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The Future of Artificial Intelligence

#artificialintelligence

"[AI] is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind. AI oracle and venture capitalist Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, 2018 In a nondescript building close to downtown Chicago, Marc Gyongyosi and the small but growing crew of IFM/Onetrack.AI have one rule that rules them all: think simple. The words are written in simple font on a simple sheet of paper that's stuck to a rear upstairs wall of their industrial two-story workspace. Sitting at his cluttered desk, located near an oft-used ping-pong table and prototypes of drones from his college days suspended overhead, Gyongyosi punches some keys on a laptop to pull up grainy video footage of a forklift driver operating his vehicle in a warehouse. It was captured from overhead courtesy of a Onetrack.AI "forklift vision system." Employing machine learning and computer vision for detection and classification of various "safety events," the shoebox-sized device doesn't see all, but it sees plenty. Like which way the driver is looking as he operates the vehicle, how fast he's driving, where he's driving, locations of the people around him and how other forklift operators are maneuvering their vehicles. IFM's software automatically detects safety violations (for example, cell phone use) and notifies warehouse managers so they can take immediate action. The main goals are to prevent accidents and increase efficiency. The mere knowledge that one of IFM's devices is watching, Gyongyosi claims, has had "a huge effect." "If you think about a camera, it really is the richest sensor available to us today at a very interesting price point," he says. "Because of smartphones, camera and image sensors have become incredibly inexpensive, yet we capture a lot of information.


Report prepared by the Montreal AI Ethics Institute (MAIEI) for Publication Norms for Responsible AI by Partnership on AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The history of science and technology shows that seemingly innocuous developments in scientific theories and research have enabled real-world applications with significant negative consequences for humanity. In order to ensure that the science and technology of AI is developed in a humane manner, we must develop research publication norms that are informed by our growing understanding of AI's potential threats and use cases. Unfortunately, it's difficult to create a set of publication norms for responsible AI because the field of AI is currently fragmented in terms of how this technology is researched, developed, funded, etc. To examine this challenge and find solutions, the Montreal AI Ethics Institute (MAIEI) collaborated with the Partnership on AI in May 2020 to host two public consultation meetups. These meetups examined potential publication norms for responsible AI, with the goal of creating a clear set of recommendations and ways forward for publishers. In its submission, MAIEI provides six initial recommendations, these include: 1) create tools to navigate publication decisions, 2) offer a page number extension, 3) develop a network of peers, 4) require broad impact statements, 5) require the publication of expected results, and 6) revamp the peer-review process. After considering potential concerns regarding these recommendations, including constraining innovation and creating a "black market" for AI research, MAIEI outlines three ways forward for publishers, these include: 1) state clearly and consistently the need for established norms, 2) coordinate and build trust as a community, and 3) change the approach.


A Visual Analytics Framework for Explaining and Diagnosing Transfer Learning Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many statistical learning models hold an assumption that the training data and the future unlabeled data are drawn from the same distribution. However, this assumption is difficult to fulfill in real-world scenarios and creates barriers in reusing existing labels from similar application domains. Transfer Learning is intended to relax this assumption by modeling relationships between domains, and is often applied in deep learning applications to reduce the demand for labeled data and training time. Despite recent advances in exploring deep learning models with visual analytics tools, little work has explored the issue of explaining and diagnosing the knowledge transfer process between deep learning models. In this paper, we present a visual analytics framework for the multi-level exploration of the transfer learning processes when training deep neural networks. Our framework establishes a multi-aspect design to explain how the learned knowledge from the existing model is transferred into the new learning task when training deep neural networks. Based on a comprehensive requirement and task analysis, we employ descriptive visualization with performance measures and detailed inspections of model behaviors from the statistical, instance, feature, and model structure levels. We demonstrate our framework through two case studies on image classification by fine-tuning AlexNets to illustrate how analysts can utilize our framework.


Advancing the Scientific Frontier with Increasingly Autonomous Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A close partnership between people and partially autonomous machines has enabled decades of space exploration. But to further expand our horizons, our systems must become more capable. Increasing the nature and degree of autonomy - allowing our systems to make and act on their own decisions as directed by mission teams - enables new science capabilities and enhances science return. The 2011 Planetary Science Decadal Survey (PSDS) and on-going pre-Decadal mission studies have identified increased autonomy as a core technology required for future missions. However, even as scientific discovery has necessitated the development of autonomous systems and past flight demonstrations have been successful, institutional barriers have limited its maturation and infusion on existing planetary missions. Consequently, the authors and endorsers of this paper recommend that new programmatic pathways be developed to infuse autonomy, infrastructure for support autonomous systems be invested in, new practices be adopted, and the cost-saving value of autonomy for operations be studied.


