The emergence of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created new opportunities for economic text analysis. This study proposes a Wage Sentiment Index (WSI) constructed with Large Language Models (LLMs) to forecast wage dynamics in Japan. The analysis is based on the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS), a monthly survey conducted by the Cabinet Office of Japan that captures real-time economic assessments from workers in industries highly sensitive to business conditions. The WSI extends the framework of the Price Sentiment Index (PSI) used in prior studies, adapting it specifically to wage related sentiment. To ensure scalability and adaptability, a data architecture is also developed that enables integration of additional sources such as newspapers and social media. Experimental results demonstrate that WSI models based on LLMs significantly outperform both baseline approaches and pretrained models. These findings highlight the potential of LLM-driven sentiment indices to enhance the timeliness and effectiveness of economic policy design by governments and central banks.

Large language models (LLMs) display recognizable political leanings, yet they vary significantly in their ability to represent a political orientation consistently. In this paper, we define ideological depth as (i) a model's ability to follow political instructions without failure (steerability), and (ii) the feature richness of its internal political representations measured with sparse autoencoders (SAEs), an unsupervised sparse dictionary learning (SDL) approach. Using Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Gemma-2-9B-IT as candidates, we compare prompt-based and activation-steering interventions and probe political features with publicly available SAEs. We find large, systematic differences: Gemma is more steerable in both directions and activates approximately 7.3x more distinct political features than Llama. Furthermore, causal ablations of a small targeted set of Gemma's political features to create a similar feature-poor setting induce consistent shifts in its behavior, with increased rates of refusals across topics. Together, these results indicate that refusals on benign political instructions or prompts can arise from capability deficits rather than safety guardrails. Ideological depth thus emerges as a measurable property of LLMs, and steerability serves as a window into their latent political architecture.

As tropical cyclones intensify and track forecasts become increasingly uncertain, U.S. ports face heightened supply-chain risk under extreme weather conditions. Port operators need to rapidly synthesize diverse multimodal forecast products, such as probabilistic wind maps, track cones, and official advisories, into clear, actionable guidance as cyclones approach. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) offer a powerful means to integrate these heterogeneous data sources alongside broader contextual knowledge, yet their accuracy and reliability in the specific context of port cyclone preparedness have not been rigorously evaluated. To fill this gap, we introduce CyPortQA, the first multimodal benchmark tailored to port operations under cyclone threat. CyPortQA assembles 2,917 real-world disruption scenarios from 2015 through 2023, spanning 145 U.S. principal ports and 90 named storms. Each scenario fuses multi-source data (i.e., tropical cyclone products, port operational impact records, and port condition bulletins) and is expanded through an automated pipeline into 117,178 structured question-answer pairs. Using this benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse MLLMs, including both open-source and proprietary model. MLLMs demonstrate great potential in situation understanding but still face considerable challenges in reasoning tasks, including potential impact estimation and decision reasoning.

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VIT A is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pre-training and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the U.S. Corn Belt, VIT A achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VIT A outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and larger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use--especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

Recent approaches have shown impressive proficiency in extracting and leveraging parametric knowledge from Large-Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs). In this work, we consider how we can improve the identification and retrieval of videos related to complex real-world events by automatically extracting latent parametric knowledge about those events. We present Q2E: a Query-to-Event decomposition method for zero-shot multilingual text-to-video retrieval, adaptable across datasets, domains, LLMs, or VLMs. Our approach demonstrates that we can enhance the understanding of otherwise overly simplified human queries by decomposing the query using the knowledge embedded in LLMs and VLMs. We additionally show how to apply our approach to both visual and speech-based inputs. To combine this varied multimodal knowledge, we adopt entropy-based fusion scoring for zero-shot fusion. Through evaluations on two diverse datasets and multiple retrieval metrics, we demonstrate that Q2E outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines. Our evaluation also shows that integrating audio information can significantly improve text-to-video retrieval. We have released code and data for future research.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used in urban spatiotemporal forecasting, such as predicting infrastructure problems. In this setting, government officials wish to know in which neighborhoods incidents like potholes or rodent issues occur. The true state of incidents (e.g., street conditions) for each neighborhood is observed via government inspection ratings. However, these ratings are only conducted for a sparse set of neighborhoods and incident types. We also observe the state of incidents via crowdsourced reports, which are more densely observed but may be biased due to heterogeneous reporting behavior. First, for such settings, we propose a multiview, multioutput GNN-based model that uses both unbiased rating data and biased reporting data to predict the true latent state of incidents. Second, we investigate a case study of New York City urban incidents and collect, standardize, and make publicly available a dataset of 9,615,863 crowdsourced reports and 1,041,415 government inspection ratings over 3 years and across 139 types of incidents. Finally, we show on both real and semi-synthetic data that our model can better predict the latent state compared to models that use only reporting data or models that use only rating data, especially when rating data is sparse and reports are predictive of ratings. We also quantify demographic biases in crowdsourced reporting, e.g., higher-income neighborhoods report problems at higher rates. Our analysis showcases a widely applicable approach for latent state prediction using heterogeneous, sparse, and biased data.

