When market works and when it fails has been an issue long pursued by economists. While to an extreme extent the view, as characterized by the “invisible hand” or “market mechanism”, has been so dominant in economics education and public policy debates, it is generally acceptable that markets are not out there and have to designed properly so as to work (McMillan, 2004). The significance of designs has been further illustrated by experimental economics. As opposed to designs, what, however, has been drawn less attention is the role of traders, their characteristics and behavior. To one extreme, one may consider that a good design is so dominant that there leaves little room for individual traders to play a role. The literature inspired by the zero-intelligence agent (Gode and Sunder, 1993) provides a good background of this issue, and many later studies do cast doubt on the sufficiency of this minimal intelligence and propose different versions of additional intelligence.  

For example, word recognition can greatly benefit from the availability of joint audiovisual measurements [17]. Person recognition and verification can be performed much more accurately by fusing information from several modalities such as facial images, iris scans, voice recordings, and handwritings. A major difficulty in fusing multiple sources is that one can often access only distinct labeled training sets for the different domains and does not have paired labeled examples from all domains. Suppose, for instance, we wish to perform audiovisual gender recognition. There are numerous existing data-sets of labeled voice recordings as well as labeled data-sets of facial images. However, there are only a few jointly labeled audiovisual data-sets, with a limited number of different subjects each.

In recent years, a rich variety of shrinkage priors have been proposed that have great promise in addressing massive regression problems. In general, these new priors can be expressed as scale mixtures of normals, but have more complex forms and better properties than traditional Cauchy and double exponential priors. We first propose a new class of normal scale mixtures through a novel generalized beta distribution that encompasses many interesting priors as special cases. This encompassing framework should prove useful in comparing competing priors, considering properties and revealing close connections. We then develop a class of variational Bayes approximations through the new hierarchy presented that will scale more efficiently to the types of truly massive data sets that are now encountered routinely.

To understand the structural dynamics of a large-scale social, biological or technological network, it may be useful to discover behavioral roles representing the main connectivity patterns present over time. In this paper, we propose a scalable nonparametric approach to automatically learn the structural dynamics of the network and individual nodes. Roles may represent structural or behavioral patterns such as the center of a star, peripheral nodes, or bridge nodes that connect different communities. Our novel approach learns the appropriate structural "role" dynamics for any arbitrary network and tracks the changes over time. In particular, we uncover the specific global network dynamics and the local node dynamics of a technological, communication, and social network. We identify interesting node and network patterns such as stationary and non-stationary roles, spikes/steps in role-memberships (perhaps indicating anomalies), increasing/decreasing role trends, among many others. Our results indicate that the nodes in each of these networks have distinct connectivity patterns that are nonstationary and evolve considerably over time. Overall, the experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for fast mining and tracking of the dynamics in large networks. Furthermore, the dynamic structural representation provides a basis for building more sophisticated models and tools that are fast for exploring large dynamic networks.

We focus on the problem of sequential decision making in partially observable environments shared with other agents of uncertain types having similar or conflicting objectives. This problem has been previously formalized by multiple frameworks one of which is the interactive dynamic influence diagram (I-DID), which generalizes the well-known influence diagram to the multiagent setting. I-DIDs are graphical models and may be used to compute the policy of an agent given its belief over the physical state and others' models, which changes as the agent acts and observes in the multiagent setting. As we may expect, solving I-DIDs is computationally hard. This is predominantly due to the large space of candidate models ascribed to the other agents and its exponential growth over time. We present two methods for reducing the size of the model space and stemming its exponential growth. Both these methods involve aggregating individual models into equivalence classes. Our first method groups together behaviorally equivalent models and selects only those models for updating which will result in predictive behaviors that are distinct from others in the updated model space. The second method further compacts the model space by focusing on portions of the behavioral predictions. Specifically, we cluster actionally equivalent models that prescribe identical actions at a single time step. Exactly identifying the equivalences would require us to solve all models in the initial set. We avoid this by selectively solving some of the models, thereby introducing an approximation. We discuss the error introduced by the approximation, and empirically demonstrate the improved efficiency in solving I-DIDs due to the equivalences.

We postulate that the nature of information items plays a vital role in the observed spread of these items in a social network. We capture this intuition by proposing a model that assigns to every information item two parameters: endogeneity and exogeneity. The endogeneity of the item quantifies its tendency to spread primarily through the connections between nodes; the exogeneity quantifies its tendency to be acquired by the nodes, independently of the underlying network. We also extend this item-based model to take into account the openness of each node to new information. We quantify openness by introducing the receptivity of a node. Given a social network and data related to the ordering of adoption of information items by nodes, we develop a maximum-likelihood framework for estimating endogeneity, exogeneity and receptivity parameters. We apply our methodology to synthetic and real data and demonstrate its efficacy as a data-analytic tool.

Social media plays an important role in the process of political engagement, especially in societies where significant constraints over traditional media and participation still exist. Little is known about how social media use is related to these constraints. This study examines how citizens’ perceptions of government control predict social media use and how this use is related to offline participation in the context of a city-state, Singapore. Based on a national survey of 2000 respondents, we found that perceptions of control over traditional media and political activity increase content production on social media and that perceived control of the mass media motivates citizens to consume political content on social media. Interestingly, perceptions of government control over the Internet reduced rather than increased social media production. More importantly, we find that social media use is related to a greater likelihood of offline citizen participation, namely attendance of political rallies. The findings suggest that social media alters the balance of power in the dependency relationships that exist between the government, media organizations and citizens, creating new venues for online political discourse which in turn help promote real-world political participation.

We describe a simple IR approach for linking news about events, detected by an event extraction system, to messages from Twitter (tweets). In particular, we explore several methods for creating event-specific queries for Twitter and provide a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the relevance and usefulness of the information obtained from the tweets. We showed that methods based on utilization of word co-occurrence clustering, domain-specific keywords and named entity recognition improve the performance with respect to a basic approach.

We describe a system for automatically ranking documents by degree of militancy, designed as a tool both for finding militant websites and prioritizing the data found. We compare three ranking systems, one employing a small hand-selected vocabulary based on group membership markers used by insiders to identify members and member properties (us) and outsiders and threats (them), one with a much larger vocabulary, and another with a small vocabulary chosen by Mutual Information. We use the same vocabularies to build classifiers. The ranker that achieves the best correlations with human judgments uses the small us-them vocabulary. We confirm and extend recent results in sentiment analysis (paltoglou 2010), showing that a feature-weighting scheme taken from classical IR (TFIDF) produces the best ranking system; we also find, surprisingly, that adjusting these weights with SVM training, while producing a better classifier, produces a worse ranker. Increasing vocabulary size similarly improves classification (while worsening ranking).

Nowadays, the use of social media such as Twitter is necessary to monitor trends of people on political issues. As a case study, we collected the main stream of Twitter related to the 2010 UK general election during the associated period. We analyse the characteristics of the three main parties in the election. Also, we propose a simple and practical algorithm to identify the political leaning of users using the amount of Twitter messages which seem related to political parties. The experimental results showed that the best-performing classification method -- which uses the number of Twitter messages referring to a particular political party -- achieved about 86% classification accuracy without any training phase.