Many networks are complex dynamical systems, where both attributes of nodes and topology of the network (link structure) can change with time. We propose a model of co-evolving networks where both node attributes and network structure evolve under mutual influence. Specifically, we consider a mixed membership stochastic blockmodel, where the probability of observing a link between two nodes depends on their current membership vectors, while those membership vectors themselves evolve in the presence of a link between the nodes. Thus, the network is shaped by the interaction of stochastic processes describing the nodes, while the processes themselves are influenced by the changing network structure. We derive an efficient variational inference procedure for our model, and validate the model on both synthetic and real-world data.

The Stock Sonar (TSS) is a stock sentiment analysis application based on a novel hybrid approach. While previous work focused on document level sentiment classification, or extracted only generic sentiment at the phrase level, TSS integrates sentiment dictionaries, phrase-level compositional patterns, and predicate-level semantic events. TSS generates precise in text sentiment tagging as well as sentiment-oriented event summaries for a given stock, which are also aggregated into sentiment scores. Hence, TSS allows investors to get the essence of thousands of articles every day and may help them to make timely, informed trading decisions. The extracted sentiment is also shown to improve the accuracy of an existing document-level sentiment classifier.

Recently, geospatial abduction was introduced by the authors in [Shakarian et. al. 2010] as a way to infer unobserved geographic phenomena from a set of known observations and constraints between the two. In this paper, we introduce the SCARE-S2 software tool which applies geospatial abduction to the environment of Afghanistan. Unlike previous work, where we looked for small weapon caches supporting local attacks, here we look for insurgent high-value targets (HVT's), supporting insurgent operations in two provinces. These HVT's include the locations of insurgent leaders and major supply depots. Applying this method of inference to Afghanistan introduces several practical issues not addressed in previous work. Namely, we are conducting inference in a much larger area (24,940 sq km as compared to 675 sq km in previous work), on more varied terrain, and must consider the influence of many local tribes. We address all of these problems and evaluate our software on 6 months of real-world counter-insurgency data. We show that we are able to abduce regions of a relatively small area (on average, under 100 sq km and each containing, on average, 4.8 villages) that are more dense with HVT's (35 X more than the overall area considered).

Redacting text documents has traditionally been a mostly manual activity, making it expensive and prone to disclosure risks. This paper describes a semi-automated system to ensure a specified level of privacy in text data sets. Recent work has attempted to quantify the likelihood of privacy breaches for text data. We build on these notions to provide a means of obstructing such breaches by framing it as a multi-class classification problem. Our system gives users fine-grained control over the level of privacy needed to obstruct sensitive concepts present in that data. Additionally, our system is designed to respect a user-defined utility metric on the data (such as disclosure of a particular concept), which our methods try to maximize while anonymizing. We describe our redaction framework, algorithms, as well as a prototype tool built in to Microsoft Word that allows enterprise users to redact documents before sharing them internally and obscure client specific information. In addition we show experimental evaluation using publicly available data sets that show the effectiveness of our approach against both automated attackers and human subjects.The results show that we are able to preserve the utility of a text corpus while reducing disclosure risk of the sensitive concept.

This paper describes a system to help intelligence analysts track and analyze information being published in multiple sources, particularly open sources on the Web. The system integrates technology for Web harvesting, natural language extraction, and network analytics, and allows analysts to view and explore the results via a Web application. One of the difficult problems we address is the entity resolution problem, which occurs when there are multiple, differing ways to refer to the same entity. The problem is particularly complex when noisy data is being aggregated over time, there is no clean master list of entities, and the entities under investigation are intentionally being deceptive. Our system must not only perform entity resolution with noisy data, but must also gracefully recover when entity resolution mistakes are subsequently corrected. We present a case study in arms trafficking that illustrates the issues, and describe how they are addressed.

Poor quality data is a growing and costly problem that affects many enterprises across all aspects of their business ranging from operational efficiency to revenue protection. In this paper, we present an application -- Data Quality Rules Accelerator (DQRA) -- that accelerates Data Quality (DQ) efforts (e.g. data profiling and cleansing) by automatically discovering DQ rules for detecting inconsistencies in data. We then present two evaluations. The first evaluation compares DQRA to existing solutions; and shows that DQRA either outperformed or achieved performance comparable with these solutions on metrics such as precision, recall, and runtime. The second evaluation is a case study where DQRA was piloted at a large utilities company to improve data quality as part of a legacy migration effort. DQRA was able to discover rules that detected data inconsistencies directly impacting revenue and operational efficiency. Moreover, DQRA was able to significantly reduce the amount of effort required to develop these rules compared to the state of the practice. Finally, we describe ongoing efforts to deploy DQRA.

Learning by demonstration technology has long held the promise to empower non-programmers to customize and extend software. We describe the deployment of a learning by demonstration capability to support user creation of automated procedures in a collaborative planning environment that is used widely by the U.S. Army. This technology, which has been in operational use since the summer of 2010, has helped to reduce user workloads by automating repetitive and time-consuming tasks. The technology has also provided the unexpected benefit of enabling standardization of products and processes. 

Our goal is to enable military planners to rapidly critique alternative battle plans by simulating multiple outcomes of adversarial plans. We describe a novel simulator, SimPath, that combines qualitative reasoning, a geographic information system (GIS), and targeted probabilistic calculations to envision how adversarial battle plans can play out. We outline the problem and describe the overall operation of the simulator. We then explain how qualitative process theory is extended with actions to model military tasks, how envisioning is factored to reduce combinatorial explosion, and how probabilities are computed for transitions and used to filter possibilities. Empirical results, including an experiment conducted by an independent evaluator, are summarized. The results show that it is possible to identify dozens of possible outcomes on each of 9 combinations of adversarial plans (COAs) in under two minutes. We close with a discussion of future work.

The automated processing of multiple seismic signals to detect and localize seismic events is a central tool in both geophysics and nuclear treaty verification. This paper reports on a project, begun in 2009, to reformulate this problem in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian seismic monitoring system, NET-VISA, has been built comprising a spatial event prior and generative models of event transmission and detection, as well as an inference algorithm. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 50% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

We prove that it is NP-hard for a coalition of two manipulators to compute how to manipulate the Borda voting rule. This resolves one of the last open problems in the computational complexity of manipulating common voting rules. Because of this NP-hardness, we treat computing a manipulation as an approximation problem where we try to minimize the number of manipulators. Based on ideas from bin packing and multiprocessor scheduling, we propose two new approximation methods to compute manipulations of the Borda rule. Experiments show that these methods significantly outperform the previous best known approximation method. We are able to find optimal manipulations in almost all the randomly generated elections tested. Our results suggest that, whilst computing a manipulation of the Borda rule by a coalition is NP-hard, computational complexity may provide only a weak barrier against manipulation in practice.