This paper considers the problem of knowledge-based model construction in the presence of uncertainty about the association of domain entities to random variables. Multi-entity Bayesian networks (MEBNs) are defined as a representation for knowledge in domains characterized by uncertainty in the number of relevant entities, their interrelationships, and their association with observables. An MEBN implicitly specifies a probability distribution in terms of a hierarchically structured collection of Bayesian network fragments that together encode a joint probability distribution over arbitrarily many interrelated hypotheses. Although a finite query-complete model can always be constructed, association uncertainty typically makes exact model construction and evaluation intractable. The objective of hypothesis management is to balance tractability against accuracy. We describe an application to the problem of using intelligence reports to infer the organization and activities of groups of military vehicles. Our approach is compared to related work in the tracking and fusion literature.

This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total accumulated loss comparable to that of the best comparator sequence, and existing tracking or shifting regret bounds scale with the overall variation of the comparator sequence. In many practical scenarios, however, the environment is nonstationary and comparator sequences with small variation are quite weak, resulting in large losses. The proposed Dynamic Mirror Descent method, in contrast, can yield low regret relative to highly variable comparator sequences by both tracking the best dynamical model and forming predictions based on that model. This concept is demonstrated empirically in the context of sequential compressive observations of a dynamic scene and tracking a dynamic social network.

While three deployed applications of game theory for security have recently been reported, we as a community of agents and AI researchers remain in the early stages of these deployments; there is a continuing need to understand the core principles for innovative security applications of game theory. PROTECT is premised on an attacker-defender Stackelberg game model and offers five key innovations. First, this system is a departure from the assumption of perfect adversary rationality noted in previous work, relying instead on a quantal response (QR) model of the adversary's behavior --- to the best of our knowledge, this is the first real-world deployment of the QR model. Fourth, our experimental results illustrate that PROTECT's QR model more robustly handles real-world uncertainties than a perfect rationality model.

Although, Chinese and Spanish are two of the most spoken languages in the world, not much research has been done in machine translation for this language pair. This paper focuses on investigating the state-of-the-art of Chinese-to-Spanish statistical machine translation (Smt), which nowadays is one of the most popular approaches to machine translation. For this purpose, we report details of the available parallel corpus which are Basic Traveller Expressions Corpus (Btec), Holy Bible and United Nations (Un). Additionally, we conduct experimental work with the largest of these three corpora to explore alternative Smt strategies by means of using a pivot language. Three alternatives are considered for pivoting: cascading, pseudo-corpus and triangulation. As pivot language, we use either English, Arabic or French. Results show that, for a phrase-based Smt system, English is the best pivot language between Chinese and Spanish. We propose a system output combination using the pivot strategies which is capable of outperforming the direct translation strategy. The main objective of this work is motivating and involving the research community to work in this important pair of languages given their demographic impact.

Recent advances in 3D sensing technologies make it possible to easily record color and depth images which together can improve object recognition. Most current methods rely on very well-designed features for this new 3D modality. We introduce a model based on a combination of convolutional and recursive neural networks (CNN and RNN) for learning features and classifying RGB-D images. The CNN layer learns low-level translationally invariant features which are then given as inputs to multiple, fixed-tree RNNs in order to compose higher order features. RNNs can be seen as combining convolution and pooling into one efficient, hierarchical operation. Our main result is that even RNNs with random weights compose powerful features. Our model obtains state of the art performance on a standard RGB-D object dataset while being more accurate and faster during training and testing than comparable architectures such as two-layer CNNs.

Recent advances in 3D sensing technologies make it possible to easily record color and depth images which together can improve object recognition. Most current methods rely on very well-designed features for this new 3D modality. We introduce a model based on a combination of convolutional and recursive neural networks (CNN and RNN) for learning features and classifying RGB-D images. The CNN layer learns low-level translationally invariant features which are then given as inputs to multiple, fixed-tree RNNs in order to compose higher order features. RNNs can be seen as combining convolution and pooling into one efficient, hierarchical operation. Our main result is that even RNNs with random weights compose powerful features. Our model obtains state of the art performance on a standard RGB-D object dataset while being more accurate and faster during training and testing than comparable architectures such as two-layer CNNs.

While three deployed applications of game theory for security have recently been reported, we as a community of agents and AI researchers remain in the early stages of these deployments; there is a continuing need to understand the core principles for innovative security applications of game theory. Towards that end, this paper presents PROTECT, a game-theoretic system deployed by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) in the port of Boston for scheduling their patrols. USCG has termed the deployment of PROTECT in Boston a success, and efforts are underway to test it in the port of New York, with the potential for nationwide deployment.PROTECT is premised on an attacker-defender Stackelberg game model and offers five key innovations. First, this system is a departure from the assumption of perfect adversary rationality noted in previous work, relying instead on a quantal response (QR) model of the adversary's behavior --- to the best of our knowledge, this is the first real-world deployment of the QR model. Second, to improve PROTECT's efficiency, we generate a compact representation of the defender's strategy space, exploiting equivalence and dominance. Third, we show how to practically model a real maritime patrolling problem as a Stackelberg game. Fourth, our experimental results illustrate that PROTECT's QR model more robustly handles real-world uncertainties than a perfect rationality model. Finally, in evaluating PROTECT, this paper for the first time provides real-world data: (i) comparison of human-generated vs PROTECT security schedules, and (ii) results from an Adversarial Perspective Team's (human mock attackers) analysis.

At one of those conferences, I met John. Stanford moved toward a computer science department under the leadership of George Forsythe, John suggested to George, and then supported, the idea of hiring me into the founding faculty of the department. Since we were both Advanced Research Project Agency (ARPA) contract awardees, we quickly formed a close bond concerning ARPA-sponsored AI research and graduate student teaching. And the joint intelligence of both of us was quickly deployed in a very rapid and, in retrospect, brilliant decision to hire Les Earnest to be the executive officer of the new Stanford AI Lab that ARPA supported. John McCarthy's first breakthrough paper was his 1958 Teddington Symposium paper on programs with commonsense reasoning abilities.

Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools for analyzing constrained, continuous domains. However, finding most-probable explanations (MPEs) in these models can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we improve the scalability of MPE inference in a class of graphical models with piecewise-linear and piecewise-quadratic dependencies and linear constraints over continuous domains. We derive algorithms based on a consensus-optimization framework and demonstrate their superior performance over state of the art. We show empirically that in a large-scale voter-preference modeling problem our algorithms scale linearly in the number of dependencies and constraints.

This paper addresses the problem of category-level 3D object detection. Given a monocular image, our aim is to localize the objects in 3D by enclosing them with tight oriented 3D bounding boxes. We propose a novel approach that extends the well-acclaimed deformable part-based model[Felz.] to reason in 3D. Our model represents an object class as a deformable 3D cuboid composed of faces and parts, which are both allowed to deform with respect to their anchors on the 3D box. We model the appearance of each face in fronto-parallel coordinates, thus effectively factoring out the appearance variation induced by viewpoint. Our model reasons about face visibility patters called aspects. We train the cuboid model jointly and discriminatively and share weights across all aspects to attain efficiency. Inference then entails sliding and rotating the box in 3D and scoring object hypotheses. While for inference we discretize the search space, the variables are continuous in our model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in indoor and outdoor scenarios, and show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art in both 2D[Felz09] and 3D object detection[Hedau12].