Government
Physically Interpretable Representation Learning with Gaussian Mixture Variational AutoEncoder (GM-VAE)
Fan, Tiffany, Cutforth, Murray, D'Elia, Marta, Cortiella, Alexandre, Doostan, Alireza, Darve, Eric
Extracting compact, physically interpretable representations from high-dimensional scientific data is a persistent challenge due to the complex, nonlinear structures inherent in physical systems. We propose a Gaussian Mixture Variational Autoencoder (GM-VAE) framework designed to address this by integrating an Expectation-Maximization (EM)-inspired training scheme with a novel spectral interpretability metric. Unlike conventional VAEs that jointly optimize reconstruction and clustering (often leading to training instability), our method utilizes a block-coordinate descent strategy, alternating between expectation and maximization steps. This approach stabilizes training and naturally aligns latent clusters with distinct physical regimes. To objectively evaluate the learned representations, we introduce a quantitative metric based on graph-Laplacian smoothness, which measures the coherence of physical quantities across the latent manifold. We demonstrate the efficacy of this framework on datasets of increasing complexity: surface reaction ODEs, Navier-Stokes wake flows, and experimental laser-induced combustion Schlieren images. The results show that our GM-VAE yields smooth, physically consistent manifolds and accurate regime clustering, offering a robust data-driven tool for interpreting turbulent and reactive flow systems.
Invited to Develop: Institutional Belonging and the Counterfactual Architecture of Development
This paper examines how institutional belonging shapes long-term development by comparing Spain and Uruguay, two small democracies with similar historical endowments whose trajectories diverged sharply after the 1960s. While Spain integrated into dense European institutional architectures, Uruguay remained embedded within the Latin American governance regime, characterized by weaker coordination and lower institutional coherence. To assess how alternative institutional embeddings could have altered these paths, the study develops a generative counterfactual framework grounded in economic complexity, institutional path dependence, and a Wasserstein GAN trained on data from 1960-2020. The resulting Expected Developmental Shift (EDS) quantifies structural gains or losses from hypothetical re-embedding in different institutional ecosystems. Counterfactual simulations indicate that Spain would have experienced significant developmental decline under a Latin American configuration, while Uruguay would have achieved higher complexity and resilience within a European regime. These findings suggest that development is not solely determined by domestic reforms but emerges from a country's structural position within transnational institutional networks.
Unsupervised Anomaly Detection for Smart IoT Devices: Performance and Resource Comparison
Sami, Md. Sad Abdullah, Abid, Mushfiquzzaman
The rapid expansion of Internet of Things (IoT) deployments across diverse sectors has significantly enhanced operational efficiency, yet concurrently elevated cybersecurity vulnerabilities due to increased exposure to cyber threats. Given the limitations of traditional signature-based Anomaly Detection Systems (ADS) in identifying emerging and zero-day threats, this study investigates the effectiveness of two unsupervised anomaly detection techniques, Isolation Forest (IF) and One-Class Support Vector Machine (OC-SVM), using the TON_IoT thermostat dataset. A comprehensive evaluation was performed based on standard metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score) alongside critical resource utilization metrics such as inference time, model size, and peak RAM usage. Experimental results revealed that IF consistently outperformed OC-SVM, achieving higher detection accuracy, superior precision, and recall, along with a significantly better F1-score. Furthermore, Isolation Forest demonstrated a markedly superior computational footprint, making it more suitable for deployment on resource-constrained IoT edge devices. These findings underscore Isolation Forest's robustness in high-dimensional and imbalanced IoT environments and highlight its practical viability for real-time anomaly detection.
