Attributing a cyber-operation through the use of multiple pieces of technical evidence (i.e., malware reverse-engineering and source tracking) and conventional intelligence sources (i.e., human or signals intelligence) is a difficult problem not only due to the effort required to obtain evidence, but the ease with which an adversary can plant false evidence. In this paper, we introduce a formal reasoning system called the InCA (Intelligent Cyber Attribution) framework that is designed to aid an analyst in the attribution of a cyber-operation even when the available information is conflicting and/or uncertain. Our approach combines argumentation-based reasoning, logic programming, and probabilistic models to not only attribute an operation but also explain to the analyst why the system reaches its conclusions.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in modeling planning with information constraints. Accordingly, an agent maximizes a regularized expected utility known as the free energy, where the regularizer is given by the information divergence from a prior to a posterior policy. While this approach can be justified in various ways, including from statistical mechanics and information theory, it is still unclear how it relates to decisionmaking against adversarial environments. This connection has previously been suggested in work relating the free energy to risk-sensitive control and to extensive form games. Here, we show that a single-agent free energy optimization is equivalent to a game between the agent and an imaginary adversary. The adversary can, by paying an exponential penalty, generate costs that diminish the decision maker's payoffs. It turns out that the optimal strategy of the adversary consists in choosing costs so as to render the decision maker indifferent among its choices, which is a definining property of a Nash equilibrium, thus tightening the connection between free energy optimization and game theory. Keywords: bounded rationality, free energy, game theory, Legendre-Fenchel transform.

This paper introduces hierarchical quasi-clustering methods, a generalization of hierarchical clustering for asymmetric networks where the output structure preserves the asymmetry of the input data. We show that this output structure is equivalent to a finite quasi-ultrametric space and study admissibility with respect to two desirable properties. We prove that a modified version of single linkage is the only admissible quasi-clustering method. Moreover, we show stability of the proposed method and we establish invariance properties fulfilled by it. Algorithms are further developed and the value of quasi-clustering analysis is illustrated with a study of internal migration within United States.

The intent of this research is to generate a set of non-dominated policies from which one of two agents (the leader) can select a most preferred policy to control a dynamic system that is also affected by the control decisions of the other agent (the follower). The problem is described by an infinite horizon, partially observed Markov game (POMG). At each decision epoch, each agent knows: its past and present states, its past actions, and noise corrupted observations of the other agent's past and present states. The actions of each agent are determined at each decision epoch based on these data. The leader considers multiple objectives in selecting its policy. The follower considers a single objective in selecting its policy with complete knowledge of and in response to the policy selected by the leader. This leader-follower assumption allows the POMG to be transformed into a specially structured, partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). This POMDP is used to determine the follower's best response policy. A multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is used to create the next generation of leader policies based on the fitness measures of each leader policy in the current generation. Computing a fitness measure for a leader policy requires a value determination calculation, given the leader policy and the follower's best response policy. The policies from which the leader can select a most preferred policy are the non-dominated policies of the final generation of leader policies created by the MOGA. An example is presented that illustrates how these results can be used to support a manager of a liquid egg production process (the leader) in selecting a sequence of actions to best control this process over time, given that there is an attacker (the follower) who seeks to contaminate the liquid egg production process with a chemical or biological toxin.

We propose a new approach for metric learning by framing it as learning a sparse combination of locally discriminative metrics that are inexpensive to generate from the training data. This flexible framework allows us to naturally derive formulations for global, multi-task and local metric learning. The resulting algorithms have several advantages over existing methods in the literature: a much smaller number of parameters to be estimated and a principled way to generalize learned metrics to new testing data points. To analyze the approach theoretically, we derive a generalization bound that justifies the sparse combination. Empirically, we evaluate our algorithms on several datasets against state-of-the-art metric learning methods. The results are consistent with our theoretical findings and demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of classification performance and scalability.

Scoring systems are classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few meaningful numbers to make a prediction. These models are often used because they are practical and interpretable. In this paper, we introduce an off-the-shelf tool to create scoring systems that both accurate and interpretable, known as a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM is a discrete optimization problem that minimizes the 0-1 loss to encourage a high level of accuracy, regularizes the L0-norm to encourage a high level of sparsity, and constrains coefficients to a set of interpretable values. We illustrate the practical and interpretable nature of SLIM scoring systems through applications in medicine and criminology, and show that they are are accurate and sparse in comparison to state-of-the-art classification models using numerical experiments.

This article focuses on the problem of patterns of life (POL), which emerge from human social systems. It describes conflicting requirements for this problem and potential AI solutions.

In this paper, we study the problem of approximately computing the product of two real matrices. In particular, we analyze a dimensionality-reduction-based approximation algorithm due to Sarlos [1], introducing the notion of nuclear rank as the ratio of the nuclear norm over the spectral norm. The presented bound has improved dependence with respect to the approximation error (as compared to previous approaches), whereas the subspace -- on which we project the input matrices -- has dimensions proportional to the maximum of their nuclear rank and it is independent of the input dimensions. In addition, we provide an application of this result to linear low-dimensional embeddings. Namely, we show that any Euclidean point-set with bounded nuclear rank is amenable to projection onto number of dimensions that is independent of the input dimensionality, while achieving additive error guarantees.

Hierarchies are the most common structure used to understand the world better. In galaxies, for instance, multiple-star systems are organised in a hierarchical system. Then, governmental and company organisations are structured using a hierarchy, while the Internet, which is used on a daily basis, has a space of domain names arranged hierarchically. Since Artificial Intelligence (AI) planning portrays information about the world and reasons to solve some of world's problems, Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) planning has been introduced almost 40 years ago to represent and deal with hierarchies. Its requirement for rich domain knowledge to characterise the world enables HTN planning to be very useful, but also to perform well. However, the history of almost 40 years obfuscates the current understanding of HTN planning in terms of accomplishments, planning models, similarities and differences among hierarchical planners, and its current and objective image. On top of these issues, attention attracts the ability of hierarchical planning to truly cope with the requirements of applications from the real world. We propose a framework-based approach to remedy this situation. First, we provide a basis for defining different formal models of hierarchical planning, and define two models that comprise a large portion of HTN planners. Second, we provide a set of concepts that helps to interpret HTN planners from the aspect of their search space. Then, we analyse and compare the planners based on a variety of properties organised in five segments, namely domain authoring, expressiveness, competence, performance and applicability. Furthermore, we select Web service composition as a real-world and current application, and classify and compare the approaches that employ HTN planning to solve the problem of service composition. Finally, we conclude with our findings and present directions for future work.

The fundamental step in measuring the robustness of a system is the synthesis of the so called Process Map.This is generally based on the user raw data material.Process Maps are of fundamental importance towards the understanding of the nature of a system in that they indicate which variables are causally related and which are particularly important.This paper represent the system Map or business structure map to understand business criteria studying the various aspects of the company.The business structure map or knowledge map or Process map are used to increase the growth of the company by giving some useful measures according to the business criteria.This paper also deals with the different company strategy to reduce the risk factors.Process Map is helpful for building such knowledge successfully.Making decisions from such map in a highly complex situation requires more knowledge and resources.