Computer Science Division, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 Dept. of Physics & MIT Kavli Institute, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 and Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, 16-17 St. Ebbe's str., Oxford OX1 1PT, UK Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to humanity, and it is therefore worthwhile to investigate how to maximize these benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. This article gives numerous examples (which should by no means be construed as an exhaustive list) of such worthwhile research aimed at ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial. Artificial intelligence (AI) research has explored a variety of problems and approaches since its inception, but for the last 20 years or so has been focused on the problems surrounding the construction of intelligent agents - systems that perceive and act in some environment. In this context, the criterion for intelligence is related to statistical and economic notions of rationality-colloquially, the ability to make good decisions, plans, or inferences. The adoption of probabilistic representations and statistical learning methods has led to a large degree of integration and cross-fertilization between AI, machine learning, statistics, control theory, neuroscience, and other fields. The establishment of shared theoretical frameworks, combined with the availability of data and processing power, has yielded remarkable successes in various component tasks such as speech recognition, image classification, autonomous vehicles, machine translation, legged locomotion, and question-answering systems. As capabilities in these areas and others cross the threshold from laboratory research to economically valuable technologies, a virtuous cycle takes hold whereby even small improvements in performance are worth large sums of money, prompting greater investments in research. There is now a broad consensus that AI research is progressing steadily, and that its impact on society is likely to increase.

Penetration testing is regarded as the gold-standard for understanding how well an organization can withstand sophisticated cyber-attacks. However, the recent prevalence of markets specializing in zero-day exploits on the darknet make exploits widely available to potential attackers. The cost associated with these sophisticated kits generally precludes penetration testers from simply obtaining such exploits -- so an alternative approach is needed to understand what exploits an attacker will most likely purchase and how to defend against them. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven security game framework to model an attacker and provide policy recommendations to the defender. In addition to providing a formal framework and algorithms to develop strategies, we present experimental results from applying our framework, for various system configurations, on real-world exploit market data actively mined from the darknet.

Foodborne illness afflicts 48 million people annually in the U.S.alone. Over 128,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 die from the infection.While preventable with proper food safety practices, the traditional restaurant inspection process has limited impact given the predictability and low frequency of inspections, and the dynamic nature of the kitchen environment. Despite this reality, the inspection process has remained largely unchanged for decades. We apply machine learning to Twitter data and develop a system that automatically detects venues likely to pose a public health hazard.Health professionals subsequently inspect individual flagged venues in a double blind experiment spanning the entire Las Vegas metropolitan area over three months. By contrast, previous research in this domain has been limited to indirect correlative validation using only aggregate statistics. We show that adaptive inspection process is 63% more effective at identifying problematic venues than the current state of the art. The live deployment shows that if every inspection in Las Vegas became adaptive, we can prevent over 9,000 cases of foodborne illness and 557 hospitalizations annually. Additionally,adaptive inspections result in unexpected benefits, including the identification of venues lacking permits, contagious kitchen staff,and fewer customer complaints filed with the Las Vegas health department.

The stochastic blockmodel (SBM) is a generative model for network data introduced in Holland et al. (1983). The SBM is a member of the general class of latent position random graph models introduced in Hoff et al. (2002). These models have been used in various application domains as diverse as social networks (vertices may represent people with edges indicating social interaction), citation networks (who cites whom), connectomics (brain connectivity networks; vertices may represent neurons with edges indicating axon-synapse-dendrite connections, or vertices may represent brain regions with edges indicating connectivity between regions), and many others. For comprehensive reviews of statistical models and applications, see Fienberg (2010), Goldenberg et al. (2010), Fienberg (2012). In general, statistical inference on graphs is becoming essential in many areas of science, engineering, and business. The SBM supposes that each of n vertices is assigned to one of K blocks. The probability of an 1 edge between two vertices depends only on their respective block memberships, and the presence of edges are conditionally independent given block memberships.

Multinomial probit (MNP) model for discrete choice modeling is often used in economics, market research, political sciences and transportation. It models the choices made by agents given their demographic characteristics and/or the features of the K 2 available choice alternatives. Examples include the study of consumer's purchasing behavior (e.g., McCulloch et al. (2000); Imai and van Dyk (2005)); voting behavior in multi-party elections (e.g., Quinn et al. (1999)); and choice of different modes of transportation (e.g., Bolduc (1999)). Details of the MNP model in which choices depend on predictors in a linear fashion is studied in McFadden et al.(1973); McFadden(1989); Keane(1992); McCulloch and Rossi (1994); Nobile (1998); McCulloch et al. (2000); Imai and van Dyk (2005); Train (2009); Burgette and Nordheim (2012) among others. Among widely used multinomial choice modeling procedures are the multinomial logit model (e.g., McFadden et al. (1973); Train (2009)) and multinomial probit model (e.g., McFadden (1989); McCulloch and Rossi (1994); Imai and van Dyk (2005)). The former relies on an assumption that a choice outcome is independent of removal (or introduction) of an irrelevant choice alternative while the latter including MPBART does not make this restrictive assumption.