Tacit Bidder-Side Collusion: Artificial Intelligence in Dynamic Auctions
We study whether large language models acting as autonomous bidders can tacitly collude by coordinating when to accept platform posted payouts in repeated Dutch auctions, without any communication. We present a minimal repeated auction model that yields a simple incentive compatibility condition and a closed form threshold for sustainable collusion for subgame-perfect Nash equilibria. In controlled simulations with multiple language models, we observe systematic supra-competitive prices in small auction settings and a return to competitive behavior as the number of bidders in the market increases, consistent with the theoretical model. We also find LLMs use various mechanisms to facilitate tacit coordination, such as focal point acceptance timing versus patient strategies that track the theoretical incentives. The results provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence of bidder side tacit collusion by LLMs and show that market structure levers can be more effective than capability limits for mitigation.
Dynamical Implicit Neural Representations
Park, Yesom, Kan, Kelvin, Flynn, Thomas, Huang, Yi, Yoo, Shinjae, Osher, Stanley, Luo, Xihaier
Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) provide a powerful continuous framework for modeling complex visual and geometric signals, but spectral bias remains a fundamental challenge, limiting their ability to capture high-frequency details. Orthogonal to existing remedy strategies, we introduce Dynamical Implicit Neural Representations (DINR), a new INR modeling framework that treats feature evolution as a continuous-time dynamical system rather than a discrete stack of layers. This dynamical formulation mitigates spectral bias by enabling richer, more adaptive frequency representations through continuous feature evolution. Theoretical analysis based on Rademacher complexity and the Neural Tangent Kernel demonstrates that DINR enhances expressivity and improves training dynamics. Moreover, regularizing the complexity of the underlying dynamics provides a principled way to balance expressivity and generalization. Extensive experiments on image representation, field reconstruction, and data compression confirm that DINR delivers more stable convergence, higher signal fidelity, and stronger generalization than conventional static INRs.
Extracting Disaster Impacts and Impact Related Locations in Social Media Posts Using Large Language Models
Hameed, Sameeah Noreen, Ranathunga, Surangika, Prasanna, Raj, Stock, Kristin, Jones, Christopher B.
Large-scale disasters can often result in catastrophic consequences on people and infrastructure. Situation awareness about such disaster impacts generated by authoritative data from in-situ sensors, remote sensing imagery, and/or geographic data is often limited due to atmospheric opacity, satellite revisits, and time limitations. This often results in geo-temporal information gaps. In contrast, impact-related social media posts can act as "geo-sensors" during a disaster, where people describe specific impacts and locations. However, not all locations mentioned in disaster-related social media posts relate to an impact. Only the impacted locations are critical for directing resources effectively. e.g., "The death toll from a fire which ripped through the Greek coastal town of #Mati stood at 80, with dozens of people unaccounted for as forensic experts tried to identify victims who were burned alive #Greecefires #AthensFires #Athens #Greece." contains impacted location "Mati" and non-impacted locations "Greece" and "Athens". This research uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify all locations, impacts and impacted locations mentioned in disaster-related social media posts. In the process, LLMs are fine-tuned to identify only impacts and impacted locations (as distinct from other, non-impacted locations), including locations mentioned in informal expressions, abbreviations, and short forms. Our fine-tuned model demonstrates efficacy, achieving an F1-score of 0.69 for impact and 0.74 for impacted location extraction, substantially outperforming the pre-trained baseline. These robust results confirm the potential of fine-tuned language models to offer a scalable solution for timely decision-making in resource allocation, situational awareness, and post-disaster recovery planning for responders.
The Rapid Growth of AI Foundation Model Usage in Science
Triลกoviฤ, Ana, Fogelson, Alex, Sivaloganathan, Janakan, Thompson, Neil
We present the first large-scale analysis of AI foundation model usage in science - not just citations or keywords. We find that adoption has grown rapidly, at nearly-exponential rates, with the highest uptake in Linguistics, Computer Science, and Engineering. Vision models are the most used foundation models in science, although language models' share is growing. Open-weight models dominate. As AI builders increase the parameter counts of their models, scientists have followed suit but at a much slower rate: in 2013, the median foundation model built was 7.7x larger than the median one adopted in science, by 2024 this had jumped to 26x. We also present suggestive evidence that scientists' use of these smaller models may be limiting them from getting the full benefits of AI-enabled science, as papers that use larger models appear in higher-impact journals and accrue more citations.