Representing the temporal evolution of legal norms is a critical challenge for automated processing. While foundational frameworks exist, they lack a formal pattern for granular, component-level versioning, hindering the deterministic point-in-time reconstruction of legal texts required by reliable AI applications. This paper proposes a structured, temporal modeling pattern grounded in the LRMoo ontology. Our approach models a norm's evolution as a diachronic chain of versioned F1 Works, distinguishing between language-agnostic Temporal Versions (TV)-each being a distinct Work-and their monolingual Language Versions (LV), modeled as F2 Expressions. The legislative amendment process is formalized through event-centric modeling, allowing changes to be traced precisely. Using the Brazilian Constitution as a case study, we demonstrate that our architecture enables the exact reconstruction of any part of a legal text as it existed on a specific date. This provides a verifiable semantic backbone for legal knowledge graphs, offering a deterministic foundation for trustworthy legal AI.

Large language models are typically adapted to downstream tasks through supervised fine-tuning on domain-specific data. While standard fine-tuning focuses on minimizing generation loss to optimize model parameters, we take a deeper step by retaining and leveraging the model's own learning signals, analogous to how human learners reflect on past mistakes to improve future performance. We first introduce the concept of Mistake Log to systematically track the model's learning behavior and recurring errors throughout fine-tuning. Treating the original transformer-based model as the Pilot, we correspondingly design a Copilot model to refine the Pilot's inference performance via logits rectification. We name the overall Pilot-Copilot framework the Transformer Copilot, which introduces (i) a novel Copilot model design, (ii) a joint training paradigm where the Copilot continuously learns from the evolving Mistake Log alongside the Pilot, and (iii) a fused inference paradigm where the Copilot rectifies the Pilot's logits for enhanced generation. We provide both theoretical and empirical analyses on our new learning framework. Experiments on 12 benchmarks spanning commonsense, arithmetic, and recommendation tasks demonstrate that Transformer Copilot consistently improves performance by up to 34.5%, while introducing marginal computational overhead to Pilot models and exhibiting strong scalability and transferability. Our code is released at https://github.com/jiaruzouu/TransformerCopilot.

In general, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are evaluated by the generalization performance measured on unseen data excluded from the training phase. Along with the development of DNNs, the generalization performance converges to the state-of-the-art and it becomes difficult to evaluate DNNs solely based on this metric. The robustness against adversarial attack has been used as an additional metric to evaluate DNNs by measuring their vulnerability. However, few studies have been performed to analyze the adversarial robustness in terms of the geometry in DNNs. In this work, we perform an empirical study to analyze the internal properties of DNNs that affect model robustness under adversarial attacks. In particular, we propose the novel concept of the Populated Region Set (PRS), where training samples are populated more frequently, to represent the internal properties of DNNs in a practical setting. From systematic experiments with the proposed concept, we provide empirical evidence to validate that a low PRS ratio has a strong relationship with the adversarial robustness of DNNs. We also devise PRS regularizer leveraging the characteristics of PRS to improve the adversarial robustness without adversarial training.

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to resilience of power grid. Recent advances in machine learning offer viable frameworks for estimating power outage duration from geospatial and weather data. However, three major challenges are inherent to the task in a real world setting: spatial dependency of the data, spatial heterogeneity of the impact, and moderate event data. We propose a novel approach to estimate the duration of severe weather-induced power outages through Graph Attention Networks (GAT). Our network uses a simple structure from unsupervised pre-training, followed by semi-supervised learning. We use field data from four major hurricanes affecting $501$ counties in eight Southeastern U.S. states. The model exhibits an excellent performance ($>93\%$ accuracy) and outperforms the existing methods XGBoost, Random Forest, GCN and simple GAT by $2\% - 15\%$ in both the overall performance and class-wise accuracy.