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IZA World of Labor - Who owns the robots rules the world

#artificialintelligence

The 2012 publication Race against the Machine makes the case that the digitalization of work activities is proceeding so rapidly as to cause dislocations in the job market beyond anything previously experienced [1]. Unlike past mechanization/automation, which affected lower-skill blue-collar and white-collar work, today's information technology affects workers high in the education and skill distribution. Machines can substitute for brains as well as brawn. On one estimate, about 47% of total US employment is at risk of computerization [2]. If you doubt whether a robot or some other machine equipped with digital intelligence connected to the internet could outdo you or me in our work in the foreseeable future, consider news reports about an IBM program to "create" new food dishes (chefs beware), the battle between anesthesiologists and computer programs/robots that do their job much cheaper, and the coming version of Watson ("twice as powerful as the original") based on computers connected over the internet via IBM's Cloud [3]. On the darker side, you do not have to be paranoid to be paranoid about the potential technologies that the super-secret computers of the US National Security Agency (NSA) have on their digital drawing-boards.


How small businesses can thrive amid technology changes

#artificialintelligence

Futurist Jack Uldrich warns of technology threats at a conference sponsored by Store Capital. Jack Uldrich flashed a photo showing a homeless man accepting donations through his cellphone. "The world is changing in strange ways," he quipped. It was a lighter moment against a backdrop of some anxiety and uncertainty as Uldrich, an author and futurist, warned a small-business audience in Scottsdale this past week about the accelerating technological changes that already have devastated taxi-cab companies, video-rental stores, some retailers and many other businesses, with more disruption ahead. It was one segment of a conference designed not just to warn businesses about looming threats but to help them identity things they might not be doing well -- tips ranged from honing your marketing message to encouraging a culture of innovation, from acknowledging failures will happen to hiring young adults as "reverse mentors."


The Atlantic Daily: Don't Bank On It

#artificialintelligence

Fake News, Cont'd: During a TV interview last night, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway attempted to defend her boss's travel ban by pointing to "the Bowling Green Massacre"--which never took place. Conway tweeted that she "meant to say'Bowling Green terrorists,'" but her gaffe falls into a larger pattern of the Trump administration's "alternative facts." One true fact about the travel ban is that it revoked 60,000 visas--though a DOJ attorney erroneously said 100,000 earlier today. That error was poorly timed, since there's been a recent increase in fake news aimed at the biases of Trump's detractors as well as his supporters. We talked to Brooke Binkowski of the rumor-debunking site Snopes about the rise of fake news among progressives and what to do about it.


Preventive Leak Detection for High Pressure Gas Transmission Networks

AAAI Conferences

Recent developments in SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems for physical infrastructure, such as high pressure gas pipeline systems and electric grids, have generated enormous amounts of time series data. This data brings great opportunities for advanced knowledge discovery and data mining methods to identify system failures faster and earlier than operation experts. This paper presents our effort in collaboration with a utility company to solve a grand challenge; namely, to use advanced data mining methods to detect leaks on a high pressure gas transmission system. Leak detection models with unsupervised learning tasks were developed analyzing billions of data records to identify leaks of different sizes and impacts, with very low false positive rates. In particular, our solution was able to identify small leaks leading to rupture events. The model also identified small leaks not identifiable with current detection systems. Such high-fidelity early identification enables operation personnel to take preventive measures against possible catastrophic events. We then formulate several generic detection methods with models derived from time series anomaly detection methods. We show that our leak detection models are superior to the SCADA alarm system, a mass balance model and other generic time series anomaly detection models in terms of both detection accuracy and computation time.


Exploring Efficient Strategies for Minesweeper

AAAI Conferences

Minesweeper is a famous single-player computer game, in which the grid of blocks contains some mines and the player is to uncover (probe) all blocks that do not contain any mines. Many heuristic strategies have been prompted to play the game, but the rate of success is not high. In this paper, we explore efficient strategies for the Minesweeper game. First, we show a counterintuitive result that probing the corner blocks could increase the rate of success. Then, we present a series of heuristic strategies, and the combination of them could lead to better results. We also transplant the optimal procedure on the basis of our proposed methods, and it achieves the highest rate of success. Through extensive simulations, a combination of heuristic strategies, "PSEQ", yields a success rate of 81.627(8)%, 78.122(8)%, and 39.616(5)% for beginner, intermediate, and expert levels respectively, outperforming the state-of-the-art strategies. Moreover, the developed quasi-optimal methods, combining the optimal procedure and our heuristic methods, raise the success rate to at least 81.79(2)%, 78.22(3)%, and 40.06(2)% respectively.