Domain Knowledge Empowered Structured Neural Net for End-to-End Event Temporal Relation Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extracting event temporal relations is a critical task for information extraction and plays an important role in natural language understanding. Prior systems leverage deep learning and pre-trained language models to improve the performance of the task. However, these systems often suffer from two short-comings: 1) when performing maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference based on neural models, previous systems only used structured knowledge that are assumed to be absolutely correct, i.e., hard constraints; 2) biased predictions on dominant temporal relations when training with a limited amount of data. To address these issues, we propose a framework that enhances deep neural network with distributional constraints constructed by probabilistic domain knowledge. We solve the constrained inference problem via Lagrangian Relaxation and apply it on end-to-end event temporal relation extraction tasks. Experimental results show our framework is able to improve the baseline neural network models with strong statistical significance on two widely used datasets in news and clinical domains.


Diagnosing Concept Drift with Visual Analytics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Concept drift is a phenomenon in which the distribution of a data stream changes over time in unforeseen ways, causing prediction models built on historical data to become inaccurate. While a variety of automated methods have been developed to identify when concept drift occurs, there is limited support for analysts who need to understand and correct their models when drift is detected. In this paper, we present a visual analytics method, DriftVis, to support model builders and analysts in the identification and correction of concept drift in streaming data. DriftVis combines a distribution-based drift detection method with a streaming scatterplot to support the analysis of drift caused by the distribution changes of data streams and to explore the impact of these changes on the model's accuracy. A quantitative experiment and two case studies on weather prediction and text classification have been conducted to demonstrate our proposed tool and illustrate how visual analytics can be used to support the detection, examination, and correction of concept drift.


Meta-AAD: Active Anomaly Detection with Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

High false-positive rate is a long-standing challenge for anomaly detection algorithms, especially in high-stake applications. To identify the true anomalies, in practice, analysts or domain experts will be employed to investigate the top instances one by one in a ranked list of anomalies identified by an anomaly detection system. This verification procedure generates informative labels that can be leveraged to re-rank the anomalies so as to help the analyst to discover more true anomalies given a time budget. Some re-ranking strategies have been proposed to approximate the above sequential decision process. Specifically, existing strategies have been focused on making the top instances more likely to be anomalous based on the feedback. Then they greedily select the top-1 instance for query. However, these greedy strategies could be sub-optimal since some low-ranked instances could be more helpful in the long-term. In this work, we propose Active Anomaly Detection with Meta-Policy (Meta-AAD), a novel framework that learns a meta-policy for query selection. Specifically, Meta-AAD leverages deep reinforcement learning to train the meta-policy to select the most proper instance to explicitly optimize the number of discovered anomalies throughout the querying process. Meta-AAD is easy to deploy since a trained meta-policy can be directly applied to any new datasets without further tuning. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmark datasets demonstrate that Meta-AAD significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art re-ranking strategies and the unsupervised baseline. The empirical analysis shows that the trained meta-policy is transferable and inherently achieves a balance between long-term and short-term rewards.


Training neural networks under physical constraints using a stochastic augmented Lagrangian approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the physics-constrained training of an encoder-decoder neural network for approximating the Fokker-Planck-Landau collision operator in the 5-dimensional kinetic fusion simulation in XGC. To train this network, we propose a stochastic augmented Lagrangian approach that utilizes pyTorch's native stochastic gradient descent method to solve the inner unconstrained minimization subproblem, paired with a heuristic update for the penalty factor and Lagrange multipliers in the outer augmented Lagrangian loop. Our training results for a single ion species case, with self-collisions and collision against electrons, show that the proposed stochastic augmented Lagrangian approach can achieve higher model prediction accuracy than training with a fixed penalty method for our application problem, with the accuracy high enough for practical applications in kinetic simulations.


How Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Will Make ISR Faster

#artificialintelligence

The Multi-Spectral Targeting System is a turreted electro-optical and infrared sensor used in maritime and overland intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Raytheon Intelligence and Space is integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning across ISR capabilities to help warfighters make decisions faster with reduced workload. If a swarm of heavily armed fast boats barreled full speed at an aircraft carrier, the crew would have very little time to react. But if that crew had artificial intelligence and machine learning at its disposal, that blitz of boats probably wouldn't pose nearly as much of a problem. Raytheon Intelligence & Space, one of four businesses that form Raytheon Technologies, is using artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities of the U.S. and allied armed forces.


Deep learning can beat other forecast methods โ€“ Bank of Korea research - Central Banking

#artificialintelligence

Deep learning โ€“ an advanced form of artificial intelligence โ€“ can be more accurate in predicting outcomes, compared with conventional econometric approaches, according to research from Bank of Korea (BoK). The research paper tested predictions of monthly exports from Korea and daily Korean won-US dollar exchange rates. It found that deep learning approaches produced better results even with the sorts of non-granular data sets that are normally used for conventional econometric models.