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Loss Rate Forecasting Framework Based on Macroeconomic Changes: Application to US Credit Card Industry

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A major part of the balance sheets of the largest US banks consists of credit card portfolios. Hence, managing the charge-off rates is a vital task for the profitability of the credit card industry. Different macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' behavior in paying down their debts. In this paper, we propose an expert system for loss forecasting in the credit card industry using macroeconomic indicators. We select the indicators based on a thorough review of the literature and experts' opinions covering all aspects of the economy, consumer, business, and government sectors. The state of the art machine learning models are used to develop the proposed expert system framework. We develop two versions of the forecasting expert system, which utilize different approaches to select between the lags added to each indicator. Among 19 macroeconomic indicators that were used as the input, six were used in the model with optimal lags, and seven indicators were selected by the model using all lags. The features that were selected by each of these models covered all three sectors of the economy. Using the charge-off data for the top 100 US banks ranked by assets from the first quarter of 1985 to the second quarter of 2019, we achieve mean squared error values of 1.15E-03 and 1.04E-03 using the model with optimal lags and the model with all lags, respectively. The proposed expert system gives a holistic view of the economy to the practitioners in the credit card industry and helps them to see the impact of different macroeconomic conditions on their future loss.


(Summary) Demystifying artificial intelligence in government

#artificialintelligence

Artificial intelligence already helps run government, with cognitive applications doing everything from reducing backlogs and cutting costs to handling tasks we can't easily do on our own, such as predicting fraudulent transactions and identifying criminal suspects via facial recognition. Indeed, while we expect AI-based technology in the years ahead to fundamentally transform how public-sector employees get work done--eliminating some jobs, redesigning countless others, and even creating entirely new professions1--it's already changing the nature of many jobs and revolutionizing facets of government operations. Agencies today face new choices about whether some work should be fully automated, divided among people and machines, or performed by people but enhanced by machines. Our latest report, AI-augmented government, conservatively estimates that simply automating tasks that computers already routinely do could free up 96.7 million federal government working hours annually, potentially saving $3.3 billion. At the high end, we estimate that AI technology could free up as many as 1.2 billion working hours every year, saving $41.1 billion.


PimEyes facial recognition website 'could be used by stalkers'

BBC News - Technology

A free facial recognition tool that allows people to find pictures of themselves or others from around the internet has drawn criticism from privacy campaigners. PimEyes describes itself as a privacy tool to help prevent misuse of images. But Big Brother Watch said it could "enable state surveillance, commercial monitoring and even stalking on a scale previously unimaginable". It comes as Amazon decides to pause its use of facial recognition for a year. Polish website PimEyes was set up in 2017 as a hobby project, and commercialised last year.


Trump aims to sidestep another arms pact to sell more U.S. drones

The Japan Times

Washington โ€“ The Trump administration plans to reinterpret a Cold War-era arms agreement between 34 nations with the goal of allowing U.S. defense contractors to sell more American-made drones to a wide array of nations, three defense industry executives and a U.S. official told Reuters. The policy change, which has not been previously reported, could open up sales of armed U.S. drones to less stable governments such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates that in the past have been forbidden from buying them under the 33-year-old Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), said the U.S. official, a former U.S. official and one of the executives. It could also undermine longstanding MTCR compliance from countries such as Russia, said the U.S. official, who has direct knowledge of the policy shift. Reinterpreting the MTCR is part of a broader Trump administration effort to sell more weapons overseas. It has overhauled a broad range of arms export regulations and removed the U.S. from international arms treaties including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty.


WHITEHALL ANALYTICA โ€“ THE AI SUPERSTATE: Part 1 โ€“ The Corporate Money Behind Health Surveillance โ€“ Byline Times

#artificialintelligence

The COVID-19 public health crisis is enriching a murky nexus of technology surveillance firms linked to senior Government officials โ€“ at the expense of people's lives. The financial adventures of a former MI5 spymaster and the medical fantasies of Boris Johnson's top advisor point toward an unnerving endgame: an artificially intelligent (AI) corporate super-state, with a special focus on NHS genetic research inspired by eugenics. The tale begins with Britain's security services โ€“ and ends with Dominic Cummings. It uncovers the extent to which democracy and public health are now under threat from a series of Government failures rooted in a bankrupt ideology, influenced by the modern relics of scientific racism. On Sunday 12 April, the Government announced that the NHS would be launching a new COVID-19 contact tracing app.


Amazon Won't Let Police Use Its Facial-Recognition Tech for One Year

#artificialintelligence

Amazon announced on Wednesday it was implementing a "one-year moratorium" on police use of Rekognition, its facial-recognition technology. Lawmakers and civil liberties groups have expressed growing alarm over the tool's potential for misuse by law enforcement for years, particularly against communities of color. Now, weeks into worldwide protests against police brutality and racism sparked by the killing of George Floyd, Amazon appears to have acknowledged these concerns. In a short blog post about the decision, the tech giant said it hopes the pause "might give Congress enough time to implement appropriate rules" for the use of facial-recognition technology, which is largely unregulated in the US. Critics have said that the tech could easily be abused by the government, and they cite studies showing tools like Rekognition misidentify people of color at higher rates than white people.


How Artificial Intelligence is escalating in cybersecurity

#artificialintelligence

When progressive technologies start to deliver on their potential, we can expect a wholesale shift of vendors looking to get on the bandwagon. First the technology enthusiasts and early adopters will come to validate the promises of the newest technology and hone its potential into something viable for the mainstream. Once that is done, the early majority, late adopters and finally, even the skeptics jump in as well. Finally the time is here for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AIML) in cyber. There is a widespread move out of the early adopter stage and into the early majority stage of adoption.


AI is Driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Arabian Reseller

#artificialintelligence

In your experience, is AI creating a better world around us? AI is certainly creating a more seamless world around us by adding a new dimension to our daily lives. The UAE Strategy for Artificial Intelligence launched in 2017 has encouraged wider and coordinated adoption of AI technologies. The National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2031 also aims to fulfill key objectives, including employing artificial intelligence in vital areas such as education, government services, and community wellbeing, to improve the quality of life of citizens. We are already seeing a positive impact as a result of these initiatives in the customer service industry, which is increasingly turning to AI to manage its growing needs. Mobile apps are now designed to enable seamless government service delivery and we are seeing chatbots used across retail, banking, and government services.


The two-year fight to stop Amazon from selling face recognition to the police

MIT Technology Review

But on Wednesday, June 10, Amazon shocked civil rights activists and researchers when it announced that it would place a one-year moratorium on police use of Rekognition. The move followed IBM's decision to discontinue its general-purpose face recognition system. The next day, Microsoft announced that it would stop selling its system to police departments until federal law regulates the technology. While Amazon made the smallest concession of the three companies, it is also the largest provider of the technology to law enforcement. The decision is the culmination of two years of research and external pressure to demonstrate Rekognition's technical flaws and its potential for abuse. "It's incredible that Amazon's actually responding within this current conversation around racism," said Deborah Raji, an AI accountability researcher who coauthored a foundational study on the racial biases and inaccuracies built into the company's technology.


Indian military tests eye-tracking tech to help pilots control planes

New Scientist

Pilots in India are testing aircraft display systems that work by tracking and responding to eye movements and could let military pilots keep their hands on the plane's controls more often while flying. Modern aircraft have electronic display systems that show information such as the plane's fuel level, imaging system or geographical position. Pilots can click the screen to the relevant page of information as needed, but this requires taking one hand either off the plane's throttle or control stick.