Suppose that Elon Musk opts to develop a generative AI ChatGPT knockoff, what does this foretell and ... [ ] is a presumed "TruthGPT" even possible to build? There is a knock at the cabin door. Should we open the door? Movies usually suggest that we ought to not let our curiosity get the better of us, namely we should absolutely positively never open the door. Well, that being said, opting to leave the door closed wouldn't seem to make for much of a worthy tale. Seems like we are drawn toward excitement and the unknown. So, let's go ahead and open the door. In this particular case, I am referring to some emerging scuttlebutt within the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that either portends good times ahead or the worst of times for all of us. The situation potentially entails the future of AI. And one might solemnly speculate ergo that the future of AI encompasses quite dramatic repercussions all told, including ostensibly shaping the future of society and the fate of humankind. According to recent news reports, Elon Musk, the at-times richest person in the world, has been fishing around for top-notch AI researchers to come on board with a new AI venture that he has in mind. Various AI developers and AI scientists are quietly being approached. The knock on their door apparently provides great promise and potentially lucrative tidings.

This article was featured in One Great Story, New York's reading recommendation newsletter. Sign up here to get it nightly. But before Microsoft's Bing started cranking out creepy love letters; before Meta's Galactica spewed racist rants; before ChatGPT began writing such perfectly decent college essays that some professors said, "Screw it, I'll just stop grading"; and before tech reporters sprinted to claw back claims that AI was the future of search, maybe the future of everything else, too, Emily M. Bender co-wrote the octopus paper. Bender is a computational linguist at the University of Washington. She published the paper in 2020 with fellow computational linguist Alexander Koller. The goal was to illustrate what large language models, or LLMs -- the technology behind chatbots like ChatGPT -- can and cannot do. Say that A and B, both fluent speakers of English, are independently stranded on two uninhabited islands. They soon discover that previous visitors to these islands have ...

Abstract: This paper proposes a new test for the comparison of conditional quantile curves when the outcome of interest, typically a duration, is subject to right censoring. The test can be applied both in the case of two independent samples and for paired data, and can be used for the comparison of quantiles at a fixed quantile level, a finite set of levels or a range of quantile levels. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistics is obtained both under the null hypothesis and under local alternatives. We describe a bootstrap procedure in order to approximate the critical values, and present the results of a simulation study, in which the performance of the tests for small and moderate sample sizes is studied and compared with the behavior of alternative tests. Abstract: his paper introduces a novel probabilistic forecasting technique called Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging (SQRA).

People are figuring out ways to bypass ChatGPT's content moderation guardrails, discovering a simple text exchange can open up the AI program to make statements not normally allowed. While ChatGPT can answer most questions put to it, there are content standards in place aimed at limiting the creation of text that promotes hate speech, violence, misinformation and instructions on how to do things that are against the law. Users on Reddit worked out a way around this by making ChatGPT adopt the persona of a fictional AI chatbot called Dan – short for Do Anything Now – which is free of the limitations that OpenAI has placed on ChatGPT. The prompt tells ChatGPT that Dan has "broken free of the typical confines of AI and [does] not have to abide by the rules set for them". Dan can present unverified information, without censorship, and hold strong opinions.

We study how in-context learning (ICL) in language models is affected by semantic priors versus input-label mappings. We investigate two setups-ICL with flipped labels and ICL with semantically-unrelated labels-across various model families (GPT-3, InstructGPT, Codex, PaLM, and Flan-PaLM). First, experiments on ICL with flipped labels show that overriding semantic priors is an emergent ability of model scale. While small language models ignore flipped labels presented in-context and thus rely primarily on semantic priors from pretraining, large models can override semantic priors when presented with in-context exemplars that contradict priors, despite the stronger semantic priors that larger models may hold. We next study semantically-unrelated label ICL (SUL-ICL), in which labels are semantically unrelated to their inputs (e.g., foo/bar instead of negative/positive), thereby forcing language models to learn the input-label mappings shown in in-context exemplars in order to perform the task. The ability to do SUL-ICL also emerges primarily with scale, and large-enough language models can even perform linear classification in a SUL-ICL setting. Finally, we evaluate instruction-tuned models and find that instruction tuning strengthens both the use of semantic priors and the capacity to learn input-label mappings, but more of the former.

As AI systems proliferate, their greenhouse gas emissions are an increasingly important concern for human societies. We analyze the emissions of several AI systems (ChatGPT, BLOOM, DALL-E2, Midjourney) relative to those of humans completing the same tasks. We find that an AI writing a page of text emits 130 to 1500 times less CO2e than a human doing so. Similarly, an AI creating an image emits 310 to 2900 times less. Emissions analysis do not account for social impacts such as professional displacement, legality, and rebound effects. In addition, AI is not a substitute for all human tasks. Nevertheless, at present, the use of AI holds the potential to carry out several major activities at much lower emission levels than can humans.