PromptTailor: Multi-turn Intent-Aligned Prompt Synthesis for Lightweight LLMs
Lightweight language models remain attractive for on-device and privacy-sensitive applications, but their responses are highly sensitive to prompt quality. For open-ended generation, non-expert users often lack the knowledge or time to consistently craft high-quality prompts, leading them to rely on prompt optimization tools. However, a key challenge is ensuring the optimized prompts genuinely align with users' original intents and preferences. We introduce PromptTailor, a system for controllable prompt generation for open-ended text that improves model output quality by intent-aligned prompt synthesis. PromptTailor expands minimal user instructions into rich, domain-aware prompts while preserving the user's stated preferences. The system is a quantized Llama3-8B model fine-tuned with a lightweight LoRA adapter on 12,300 prompt-refinement dialogues spanning 41 everyday domains, distilled from three stronger LLMs. The adapter attaches to any Llama3-8B base, enabling edge deployment. In human and LLM-judge evaluations across multiple target models and optimization baselines, PromptTailor yields higher preference rates than chain-of-thought prompting and matches or surpasses state-of-the-art prompt optimization methods while requiring fewer model calls (e.g., 3 vs. 9). These results show that a compact student, guided by powerful teachers, can learn effective prompt-generation strategies that enhance response quality while maintaining alignment with user intent.
German General Personas: A Survey-Derived Persona Prompt Collection for Population-Aligned LLM Studies
Rupprecht, Jens, Frรถhling, Leon, Wagner, Claudia, Strohmaier, Markus
The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for simulating human perspectives via persona prompting is gaining traction in computational social science. However, well-curated, empirically grounded persona collections remain scarce, limiting the accuracy and representativeness of such simulations. Here we introduce the German General Personas (GGP) collection, a comprehensive and representative persona prompt collection built from the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS). The GGP and its persona prompts are designed to be easily plugged into prompts for all types of LLMs and tasks, steering models to generate responses aligned with the underlying German population. We evaluate GGP by prompting various LLMs to simulate survey response distributions across diverse topics, demonstrating that GGP-guided LLMs outperform state-of-the-art classifiers, particularly under data scarcity. Furthermore, we analyze how the representativity and attribute selection within persona prompts affect alignment with population responses. Our findings suggest that GGP provides a potentially valuable resource for research on LLM-based social simulations that enables more systematic explorations of population-aligned persona prompting in NLP and social science research.
PeerCoPilot: A Language Model-Powered Assistant for Behavioral Health Organizations
Mo, Gao, Raman, Naveen, Chai, Megan, Peng, Cindy, Pagdon, Shannon, Jones, Nev, Shen, Hong, Swarbrick, Peggy, Fang, Fei
Behavioral health conditions, which include mental health and substance use disorders, are the leading disease burden in the United States. Peer-run behavioral health organizations (PROs) critically assist individuals facing these conditions by combining mental health services with assistance for needs such as income, employment, and housing. However, limited funds and staffing make it difficult for PROs to address all service user needs. To assist peer providers at PROs with their day-to-day tasks, we introduce PeerCoPilot, a large language model (LLM)-powered assistant that helps peer providers create wellness plans, construct step-by-step goals, and locate organizational resources to support these goals. PeerCoPilot ensures information reliability through a retrieval-augmented generation pipeline backed by a large database of over 1,300 vetted resources. We conducted human evaluations with 15 peer providers and 6 service users and found that over 90% of users supported using PeerCoPilot. Moreover, we demonstrated that PeerCoPilot provides more reliable and specific information than a baseline LLM. PeerCoPilot is now used by a group of 5-10 peer providers at CSPNJ, a large behavioral health organization serving over 10,000 service users, and we are actively expanding PeerCoPilot's use.