Solar Decathlon Competition: Towards a Solar-Powered Smart Home

AAAI Conferences

Alternative energy is becoming a growing source of power in the United States, including wind, hydroelectric and solar. The Solar Decathlon is a competition run by the US Department of Energy every two years. Washington State University (WSU) is one of twenty teams recently selected to compete in the fall 2017 challenge. A central part to WSU's entry is incorporating new and existing smart home technology from the ground up. The smart home can help to optimize energy loads, battery life and general comfort of the user in the home. This paper discusses the high-level goals of the project, hardware selected, build strategy and anticipated approach.


Active Preference Elicitation for Planning

AAAI Conferences

We consider the problem of actively eliciting preferences from a human by a planning system. While prior work in planning have explored the use of domain knowledge and preferences, they assume that the knowledge must be provided before the planner starts the planning process. Our work is in building more collaborative systems where a system can solicit advice as needed. We verify empirically that this approach lead to faster and better solutions, while reducing the burden on the human expert.


Dynamic Goal Recognition Using Windowed Action Sequences

AAAI Conferences

In goal recognition, the basic problem domain consists of the following: Recent advances in robotics and artificial intelligence have brought a variety of assistive robots designed to help humans - a set E of environment fluents; accomplish their goals. However, many have limited autonomy and lack the ability to seamlessly integrate with - a state S that is a value assignment to those fluents; human teams. One capability that can facilitate such humanrobot - a set A of actions that describe potential transitions between teaming is the robot's ability to recognize its teammates' states (with preconditions and effects defined over goals, and react appropriately. This function permits E, and parameterized over a set of environment objects the robot to actively assist the team and avoid performing O); and redundant or counterproductive actions.


Qualitative Reasoning about Cyber Intrusions

AAAI Conferences

In this paper we discuss work performed in an ambitious DARPA funded cyber security effort. The broad approach taken by the project was for the network to be self-aware and to self-adapt in order to dodge attacks. In critical systems, it is not always the best or practical thing, to shut down the network under attack. The paper describes the qualitative trust modeling and diagnosis system that maintains a model of trust for networked resources using a combination of two basic ideas: Conditional trust (based on conditional preference (CP-Nets) and the principle of maximum entropy (PME)). We describe Monte-Carlo simulations of using adaptive security based on our trust model. The results of the simulations show the trade-off, under ideal conditions, between additional resource provisioning and attack mitigation.


ATOL: A Framework for Automated Analysis and Categorization of the Darkweb Ecosystem

AAAI Conferences

We present a framework for automated analysis and categorization of .onion websites in the darkweb to facilitate analyst situational awareness of new content that emerges from this dynamic landscape. Over the last two years, our team has developed a large-scale darkweb crawling infrastructure called OnionCrawler that acquires new onion domains on a daily basis, and crawls and indexes millions of pages from these new and previously known .onion sites. It stores this data into a research repository designed to help better understand Tor’s hidden service ecosystem. The analysis component of our framework is called Automated Tool for Onion Labeling (ATOL), which introduces a two-stage thematic labeling strategy: (1) it learns descriptive and discriminative keywords for different categories, and (2) uses these terms to map onion site content to a set of thematic labels. We also present empirical results of ATOL and our ongoing experimentation with it, as we have gained experience applying it to the entirety of our darkweb repository, now over 70 million indexed pages. We find that ATOL can perform site-level thematic label assignment more accurately than keywordbased schemes developed by domain experts — we expand the analyst-provided keywords using an automatic keyword discovery algorithm, and get 12% gain in accuracy by using a machine learning classification model. We also show how ATOL can discover categories on previously unlabeled onions and discuss applications of ATOL in supporting various analyses and investigations of the darkweb.