Software agents can be used to automate many of the tedious, time-consuming information processing tasks that humans currently have to complete manually. However, to do so, agent plans must be capable of representing the myriad of actions and control flows required to perform those tasks. In addition, since these tasks can require integrating multiple sources of remote information ? typically, a slow, I/O-bound process ? it is desirable to make execution as efficient as possible. To address both of these needs, we present a flexible software agent plan language and a highly parallel execution system that enable the efficient execution of expressive agent plans. The plan language allows complex tasks to be more easily expressed by providing a variety of operators for flexibly processing the data as well as supporting subplans (for modularity) and recursion (for indeterminate looping). The executor is based on a streaming dataflow model of execution to maximize the amount of operator and data parallelism possible at runtime. We have implemented both the language and executor in a system called THESEUS. Our results from testing THESEUS show that streaming dataflow execution can yield significant speedups over both traditional serial (von Neumann) as well as non-streaming dataflow-style execution that existing software and robot agent execution systems currently support. In addition, we show how plans written in the language we present can represent certain types of subtasks that cannot be accomplished using the languages supported by network query engines. Finally, we demonstrate that the increased expressivity of our plan language does not hamper performance; specifically, we show how data can be integrated from multiple remote sources just as efficiently using our architecture as is possible with a state-of-the-art streaming-dataflow network query engine.

Concept Analysis provides a principled approach to effective management of wide area information systems, such as the Nebula File System and Interface. This not only offers evidence to support the assertion that a digital library is a bounded collection of incommensurate information sources in a logical space, but also sheds light on techniques for collaboration through coordinated access to the shared organization of knowledge.

Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for multi-step ahead forecasting and comparing them in theoretical and practical terms. To attain such an objective, we performed a large scale comparison of these different strategies using a large experimental benchmark (namely the 111 series from the NN5 forecasting competition). In addition, we considered the effects of deseasonalization, input variable selection, and forecast combination on these strategies and on multi-step ahead forecasting at large. The following three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results: Multiple-Output strategies are the best performing approaches, deseasonalization leads to uniformly improved forecast accuracy, and input selection is more effective when performed in conjunction with deseasonalization.

In this paper we bring to bear some new tools from statistical learning on the analysis of roll call data. We present a new data-driven model for roll call voting that is geometric in nature. We construct the model by adapting the "Partition Decoupling Method," an unsupervised learning technique originally developed for the analysis of families of time series, to produce a multiscale geometric description of a weighted network associated to a set of roll call votes. Central to this approach is the quantitative notion of a "motivation," a cluster-based and learned basis element that serves as a building block in the representation of roll call data. Motivations enable the formulation of a quantitative description of ideology and their data-dependent nature makes possible a quantitative analysis of the evolution of ideological factors. This approach is generally applicable to roll call data and we apply it in particular to the historical roll call voting of the U.S. House and Senate. This methodology provides a mechanism for estimating the dimension of the underlying action space. We determine that the dominant factors form a low- (one- or two-) dimensional representation with secondary factors adding higher-dimensional features. In this way our work supports and extends the findings of both Poole-Rosenthal and Heckman-Snyder concerning the dimensionality of the action space. We give a detailed analysis of several individual Senates and use the AdaBoost technique from statistical learning to determine those votes with the most powerful discriminatory value. When used as a predictive model, this geometric view significantly outperforms spatial models such as the Poole-Rosenthal DW-NOMINATE model and the Heckman-Snyder 6-factor model, both in raw accuracy as well as Aggregate Proportional Reduced Error (APRE).

Automatic detection of persuasion is essential for machine interaction on the social web. To facilitate automated persuasion detection, we present a novel microtext corpus derived from hostage negotiation transcripts as well as a detailed manual (codebook) for persuasion annotation. Our corpus, called the NPS Persuasion Corpus, consists of 37 transcripts from four sets of hostage negotiation transcriptions. Each utterance in the corpus is hand annotated for one of nine categories of persuasion based on Cialdini’s model: reciprocity, commitment, consistency, liking, authority, social proof, scarcity, other, and not persuasive. Initial results using three supervised learning algorithms (Na ̈ve Bayes, Maximum Entropy, and Support Vector Machines) combined with gappy and orthogonal sparse bigram feature expansion techniques show that the annotation process did capture machine learnable features of persuasion with F-scores better than baseline.