This paper introduces a novel graph-analytic approach for detecting anomalies in network flow data called GraphPrints. Building on foundational network-mining techniques, our method represents time slices of traffic as a graph, then counts graphlets -- small induced subgraphs that describe local topology. By performing outlier detection on the sequence of graphlet counts, anomalous intervals of traffic are identified, and furthermore, individual IPs experiencing abnormal behavior are singled-out. Initial testing of GraphPrints is performed on real network data with an implanted anomaly. Evaluation shows false positive rates bounded by 2.84% at the time-interval level, and 0.05% at the IP-level with 100% true positive rates at both.

Traditionally, practitioners initialize the {\tt k-means} algorithm with centers chosen uniformly at random. Randomized initialization with uneven weights ({\tt k-means++}) has recently been used to improve the performance over this strategy in cost and run-time. We consider the k-means problem with semi-supervised information, where some of the data are pre-labeled, and we seek to label the rest according to the minimum cost solution. By extending the {\tt k-means++} algorithm and analysis to account for the labels, we derive an improved theoretical bound on expected cost and observe improved performance in simulated and real data examples. This analysis provides theoretical justification for a roughly linear semi-supervised clustering algorithm.

This paper introduces a new unsupervised method for dimensionality reduction via regression (DRR). The algorithm belongs to the family of invertible transforms that generalize Principal Component Analysis (PCA) by using curvilinear instead of linear features. DRR identifies the nonlinear features through multivariate regression to ensure the reduction in redundancy between he PCA coefficients, the reduction of the variance of the scores, and the reduction in the reconstruction error. More importantly, unlike other nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods, the invertibility, volume-preservation, and straightforward out-of-sample extension, makes DRR interpretable and easy to apply. The properties of DRR enable learning a more broader class of data manifolds than the recently proposed Non-linear Principal Components Analysis (NLPCA) and Principal Polynomial Analysis (PPA). We illustrate the performance of the representation in reducing the dimensionality of remote sensing data. In particular, we tackle two common problems: processing very high dimensional spectral information such as in hyperspectral image sounding data, and dealing with spatial-spectral image patches of multispectral images. Both settings pose collinearity and ill-determination problems. Evaluation of the expressive power of the features is assessed in terms of truncation error, estimating atmospheric variables, and surface land cover classification error. Results show that DRR outperforms linear PCA and recently proposed invertible extensions based on neural networks (NLPCA) and univariate regressions (PPA).

The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning, and models in big data was held in 2015 in Canada, under the general direction of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, with major funding from, and most activities located at, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences. This paper gives an overview of the topics covered, describing challenges and strategies that seem common to many different areas of application, and including some examples of applications to make these challenges and strategies more concrete.

Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling the joint dynamics of multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model quickly becomes overparameterized, making reliable estimation difficult and impeding its adoption as a forecasting tool in high dimensional settings. A number of authors have sought to address this issue by incorporating regularized approaches, such as the lasso, that impose sparse or low-rank structures on the estimated coefficient parameters of the VAR. More traditional approaches attempt to address overparameterization by selecting a low lag order, based on the assumption that dynamic dependence among components is short-range. However, these methods typically assume a single, universal lag order that applies across all components, unnecessarily constraining the dynamic relationship between the components and impeding forecast performance. The lasso-based approaches are more flexible but do not incorporate the notion of lag order selection. We propose a new class of regularized VAR models, called hierarchical vector autoregression (HVAR), that embed the notion of lag selection into a convex regularizer. The key convex modeling tool is a group lasso with nested groups which ensure the sparsity pattern of autoregressive lag coefficients honors the ordered structure inherent to VAR. We provide computationally efficient algorithms for solving HVAR problems that can be parallelized across the components. A simulation study shows the improved performance in forecasting and lag order selection over previous approaches, and a macroeconomic application further highlights forecasting improvements as well as the convenient, interpretable output of a HVAR model.