The time of year when crystal balls get a viewing and many pundits put out their annual predictions for the coming year. Rather than thinking up my own, I figured I'd regurgitate what many others are expecting to happen. Chris Preimesberger (@editingwhiz), who does a monthly #eweekchat on twitter, covers many of the worries facing organizations. People focus so much on the'things' themselves rather than the risk of an internet connection. This list discusses how IoT will grow up in 2017, how having a service component will be key, the complete mess of standards and simply, 'just because you can connect something to the Internet doesn't mean that you should.' NW talks about how cyber attacks will get worse due to IoT and gives some ideas on how to protect your data in 2017.

The following is the text of a talk I gave in San Francisco on December 1st, 2016. The audience was readers of my newsletter, Exponential View. You can sign up here. This is a long (7,500 word) transcript of the talk. You can scan it to see the slides and accompanying exhibits if that is easier. Or even read it in more than one sitting…. Exponential View has a purpose. In between all the emojis and all the spelling mistakes, this is what it's about: This is me on my first day at school back when I was in Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa. On the right is my friend Rehan, who I reconnected recently through Facebook. He is now known as Dr. Freeze and he does non-invasive body sculpting in Orange County. So I can get you a good rate. But I think it's important, this starting point is important. We often are inspired from where we come from and what the hell was I doing in Zambia? My dad was trained as economist and accountant, well he is retired now, but then he was an economist and was down in Zambia building the kind of institutions that we take for granted in countries like the U.S. and the U.K. to make the country function. Zambia had just got independence from the U.K. It needed a deeper civil service, it was having to build its legal system, create its system of distribution and so on. So I got an early exposure to the importance of economic institutions for making societies wealthier and making them work. While I was down in Zambia, which is a land-locked country and doesn't have great access to the sea and this is the 1970s, so we didn't have a vast range of toys.

Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news: Feature • Tech Story of the Year: Tay, Microsoft's Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chatterbot: "As many of you know by now, on Wednesday [March 23, 2016] we launched a chatbot called Tay. We are deeply sorry for the unintended offensive and hurtful tweets from Tay, which do not represent who we are or what we stand for, nor how we designed Tay. Tay is now offline and we'll look to bring Tay back only when we are confident we can better anticipate malicious intent that conflicts with our principles and values ... The logical place for us to engage with a massive group of users was Twitter. Unfortunately, in the first 24 hours of coming online, a coordinated attack by a subset of people exploited a vulnerability in Tay. Although we had prepared for many types of abuses of the system, we had made a critical oversight for this specific attack. We take full responsibility for not seeing this possibility ahead of time. We will take this lesson forward as well as those from our experiences in China, Japan and the U.S. Right now, we are hard at work addressing the specific vulnerability that was exposed by the attack on Tay."--Learning from Tay's introduction blogs.microsoft.com

An augmented Lagrangian (AL) can convert a constrained optimization problem into a sequence of simpler (e.g., unconstrained) problems which are then usually solved with local solvers. Recently, surrogate-based Bayesian optimization (BO) sub-solvers have been successfully deployed in the AL framework for a more global search in the presence of inequality constraints; however a drawback was that expected improvement (EI) evaluations relied on Monte Carlo. Here we introduce an alternative slack variable AL, and show that in this formulation the EI may be evaluated with library routines. The slack variables furthermore facilitate equality as well as inequality constraints, and mixtures thereof. We show our new slack "ALBO" compares favorably to the original. Its superiority over conventional alternatives is reinforced on several new mixed constraint examples.

Major natural or man-made disasters such as Hurricane Katrina or the 9/11 terror attacks pose significant challenges for emergency responders. First, they have to develop an understanding of the unfolding event either using their own resources or through third-parties such as the local population and agencies. Second, based on the information gathered, they need to deploy their teams in a flexible manner, ensuring that each team performs tasks in The most effective way. Third, given the dynamic nature of a disaster space, and the uncertainties involved in performing rescue missions, information about the disaster space and the actors within it needs to be managed to ensure that responders are always acting on up-to-date and trusted information. Against this background, this paper proposes a novel disaster response system called HAC-ER. Thus HAC-ER interweaves humans and agents, both robotic and software, in social relationships that augment their individual and collective capabilities. To design HAC-ER, we involved end-users including both experts and volunteers in a several participatory design workshops, lab studies, and field trials of increasingly advanced prototypes of individual components of HAC-ER as well as the overall system. This process generated a number of new quantitative and qualitative results but also raised a number of new research questions. HAC-ER thus demonstrates how such Human-Agent Collectives (HACs) can address key challenges in disaster response. Specifically, we show how HAC-ER utilises crowdsourcing combined with machine learning to obtain most important situational awareness from large streams of reports posted by members of the public and trusted organisations. We then show how this information can inform human-agent teams in coordinating multi-UAV deployments, as well as task planning for responders on the ground. Finally, HAC-ER incorporates an infrastructure and the associated intelligence for tracking and utilising the provenance of information shared across the entire system to ensure its accountability. We individually validate each of these elements of HAC-ER and show how they perform against standard (non-HAC) baselines and also elaborate on the evaluation of the overall system.

In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each iteration, so that the optimization process takes the form of a sequence of finite models of increasing complexity. As a side benefit, this can be used to easily and efficiently identify an appropriate number of hidden units during the optimization. The resulting model can also be used as an initialization for typical state-of-the-art RBM training algorithms such as contrastive divergence, leading to models with consistently higher test likelihood than random initialization.

Many practical perception systems exist within larger processes which often include interactions with users or additional components that are capable of evaluating the quality of predicted solutions. In these contexts, it is beneficial to provide these oracle mechanisms with multiple highly likely hypotheses rather than a single prediction. In this work, we pose the task of producing multiple outputs as a learning problem over an ensemble of deep networks -- introducing a novel stochastic gradient descent based approach to minimize the loss with respect to an oracle. Our method is simple to implement, agnostic to both architecture and loss function, and parameter-free. Our approach achieves lower oracle error compared to existing methods on a wide range of tasks and deep architectures. We also show qualitatively that solutions produced from our approach often provide interpretable representations of task ambiguity.

Recent work on deriving $O(\log T)$ anytime regret bounds for stochastic dueling bandit problems has considered mostly Condorcet winners, which do not always exist, and more recently, winners defined by the Copeland set, which do always exist. In this work, we consider a broad notion of winners defined by tournament solutions in social choice theory, which include the Copeland set as a special case but also include several other notions of winners such as the top cycle, uncovered set, and Banks set, and which, like the Copeland set, always exist. We develop a family of UCB-style dueling bandit algorithms for such general tournament solutions, and show $O(\log T)$ anytime regret bounds for them. Experiments confirm the ability of our algorithms to achieve low regret relative to the target winning set of interest.

Boltzmann machines are able to learn highly complex, multimodal, structured and multiscale real-world data distributions. Parameters of the model are usually learned by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from training samples to the learned model. We propose in this work a novel approach for Boltzmann machine training which assumes that a meaningful metric between observations is known. This metric between observations can then be used to define the Wasserstein distance between the distribution induced by the Boltzmann machine on the one hand, and that given by the training sample on the other hand. We derive a gradient of that distance with respect to the model parameters. Minimization of this new objective leads to generative models with different statistical properties. We demonstrate their practical potential on data completion and denoising, for which the metric between observations plays a crucial role.

We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma-Poisson construction--a natural choice for count data--and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithmthat advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Finally, we demonstrate the model's inductive bias using a variety of real-world data sets, showing that it exhibits superior predictive performance over other models and infers highly interpretable latent structure.