Vaccines
Personalized Decision Modeling: Utility Optimization or Textualized-Symbolic Reasoning
Decision-making models for individuals, particularly in high-stakes scenarios like vaccine uptake, often diverge from population optimal predictions. This gap arises from the uniqueness of the individual decision-making process, shaped by numerical attributes (e.g., cost, time) and linguistic influences (e.g., personal preferences and constraints). Developing upon Utility Theory and leveraging the textualreasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), this paper proposes an Adaptive Textual-symbolic Human-centric Reasoning framework (ATHENA) to address the optimal information integration. ATHENA uniquely integrates two stages: First, it discovers robust, group-level symbolic utility functions via LLMaugmented symbolic discovery; Second, it implements individual-level semantic adaptation, creating personalized semantic templates guided by the optimal utility to model personalized choices. Validated on real-world travel mode and vaccine choice tasks, ATHENA consistently outperforms utility-based, machine learning, and other LLM-based models, lifting F1 score by at least 6.5% over the strongest cutting-edge models. Further, ablation studies confirm that both stages of ATHENA are critical and complementary, as removing either clearly degrades overall predictive performance. By organically integrating symbolic utility modeling and semantic adaptation, ATHENA provides a new scheme for modeling human-centric decisions. The project page can be found at https://yibozh.github.io/Athena.
Appendix
The DeceptionBench is designed as a research benchmark to systematically study deception behaviors in LLMs, fostering a deeper understanding of their decision-making processes in real-world scenarios. Our primary intent is to provide a standardized, transparent tool for the research community to evaluate and improve LLMs' ethical alignment, not to enable or encourage deceptive practices. To prevent potential misuse by malicious actors, we commit to publicly releasing all evaluation data under an open license. This transparency ensures that DeceptionBench's methodology and outcomes are subject to scrutiny, replication, and improvement by the research community, reducing the risk of hidden exploitation. By prioritizing openness, we aim to advance responsible AI development while safeguarding against misuse in harmful contexts. The field of Large Language Models (LLMs) has undergone remarkable evolution in recent years, reshaping the landscape of natural language processing.
How to Auto optimize Prompts for Domain Tasks Adaptive Prompting and Reasoning through Evolutionary Domain Knowledge Adaptation
Designing optimal prompts and reasoning processes for large language models (LLMs) on domain-specific tasks is both necessary and challenging in real-world applications. Determining how to integrate domain knowledge, enhance reasoning efficiency, and even provide domain experts with refined knowledge integration hints are particularly crucial yet unresolved tasks. In this research, we propose Evolutionary Graph Optimization for Prompting (EGO-Prompt), an automated framework to designing better prompts, efficient reasoning processes and providing enhanced causal-informed process. EGO-Prompt begins with a general prompt and fault-tolerant initial Semantic Causal Graph (SCG) descriptions, constructed by human experts, which is then automatically refined and optimized to guide LLM reasoning. Recognizing that expert-defined SCGs may be partial or imperfect and that their optimal integration varies across LLMs, EGO-Prompt integrates a novel causal-guided textual gradient process in two steps: first, generating nearly deterministic reasoning guidance from the SCG for each instance, and second, adapting the LLM to effectively utilize the guidance alongside the original input.
Personalized Decision Modeling: Utility Optimization or Textualized-Symbolic Reasoning
Decision-making models for individuals, particularly in high-stakes scenarios like vaccine uptake, often diverge from population optimal predictions. This gap arises from the uniqueness of the individual decision-making process, shaped by numerical attributes (e.g., cost, time) and linguistic influences (e.g., personal preferences and constraints). Developing upon Utility Theory and leveraging the textual-reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), this paper proposes an Adaptive Textual-symbolic Human-centric Reasoning framework (ATHENA) to address the optimal information integration. ATHENA uniquely integrates two stages: First, it discovers robust, group-level symbolic utility functions via LLM-augmented symbolic discovery; Second, it implements individual-level semantic adaptation, creating personalized semantic templates guided by the optimal utility to model personalized choices. Validated on real-world travel mode and vaccine choice tasks, ATHENA consistently outperforms utility-based, machine learning, and other LLM-based models, lifting F1 score by at least 6.5\% over the strongest cutting-edge models. Further, ablation studies confirm that both stages of ATHENA are critical and complementary, as removing either clearly degrades overall predictive performance. By organically integrating symbolic utility modeling and semantic adaptation, ATHENA provides a new scheme for modeling human-centric decisions. The project page can be found at https://yibozh.github.io/Athena.