Humans are confronted with an increasingly complex array of ingestion substances and dietary choices that influence health and well being. However, even with strong medical evidence that clearly links ingestion strategies and heath consequences, the general public struggles to make health-optimizing ingestion decisions. Based on our literature review, we delineate a typology of barriers to formulating health-optimizing ingestion strategies. We propose that the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) as “decision management” (AI-DM) technology into the ingestion decision-making network would increase the likelihood of more predictable and optimized health outcomes. Also, we delineate the key informational constituencies needed to enable a comprehensive and effective AI-DM system. While no author has yet proposed AI in the particular context discussed in this paper, the theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this might be possible. We conclude by discussing areas for additional research.

Current methods for multi-AUV cooperation suffer in low communication environments. State of the art methods employ auctioneering or planning to determine a single AUV'task. These systems require communication to update models of teammates and tasks for efficient task selection. Most strategies assume a teammate is inoperable if a communication timeout is reached which reduces overall team efficiency. Including teammate prediction has been shown to mitigate efficiency degeneration due to low communication. However, there is no verification of a predicted teammate's task other than through eventual communication. A possible verification tool is behavior recognition. Current behavior recognition utilizes either overhead sensors or post mission analysis to track robot trajectories in order to infer their internal state. A system in which an AUV is capable of sensing a teammate, for example through a forward-looking sonar, and deducing it's behavior along with contextual information, such as location, will enable an AUV to determine that teammate's current task in the overall mission. This will allow for an accurate update of that teammate's model allowing the AUV to more efficiently determine its own next task rather than relying only on communication. This position paper posits that multi-AUV cooperation efficiency will improve in low communication environments with the combination of robust teammate prediction along with verification using behavior recognition.

We present a model of interactive activity recognition and prompting for use in an assistive system for persons with cognitive disabilities. The system can determine the user’s state by interpreting sensor data and/or by explicitly querying the user, and can prompt the user to begin or end tasks. The objective of the system is to help the user maintain a daily schedule of activities while minimizing interruptions from questions or prompts. The model is built upon an option-based hierarchical POMDP. Options can be programmed and customized to specify complex routines for prompting or questioning. Novel aspects of the model include (1) the introduction of adaptive options, which employ a lightweight user model and are able to provide near-optimal performance with little exploration; (2) a restricted-inquiry dual-control algorithm that can appeal for help from the user when sensor data is ambiguous; and (3) a combined filtering / most likely-sequence algorithm for activities determining the beginning and ending time points of the user’s activities. Experiments show that each of these features contributes to the robustness of the model.

The goal for attackers is to move from one side of the graph to the Border security is a key element of national security policy other (represented by sets of source and target nodes); this for any sovereign nation. In the United States, the Border represents a typical scenario of crossing an open region from Patrol deploys thousands of agents integrated with technology one side of the border to destination points in the interior of (e.g., vehicles, cameras, sensors) and infrastructure the county. The paths between the source and target nodes (e.g., fences, checkpoints) to prevent illegal entry of people may represent major or minor roads, or paths suitable for and goods into the country along vast land borders with travel on foot. We use weights on the edges to represent Canada and Mexico. The problem of border security is incredibly the relative speed/cost of transit on the different paths (for complex, due to the diversity and volume of illegal example, it may be must slower and more difficult to use activity that must be controlled, the variety of resources that a foot path than a major highway). Nodes may represent can be deployed to secure the border, and the differences in intersections, checkpoints, or other important waypoints.

Discovering latent connections between seemingly unconnected documents and constructing "stories" from scattered pieces of evidence are staple tasks in intelligence analysis. We have worked with government intelligence analysts to understand the strategies they use to make connections. Beyond techniques like clustering that aim to provide an initial broad summary of large document collections, an important goal of analysts in this domain is to assimilate and synthesize fine grained information from a smaller set of foraged documents. Further, analysts' domain expertise is crucial because it provides rich contextual background for making connections and thus the goal of KDD is to augment human discovery capabilities, not supplant it. We describe a visual analytics system we have built - Analyst's Workspace (AW) - that integrates browsing tools with a storytelling algorithm in a large screen display environment. AW helps analysts systematically construct stories of desired fidelity from document collections and helps marshall evidence as longer stories are constructed.