, 'The Generational Shift In Legal Departments' highlights how unprepared the legal services industry is for the arrival, en masse, of this new generation in our workplaces. The report states that three quarters of the workforce will be made of millennials by the year 2025. It's important to bear in mind that they won't just make up 75% of the workforce but likely 75% of potential clients for legal service providers also. Criticisms of this new generation have included having a sense of entitlement, being quicker to move jobs rather than display loyalty and being much more sensitive to time and cost constraints than their preceding generation. I would argue that this new generation will drive even more change as clients or corporate colleagues than they will as lawyers.The practice of law runs on an archaic system which is characterised by time-consuming formalities, cautious advice and vast expense.


tomorrows-naked-lawyer

#artificialintelligence

ISBN: 978-1-78358-174-0 (Ark Group, 2014) Author Chrissie Lightfoot โ€“ named in the 2015 list of the'World's Top Female Futurists' & LinkedIn as the No.1 best-connected & most engaged woman in the legal industry, 4th in all sectors, 2015. "It's here at last! Four long years of waiting are over. Its innovative style, approach and language went where no-one else had quite been before." Wait'til you get a load of Tomorrow's Naked Lawyer! Tomorrow's Naked Lawyer takes off from where The Naked Lawyer left you.


Inside the First Church of Artificial Intelligence Backchannel

#artificialintelligence

Anthony Levandowski makes an unlikely prophet. Dressed Silicon Valley-casual in jeans and flanked by a PR rep rather than cloaked acolytes, the engineer known for self-driving cars--and triggering a notorious lawsuit--could be unveiling his latest startup instead of laying the foundations for a new religion. But he is doing just that. Artificial intelligence has already inspired billion-dollar companies, far-reaching research programs, and scenarios of both transcendence and doom. Now Levandowski is creating its first church.


Ex-Google engineer who founded AI church 'raising a god'

Daily Mail - Science & tech

An ex-Google engineer who has registered the first church of AI says he is'raising a god' that will that charge of humans. The robot god will head a religion called Way Of The Future (WOTF), which will eventually have a gospel called'The Manual', rituals and even a physical place of worship, Anthony Levandowski first filed papers with the Internal Revenue Service inMay, and named himself as'dean' of WOTF, giving him complete control until his death or resignation. Levandowski his robot god will take charge of its human subjects as we relinquish our power to a creation with far more intelligence than our own. Anthony Levandowski (right) who has registered the first church of AI says he is'raising a god' that will treat humans as esteemed elders. He is pictured with Uber founder and ex-CEO Travis Kalanick.


Artificial Intelligence May Reflect the Unfair World We Live in

#artificialintelligence

We've all heard Elon Musk speak with foreboding about the danger AI poses -- something he says may potentially bring forth a Third World War: This is of course the power of artificial intelligence (AI). But let's put aside for a moment Musk's claims about the threat of human extinction and look instead at the present-day risk AI poses. This risk, which may well be commonplace in the world of technology business, is bias within the learning process of artificial neural networks. This notion of bias may not be as alarming as that of "killer" artificial intelligence -- something Hollywood has conditioned us to fear. But, in fact, a plethora of evidence suggests that AI has developed a system biased against racial minorities and women. Consider the racial discrimination practiced against people of color who apply for loans.