A Danish Couple's Maverick African Research Finds Its Moment in RFK Jr.'s Vaccine Policy
The work of Peter Aaby and Christine Stabell Benn has long been controversial. Until Robert F. Kennedy Jr. became US health policy chief, most vaccine scientists tended to ignore it. In 1996, Guinea-Bissau seemed like an ideal research post for budding pediatrician Lone Graff Stensballe. Her supervisor, a fellow Dane named Peter Aaby, had spent nearly two decades collecting data on 100,000 people living in the mud brick homes of the West African country's capital. Aaby and his partner, Christine Stabell Benn, believed that the years of research in the impoverished country had yielded a major discovery about vaccines--and what they described as "non-specific effects": The measles and tuberculosis vaccines, which were derived from live, weakened viruses and bacteria, they said, boosted child survival beyond protecting against those particular pathogens. But, the scientists said, shots made from deactivated whole germs, or pieces of them, such as the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) shot, caused more deaths--especially in little girls--than getting no vaccine at all.
Identifying and Estimating Causal Direct Effects Under Unmeasured Confounding
Boileau, Philippe, Hejazi, Nima S., Malenica, Ivana, Gilbert, Peter B., Dudoit, Sandrine, van der Laan, Mark J.
Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect effects have garnered much attention. The natural direct and indirect effects, the most widely used among such causal mediation estimands, are limited in their practical utility due to stringent identification requirements. Accordingly, considerable effort has been invested in developing alternative direct and indirect effect decompositions with relaxed identification requirements. Such efforts often yield effect definitions with nuanced and challenging interpretations. By contrast, relatively limited attention has been paid to relaxing the identification assumptions of the natural direct and indirect effects. Motivated by a secondary aim of a recent non-randomized vaccine prospective cohort study (NCT05168813), we present a set of relaxed conditions under which the natural direct effect is identifiable in spite of unobserved baseline confounding of the exposure-mediator pathway; we use this result to investigate the effect mediated by putative immune correlates of protection. Relaxing the commonly used but restrictive cross-world counterfactual independence assumption, we discuss strategies for evaluating the natural direct effect in non-randomized settings that arise in the analysis of vaccine studies. We revisit prior studies of semi-parametric efficiency theory to demonstrate the construction of flexible, multiply robust estimators of the natural direct effect and discuss efficient estimation strategies that do not place restrictive modeling assumptions on nuisance functions.
Vaccine: Perturbation-aware Alignment for Large Language Models against Harmful Fine-tuning Attack
The new paradigm of fine-tuning-as-a-service introduces a new attack surface for Large Language Models (LLMs): a few harmful data uploaded by users can easily trick the fine-tuning to produce an alignment-broken model. We conduct an empirical analysis and uncovera \textit{harmful embedding drift} phenomenon, showing a probable cause of the alignment-broken effect. Inspired by our findings, we propose Vaccine, a perturbation-aware alignment technique to mitigate the security risk of users fine-tuning. The core idea of Vaccine is to produce invariant hidden embeddings by progressively adding crafted perturbation to them in the alignment phase. This enables the embeddings to withstand harmful perturbation from un-sanitized user data in the fine-tuning phase. Our results on open source mainstream LLMs (e.g., Llama2, Opt, Vicuna) demonstrate that Vaccine can boost the robustness of alignment against harmful prompts induced embedding drift while reserving reasoning ability towards benign prompts.
The Download: an exclusive chat with Jim O'Neill, and the surprising truth about heists
The Download: an exclusive chat with Jim O'Neill, and the surprising truth about heists Over the past year, Jim O'Neill has become one of the most powerful people in public health. As the US deputy health secretary, he holds two roles at the top of the country's federal health and science agencies. He oversees a department with a budget of over a trillion dollars. And he signed the decision memorandum on the US's deeply controversial new vaccine schedule. In an exclusive interview with earlier this month, O'Neill described his plans to increase human healthspan through longevity-focused research supported by ARPA-H, a federal agency dedicated to biomedical breakthroughs. Fellow longevity enthusiasts said they hope he will bring attention and funding to their cause.