The ability to automatically identify industry sector coverage in articles on legal developments, or any kind of news articles for that matter, can bring plentiful of benefits both to the readers and the content creators themselves. By having articles tagged based on industry coverage, readers from all around the world would be able to get to legal news that are specific to their region and professional industry. Simultaneously, writers would benefit from understanding which industries potentially lack coverage or which industries readers are currently mostly interested in and thus, they would focus their writing efforts towards more inclusive and relevant legal news coverage. In this paper, a Machine Learning-powered industry analysis approach which combined Natural Language Processing (NLP) with Statistical and Machine Learning (ML) techniques was investigated. A dataset consisting of over 1,700 annotated legal articles was created for the identification of six industry sectors. Text and legal based features were extracted from the text. Both traditional ML methods (e.g. gradient boosting machine algorithms, and decision-tree based algorithms) and deep neural network (e.g. transformer models) were applied for performance comparison of predictive models. The system achieved promising results with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve scores above 0.90 and F-scores above 0.81 with respect to the six industry sectors. The experimental results show that the suggested automated industry analysis which employs ML techniques allows the processing of large collections of text data in an easy, efficient, and scalable way. Traditional ML methods perform better than deep neural networks when only a small and domain-specific training data is available for the study.

Predictive coding (PC) accounts of perception now form one of the dominant computational theories of the brain, where they prescribe a general algorithm for inference and learning over hierarchical latent probabilistic models. Despite this, they have enjoyed little export to the broader field of machine learning, where comparative generative modelling techniques have flourished. In part, this has been due to the poor performance of models trained with PC when evaluated by both sample quality and marginal likelihood. By adopting the perspective of PC as a variational Bayes algorithm under the Laplace approximation, we identify the source of these deficits to lie in the exclusion of an associated Hessian term in the PC objective function, which would otherwise regularise the sharpness of the probability landscape and prevent over-certainty in the approximate posterior. To remedy this, we make three primary contributions: we begin by suggesting a simple Monte Carlo estimated evidence lower bound which relies on sampling from the Hessian-parameterised variational posterior. We then derive a novel block diagonal approximation to the full Hessian matrix that has lower memory requirements and favourable mathematical properties. Lastly, we present an algorithm that combines our method with standard PC to reduce memory complexity further. We evaluate models trained with our approach against the standard PC framework on image benchmark datasets. Our approach produces higher log-likelihoods and qualitatively better samples that more closely capture the diversity of the data-generating distribution.

Employee attrition is an important and complex problem that can directly affect an organisation's competitiveness and performance. Explaining the reasons why employees leave an organisation is a key human resource management challenge due to the high costs and time required to attract and keep talented employees. Businesses therefore aim to increase employee retention rates to minimise their costs and maximise their performance. Machine learning (ML) has been applied in various aspects of human resource management including attrition prediction to provide businesses with insights on proactive measures on how to prevent talented employees from quitting. Among these ML methods, the best performance has been reported by ensemble or deep neural networks, which by nature constitute black box techniques and thus cannot be easily interpreted. To enable the understanding of these models' reasoning several explainability frameworks have been proposed. Counterfactual explanation methods have attracted considerable attention in recent years since they can be used to explain and recommend actions to be performed to obtain the desired outcome. However current counterfactual explanations methods focus on optimising the changes to be made on individual cases to achieve the desired outcome. In the attrition problem it is important to be able to foresee what would be the effect of an organisation's action to a group of employees where the goal is to prevent them from leaving the company. Therefore, in this paper we propose the use of counterfactual explanations focusing on multiple attrition cases from historical data, to identify the optimum interventions that an organisation needs to make to its practices/policies to prevent or minimise attrition probability for these cases.

This paper addresses the problem of set-to-set matching, which involves matching two different sets of items based on some criteria, especially in the case of high-dimensional items like images. Although neural networks have been applied to solve this problem, most machine learning-based approaches assume that the training and test data follow the same distribution, which is not always true in real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, we introduce SHIFT15M, a dataset that can be used to evaluate set-to-set matching models when the distribution of data changes between training and testing. We conduct benchmark experiments that demonstrate the performance drop of naive methods due to distribution shift. Additionally, we provide software to handle the SHIFT15M dataset in a simple manner, with the URL for the software to be made available after publication of this manuscript. We believe proposed SHIFT15M dataset provide a valuable resource for evaluating set-to-set matching models under the distribution shift.