Government
Can Behavioral Science Help in Flint?
A week after Donald Trump's election, a thirty-year-old cognitive scientist named Maya Shankar purchased a plane ticket to Flint, Michigan. Shankar held one of the more unorthodox jobs in the Obama White House, running the Social and Behavioral Sciences Team, also known as the President's "nudge unit." When she launched the team, in early 2014, it felt, Shankar recalls, "like a startup in my parents' basement"--no budget, no mandate, no bona-fide employees. Within two years, the small group of scientists had become a staff of dozens--including an agricultural economist, an industrial psychologist, and "human-centered designers"--working with more than twenty federal agencies on seventy projects, from fixing gaps in veterans' health care to relieving student debt. Usually, the initiatives had, at their core, one question: Could the growing body of knowledge about the quirks of the human brain be used to improve public policy? For months, Shankar had been thinking about how to bring behavioral science to bear on the problems in Flint, where a crisis stemming from lead contamination of the drinking water had stretched on for almost two years. She wondered if lessons from the beleaguered city could inform the Administration's approach to the broader threat posed by lead across America--in pipes, in paint, in dust, and in soil. "Flint is not the only place poisoning kids," Shankar said. In recent years, behavioral science has become a voguish field. In 2002, the Israeli psychologist Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work with a colleague, Amos Tversky, exploring the peculiarities of human decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A basic premise of the discipline they'd helped to create was that people's cognition is bias-prone, and susceptible to the cognitive equivalent of optical illusions. As a result, small tweaks of presentation or circumstance could make a major difference: if a judge rendered a decision about granting parole just before a meal, the inmate's odds for a favorable outcome dipped to near zero; just after the judge ate, the chances rose to around sixty-five per cent. Grocers had learned that they could sell double the amount of soup if they placed a sign above their cans reading "limit of 12 per person." But, for all the field's potential, its advances seemed mostly to have served the private sector. A prominent exception was the "nudge," a notion advanced by the legal scholar Cass R. Sunstein, now at Harvard Law School, and the University of Chicago behavioral economist Richard Thaler, in their 2008 best-seller "Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness."
Nightmarish vision of the world as seen through the eyes of Google
These nightmarish images offer a unique and mesmerizing insight into how computers see the world - and what happens when a mind-bogglingly complex system of artificial intelligence is let off its leash. To discern and process the billions of photos that pass through its site, Google engineers designed ingenious tools known as artificial neural networks, or'ANNs'. Google's ANNs are programmed, through an endless stream of similar photos, to recognise objects within images by their distinctive characteristics. For example, the ANN will be taught to recognise a fork by processing millions of pictures of forks - eventually understanding that it has a handle and two to four tines. Now Google is offering the public these networks' codes - allowing people to upload photos and mutate them into terrifying and wonderful versions of the original.
AI isn't just for the good guys anymore
Last summer at the Black Hat cybersecurity conference, the DARPA Cyber Grand Challenge pitted automated systems against one another, trying to find weaknesses in the others' code and exploit them. "This is a great example of how easily machines can find and exploit new vulnerabilities, something we'll likely see increase and become more sophisticated over time," said David Gibson, vice president of strategy and market development at Varonis Systems. His company hasn't seen any examples of hackers leveraging artificial intelligence technology or machine learning, but nobody adopts new technologies faster than the sin and hacking industries, he said. "So it's safe to assume that hackers are already using AI for their evil purposes," he said. "It has never been easier for white hats and black hats to obtain and learn the tools of the machine learning trade," said Don Maclean, chief cybersecurity technologist at DLT Solutions.
IZA World of Labor - Who owns the robots rules the world
The 2012 publication Race against the Machine makes the case that the digitalization of work activities is proceeding so rapidly as to cause dislocations in the job market beyond anything previously experienced [1]. Unlike past mechanization/automation, which affected lower-skill blue-collar and white-collar work, today's information technology affects workers high in the education and skill distribution. Machines can substitute for brains as well as brawn. On one estimate, about 47% of total US employment is at risk of computerization [2]. If you doubt whether a robot or some other machine equipped with digital intelligence connected to the internet could outdo you or me in our work in the foreseeable future, consider news reports about an IBM program to "create" new food dishes (chefs beware), the battle between anesthesiologists and computer programs/robots that do their job much cheaper, and the coming version of Watson ("twice as powerful as the original") based on computers connected over the internet via IBM's Cloud [3]. On the darker side, you do not have to be paranoid to be paranoid about the potential technologies that the super-secret computers of the US National Security Agency (NSA) have on their digital drawing-boards.
