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Amortizing Causal Sensitivity Analysis via Prior Data-Fitted Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the dataset, causal query, sensitivity level, or treatment require new computation. Here, we instead present an in-context learning approach. Specifically, we propose an amortized approach to causal sensitivity analysis based on prior-data fitted networks. A key challenge is that the sensitivity bounds are not directly available when sampling training data. To address this, we develop a general prior-data construction that is applicable across the class of generalized treatment sensitivity models. Our construction involves a Lagrangian scalarization of the objective to generate training labels for the bounds through a tradeoff between causal effect min/max-imization and sensitivity model violation, which avoids model-specific analytical derivations. We further show that, under standard convexity and linearity conditions, our objective recovers the full Pareto frontier of solutions. Empirically, we demonstrate our amortized approach across various datasets, causal queries, and sensitivity levels, where our approach achieves a test-time computation that is orders of magnitude faster than per-instance methods. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first foundation model for in-context learning for causal sensitivity analysis.


How the Trump-Xi summit could set superpower relations for many years to come

BBC News

Security around Beijing's historic Tiananmen Square has been heightened for days, with rumours on social media swirling of a special parade or some big, choreographed event. Preparations for this major event have started with a whisper, but China appears ready to put on a show for US President Donald Trump. The visit will include talks, a banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a complex of imperial temples where emperors would pray for a good harvest. And both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be hoping the visit will bear fruit. This summit between the world's two most powerful leaders is set to be one of the most consequential encounters for years.


Robotaxi drives off from airport with passenger's suitcase

FOX News

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The FCC Received Hundreds of Complaints About Bad Bunny's 'Vulgar' Super Bowl Performance

WIRED

The complaints, obtained by WIRED, described Bad Bunny's performance as being overly sexual and protested that the show was in Spanish. Bad Bunny performs during halftime of Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Even before Bad Bunny took to the field, his Super Bowl halftime performance drew controversy, especially from MAGA influencers upset over the Puerto Rican star's comments against Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the fact that he sings in Spanish. Following the performance, which was watched by more than 128 million people, those complaints continued--but they were largely focused on perceived vulgarity in the artist's performance. Following a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request from WIRED, the Federal Communications Commission, which regulates communications including broadcast, released 2,155 complaints the agency received about the Super Bowl, most of which were about the halftime show.


Three things in AI to watch, according to a Nobel-winning economist

MIT Technology Review

Daron Acemoglu is more cautious than most about predictions of a jobs apocalypse. A few months before he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2024, Daron Acemoglu published a paper that earned him few fans in Silicon Valley. Contrary to what Big Tech CEOs had been promising--an overhaul of all white-collar work--Acemoglu estimated that AI would give only a small boost to US productivity and would not obviate the need for human work. It's okay at automating certain tasks, he wrote, but some jobs will be perfectly fine. Two years later, Acemoglu's measured take has not caught on. Chatter about an AI jobs apocalypse pops up everywhere from Senator Bernie Sanders's rallies to conversations I overhear in line at the grocery store.


There's an Unhinged New Video Game About Trump and the Iran War

WIRED

The game, developed by the group of anonymous artists known as Secret Handshake, is available online and in person in Washington, DC. A new video game about President Donald Trump's war in Iran features fights with the pope and New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani . It's impossible to win, and that's the point. The game,, was developed by Secret Handshake, an anonymous group of artists behind a handful of satirical works mocking the Trump administration. The group previously installed a gold statue of Trump and Jeffrey Epstein on the National Mall; it portrayed Trump holding onto Epstein in a pose reminiscent of Jack and Rose from the movie .


AI-powered hacking has exploded into industrial-scale threat, Google says

The Guardian

'There's a misconception that the AI vulnerability race is imminent. The reality is it's already begun,' said John Hultquist at Google's threat intelligence group. 'There's a misconception that the AI vulnerability race is imminent. The reality is it's already begun,' said John Hultquist at Google's threat intelligence group. In just three months, AI-powered hacking has gone from a nascent problem to an industrial-scale threat, according to a report from Google .


Molière Ex Machina: AI used to create 'new work' by beloved French playwright

The Guardian

Léa Sorrentino and Melvin Fauchoux perform in L'Astrologue ou les Faux Présages (The Astrologer, or False Omens), created using AI. Léa Sorrentino and Melvin Fauchoux perform in L'Astrologue ou les Faux Présages (The Astrologer, or False Omens), created using AI. Molière Ex Machina: AI used to create'new work' by beloved French playwright Molière is to the French what Shakespeare is to the English: the last word in historical literature, drama, wit and satire. Now, more than 350 years after his death, the 17th-century dramatist has been revived after scholars at the Sorbonne University in Paris used artificial intelligence to help write an experimental play in his style. L'Astrologue ou les Faux Présages (The Astrologer, or False Omens), a three-act comedy, made its debut at the Royal Opera at the Château de Versailles last week.


The Download: the hantavirus outbreak and Musk v. Altman week 2

MIT Technology Review

Plus: Meta's embrace of AI is making employees miserable. Here's what you need to know about the cruise ship hantavirus outbreak Last week, eight passengers aboard a Dutch-flagged cruise ship contracted a type of hantavirus transmitted by rats. But health experts stress that this situation is nothing like the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. The Andes virus is known to spread between people, and there are no specific antiviral treatments or vaccines. Yet transmission appears to require a specific form of contact that the cruise ship fostered. Here's what you need to know about the outbreak--and why experts believe it can be contained .


Palantir's access to identifiable NHS England patient data is 'dangerous', MPs say

The Guardian

NHS England said it had'strict policies in place for managing access to patient data'. NHS England said it had'strict policies in place for managing access to patient data'. Palantir's access to identifiable NHS England patient data is'dangerous', MPs say Health service has given US tech firm'unlimited access' to certain data to build integrated platform, according to reports Mon 11 May 2026 08.01 EDTLast modified on Mon 11 May 2026 10.06 EDT MPs have warned that an NHS decision to grant Palantir access to identifiable patient information in its plan to use AI to improve the health service is "dangerous" and will fuel public fears that data privacy is not being prioritised. NHS England has allowed staff from the US tech firm and other contractors to access patient data before it has been pseudonymised, despite internal fears of a "risk of loss of public confidence", the Financial Times reported. The health service made the move to allow Palantir to access the data in recent weeks according to the reports, which revealed an internal NHS briefing that said it would allow "unlimited access to non-NHSE staff" to part of the NHS's federated data platform (FDP), which holds identifiable patient information.