The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative based on the new law of total odds. We quantify the bias of the total probability estimator of the unconditional class probabilities and show that the total odds estimator is unbiased. The sample version of the total odds estimator is shown to coincide with a maximum-likelihood estimator known from the literature. The law of total odds can also be used for transforming the conditional class probabilities if independent estimates of the unconditional class probabilities of the population are available. Keywords: Total probability, likelihood ratio, Bayes' formula, binary classification, relative odds, unbiased estimator, supervised learning, dataset shift.

Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include economic interactions linking financial instruments and patterns of reciprocity in gang violence. In these cases, we are limited to noisy observations of events associated with each node. To enable analysis of these implicit networks, we develop a probabilistic model that combines mutually-exciting point processes with random graph models. We show how the Poisson superposition principle enables an elegant auxiliary variable formulation and a fully-Bayesian, parallel inference algorithm. We evaluate this new model empirically on several datasets.

An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully acknowledged through the posterior predictive distribution. Several such rules have been recently considered and their asymptotic behavior has been characterized under the assumption that the observed features or variables used for building a classifier are conditionally independent given a simultaneous labeling of both the training samples and those from an unknown origin. Here we extend the theoretical results to predictive classifiers acknowledging feature dependencies either through graphical models or sparser alternatives defined as stratified graphical models. We also show through experimentation with both synthetic and real data that the predictive classifiers based on stratified graphical models have consistently best accuracy compared with the predictive classifiers based on either conditionally independent features or on ordinary graphical models.

The study of networks has received increased attention recently not only from the social sciences and statistics but also from physicists, computer scientists and mathematicians. One of the principal problem in networks is community detection. Many algorithms have been proposed for community finding but most of them do not have have theoretical guarantee for sparse networks and networks close to the phase transition boundary proposed by physicists. There are some exceptions but all have some incomplete theoretical basis. Here we propose an algorithm based on the graph distance of vertices in the network. We give theoretical guarantees that our method works in identifying communities for block models and can be extended for degree-corrected block models and block models with the number of communities growing with number of vertices. Despite favorable simulation results, we are not yet able to conclude that our method is satisfactory for worst possible case. We illustrate on a network of political blogs, Facebook networks and some other networks.

We present a novel approximate graph matching algorithm that incorporates seeded data into the graph matching paradigm. Our Joint Optimization of Fidelity and Commensurability (JOFC) algorithm embeds two graphs into a common Euclidean space where the matching inference task can be performed. Through real and simulated data examples, we demonstrate the versatility of our algorithm in matching graphs with various characteristics--weightedness, directedness, loopiness, many-to-one and many-to-many matchings, and soft seedings.

Distributed constraint optimization (DCOP) problems are a popular way of formulating and solving agent-coordination problems. A DCOP problem is a problem where several agents coordinate their values such that the sum of the resulting constraint costs is minimal. It is often desirable to solve DCOP problems with memory-bounded and asynchronous algorithms. We introduce Branch-and-Bound ADOPT (BnB-ADOPT), a memory-bounded asynchronous DCOP search algorithm that uses the message-passing and communication framework of ADOPT (Modi, Shen, Tambe, and Yokoo, 2005), a well known memory-bounded asynchronous DCOP search algorithm, but changes the search strategy of ADOPT from best-first search to depth-first branch-and-bound search. Our experimental results show that BnB-ADOPT finds cost-minimal solutions up to one order of magnitude faster than ADOPT for a variety of large DCOP problems and is as fast as NCBB, a memory-bounded synchronous DCOP search algorithm, for most of these DCOP problems. Additionally, it is often desirable to find bounded-error solutions for DCOP problems within a reasonable amount of time since finding cost-minimal solutions is NP-hard. The existing bounded-error approximation mechanism allows users only to specify an absolute error bound on the solution cost but a relative error bound is often more intuitive. Thus, we present two new bounded-error approximation mechanisms that allow for relative error bounds and implement them on top of BnB-ADOPT.

Coordination of distributed agents is required for problems arising in many areas, including multi-robot systems, networking and e-commerce. As a formal framework for such problems, we use the decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP). Though much work has been done on optimal dynamic programming algorithms for the single-agent version of the problem, optimal algorithms for the multiagent case have been elusive. The main contribution of this paper is an optimal policy iteration algorithm for solving DEC-POMDPs. The algorithm uses stochastic finite-state controllers to represent policies. The solution can include a correlation device, which allows agents to correlate their actions without communicating. This approach alternates between expanding the controller and performing value-preserving transformations, which modify the controller without sacrificing value. We present two efficient value-preserving transformations: one can reduce the size of the controller and the other can improve its value while keeping the size fixed. Empirical results demonstrate the usefulness of value-preserving transformations in increasing value while keeping controller size to a minimum. To broaden the applicability of the approach, we also present a heuristic version of the policy iteration algorithm, which sacrifices convergence to optimality. This algorithm further reduces the size of the controllers at each step by assuming that probability distributions over the other agents actions are known. While this assumption may not hold in general, it helps produce higher quality solutions in our test problems.

This paper presents a multilayered architecture that enhances the capabilities of current QA systems and allows different types of complex questions or queries to be processed. The answers to these questions need to be gathered from factual information scattered throughout different documents. Specifically, we designed a specialized layer to process the different types of temporal questions. Complex temporal questions are first decomposed into simple questions, according to the temporal relations expressed in the original question. In the same way, the answers to the resulting simple questions are recomposed, fulfilling the temporal restrictions of the original complex question. A novel aspect of this approach resides in the decomposition which uses a minimal quantity of resources, with the final aim of obtaining a portable platform that is easily extensible to other languages. In this paper we also present a methodology for evaluation of the decomposition of the questions as well as the ability of the implemented temporal layer to perform at a multilingual level. The temporal layer was first performed for English, then evaluated and compared with: a) a general purpose QA system (F-measure 65.47% for QA plus English temporal layer vs. 38.01% for the general QA system), and b) a well-known QA system. Much better results were obtained for temporal questions with the multilayered system. This system was therefore extended to Spanish and very good results were again obtained in the evaluation (F-measure 40.36% for QA plus Spanish temporal layer vs. 22.94% for the general QA system).

We present a novel reasoning calculus for the description logic SHOIQ^+---a knowledge representation formalism with applications in areas such as the Semantic Web. Unnecessary nondeterminism and the construction of large models are two primary sources of inefficiency in the tableau-based reasoning calculi used in state-of-the-art reasoners. In order to reduce nondeterminism, we base our calculus on hypertableau and hyperresolution calculi, which we extend with a blocking condition to ensure termination. In order to reduce the size of the constructed models, we introduce anywhere pairwise blocking. We also present an improved nominal introduction rule that ensures termination in the presence of nominals, inverse roles, and number restrictions---a combination of DL constructs that has proven notoriously difficult to handle. Our implementation shows significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art reasoners on several well-known ontologies.

Learning the right graph representation from noisy, multisource data has garnered significant interest in recent years. A central tenet of this problem is relational learning. Here the objective is to incorporate the partial information each data source gives us in a way that captures the true underlying relationships. To address this challenge, we present a general, boosting-inspired framework for combining weak evidence of entity associations into a robust similarity metric. We explore the extent to which different quality measurements yield graph representations that are suitable for community detection. We then present empirical results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrating the utility of this framework. Our framework leads to suitable global graph representations from quality measurements local to each edge. Finally, we discuss future extensions and theoretical considerations of learning useful graph representations from weak feedback in general application settings.