How small businesses can thrive amid technology changes
Futurist Jack Uldrich warns of technology threats at a conference sponsored by Store Capital. Jack Uldrich flashed a photo showing a homeless man accepting donations through his cellphone. "The world is changing in strange ways," he quipped. It was a lighter moment against a backdrop of some anxiety and uncertainty as Uldrich, an author and futurist, warned a small-business audience in Scottsdale this past week about the accelerating technological changes that already have devastated taxi-cab companies, video-rental stores, some retailers and many other businesses, with more disruption ahead. It was one segment of a conference designed not just to warn businesses about looming threats but to help them identity things they might not be doing well -- tips ranged from honing your marketing message to encouraging a culture of innovation, from acknowledging failures will happen to hiring young adults as "reverse mentors."
The Atlantic Daily: Don't Bank On It
Fake News, Cont'd: During a TV interview last night, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway attempted to defend her boss's travel ban by pointing to "the Bowling Green Massacre"--which never took place. Conway tweeted that she "meant to say'Bowling Green terrorists,'" but her gaffe falls into a larger pattern of the Trump administration's "alternative facts." One true fact about the travel ban is that it revoked 60,000 visas--though a DOJ attorney erroneously said 100,000 earlier today. That error was poorly timed, since there's been a recent increase in fake news aimed at the biases of Trump's detractors as well as his supporters. We talked to Brooke Binkowski of the rumor-debunking site Snopes about the rise of fake news among progressives and what to do about it.
Solar Decathlon Competition: Towards a Solar-Powered Smart Home
Zulas, Amanda Leah (Washington State University) | Franz, Kaitlyn I. (Washington State University) | Griechen, Darrin (Washington State University) | Taylor, Matthew E. (Washington State University)
Alternative energy is becoming a growing source of power in the United States, including wind, hydroelectric and solar. The Solar Decathlon is a competition run by the US Department of Energy every two years. Washington State University (WSU) is one of twenty teams recently selected to compete in the fall 2017 challenge. A central part to WSU's entry is incorporating new and existing smart home technology from the ground up. The smart home can help to optimize energy loads, battery life and general comfort of the user in the home. This paper discusses the high-level goals of the project, hardware selected, build strategy and anticipated approach.
Qualitative Reasoning about Cyber Intrusions
Robertson, Paul (DOLL Inc.) | Laddaga, Robert (Vanderbilt University) | Goldman, Robert (SIFT) | Burstein, Mark (SIFT) | Cerys, Daniel (DOLL Inc.)
In this paper we discuss work performed in an ambitious DARPA funded cyber security effort. The broad approach taken by the project was for the network to be self-aware and to self-adapt in order to dodge attacks. In critical systems, it is not always the best or practical thing, to shut down the network under attack. The paper describes the qualitative trust modeling and diagnosis system that maintains a model of trust for networked resources using a combination of two basic ideas: Conditional trust (based on conditional preference (CP-Nets) and the principle of maximum entropy (PME)). We describe Monte-Carlo simulations of using adaptive security based on our trust model. The results of the simulations show the trade-off, under ideal conditions, between additional resource provisioning and attack mitigation.
Goal Recognition with Noisy Observations
E-Martin, Yolanda (Universidad Politรฉcnica de Madrid (UPM)) | Smith, David E. (NASA Ames Research Center)
It may (2010) to estimate the probability of each possible goal be that one agent needs to monitor the activities of another based on the difference between the cost of the best plan agent, attempt to assist the other agent, or simply avoid getting for the goal given the observed actions, Cost(G O), and the in the way while performing its own duties. For all of cost of the best plan for the goal without the observed actions, these cases the agent needs to be able to realize what the Cost(G O). The big difference here is that the observations other agent is doing. In the absence of full and timely communication only indirectly give us probabilities for actions in of plans and goals, goal and plan recognition becomes the plan graph. We therefore first construct a Bayesian Network essential. Many goal recognition techniques allow the (BN) to estimate these action probabilities, and then sequence of observations to be incomplete, but few consider use this probability information in the plan graph to compute the possibility of noisy observations. In practice, this is not expected cost for each goal, given the observations.
Scalable Classifiers with ADMM and Transpose Reduction
Taylor, Gavin (United States Naval Academy) | Xu, Zheng (University of Maryland) | Goldstein, Tom (University of Maryland)
As datasets for machine learning grow larger, parallelization strategies become more and more important. Recent approaches to distributed modelfitting rely heavily either on consensus ADMM, where each node solves smallsub-problems using only local data, or on stochastic gradient methods thatdon't scale well to large numbers of cores in a cluster setting. For this reason, GPU clusters have become common prerequisites to large-scale machinelearning. This paper describes an unconventional training method that uses alternating direction methods and Bregman iteration to train a variety of machine learning models on CPUs while avoiding the drawbacks of consensus methods and without gradient descent steps. Using transpose reduction strategies, the proposed method reduces the optimization problems to a sequence of minimization sub-steps that can each be solved globally in closed form. The method provides strong scaling in the distributed setting, yielding linear speedups even when split over thousands of cores.