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Sharp Bias-variance Tradeoffs of Hard Parameter Sharing in High-dimensional Linear Regression
Zhang, Hongyang R., Yang, Fan, Wu, Sen, Su, Weijie J., Ré, Christopher
Hard parameter sharing for multi-task learning is widely used in empirical research despite the fact that its generalization properties have not been well established in many cases. This paper studies its generalization properties in a fundamental setting: How does hard parameter sharing work given multiple linear regression tasks? We develop new techniques and establish a number of new results in the high-dimensional setting, where the sample size and feature dimension increase at a fixed ratio. First, we show a sharp bias-variance decomposition of hard parameter sharing, given multiple tasks with the same features. Second, we characterize the asymptotic bias-variance limit for two tasks, even when they have arbitrarily different sample size ratios and covariate shifts. We also demonstrate that these limiting estimates for the empirical loss are incredibly accurate in moderate dimensions. Finally, we explain an intriguing phenomenon where increasing one task's sample size helps another task initially by reducing variance but hurts eventually due to increasing bias. This suggests progressively adding data for optimizing hard parameter sharing, and we validate its efficiency in text classification tasks.
Model updating after interventions paradoxically introduces bias
Liley, James, Emerson, Samuel R, Mateen, Bilal A, Vallejos, Catalina A, Aslett, Louis J M, Vollmer, Sebastian J
Machine learning is increasingly being used to generate prediction models for use in a number of real-world settings, from credit risk assessment to clinical decision support. Recent discussions have highlighted potential problems in the updating of a predictive score for a binary outcome when an existing predictive score forms part of the standard workflow, driving interventions. In this setting, the existing score induces an additional causative pathway which leads to miscalibration when the original score is replaced. We propose a general causal framework to describe and address this problem, and demonstrate an equivalent formulation as a partially observed Markov decision process. We use this model to demonstrate the impact of such `naive updating' when performed repeatedly. Namely, we show that successive predictive scores may converge to a point where they predict their own effect, or may eventually oscillate between two values, and we argue that neither outcome is desirable. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even if model-fitting procedures improve, actual performance may worsen. We complement these findings with a discussion of several potential routes to overcome these problems.
Landscape of R packages for eXplainable Artificial Intelligence
Maksymiuk, Szymon, Gosiewska, Alicja, Biecek, Przemyslaw
The growing availability of data and computing power fuels the development of predictive models. In order to ensure the safe and effective functioning of such models, we need methods for exploration, debugging, and validation. New methods and tools for this purpose are being developed within the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) subdomain of machine learning. In this work (1) we present the taxonomy of methods for model explanations, (2) we identify and compare 27 packages available in R to perform XAI analysis, (3) we present an example of an application of particular packages, (4) we acknowledge recent trends in XAI. The article is primarily devoted to the tools available in R, but since it is easy to integrate the Python code, we will also show examples for the most popular libraries from Python.
Sentimental LIAR: Extended Corpus and Deep Learning Models for Fake Claim Classification
Upadhayay, Bibek, Behzadan, Vahid
The rampant integration of social media in our every day lives and culture has given rise to fast and easier access to the flow of information than ever in human history. However, the inherently unsupervised nature of social media platforms has also made it easier to spread false information and fake news. Furthermore, the high volume and velocity of information flow in such platforms make manual supervision and control of information propagation infeasible. This paper aims to address this issue by proposing a novel deep learning approach for automated detection of false short-text claims on social media. We first introduce Sentimental LIAR, which extends the LIAR dataset of short claims by adding features based on sentiment and emotion analysis of claims. Furthermore, we propose a novel deep learning architecture based on the BERT-Base language model for classification of claims as genuine or fake. Our results demonstrate that the proposed architecture trained on Sentimental LIAR can achieve an accuracy of 70%, which is an improvement of ~30% over previously reported results for the LIAR benchmark.
Smoothed Geometry for Robust Attribution
Wang, Zifan, Wang, Haofan, Ramkumar, Shakul, Fredrikson, Matt, Mardziel, Piotr, Datta, Anupam
Feature attributions are a popular tool for explaining the behavior of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), but have recently been shown to be vulnerable to attacks that produce divergent explanations for nearby inputs. This lack of robustness is especially problematic in high-stakes applications where adversarially-manipulated explanations could impair safety and trustworthiness. Building on a geometric understanding of these attacks presented in recent work, we identify Lipschitz continuity conditions on models' gradients that lead to robust gradient-based attributions, and observe that the smoothness of the model's decision surface is related to the transferability of attacks across multiple attribution methods. To mitigate these attacks in practice, we propose an inexpensive regularization method that promotes these conditions in DNNs, as well as a stochastic smoothing technique that does not require retraining. Our experiments on a range of image models demonstrate that both of these mitigations consistently improve attribution robustness, and confirm the role that smooth geometry plays in these attacks on real, large-scale models.
Language Models are Open Knowledge Graphs
Wang, Chenguang, Liu, Xiao, Song, Dawn
This paper shows how to construct knowledge graphs (KGs) from pre-trained language models (e.g., BERT, GPT-2/3), without human supervision. Popular KGs (e.g, Wikidata, NELL) are built in either a supervised or semi-supervised manner, requiring humans to create knowledge. Recent deep language models automatically acquire knowledge from large-scale corpora via pre-training. The stored knowledge has enabled the language models to improve downstream NLP tasks, e.g., answering questions, and writing code and articles. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised method to cast the knowledge contained within language models into KGs. We show that KGs are constructed with a single forward pass of the pre-trained language models (without fine-tuning) over the corpora. We demonstrate the quality of the constructed KGs by comparing to two KGs (Wikidata, TAC KBP) created by humans. Our KGs also provide open factual knowledge that is new in the existing KGs. Our code and KGs will be made publicly available.
Rewriting Meaningful Sentences via Conditional BERT Sampling and an application on fooling text classifiers
Xu, Lei, Ramirez, Ivan, Veeramachaneni, Kalyan
Most adversarial attack methods that are designed to deceive a text classifier change the text classifier's prediction by modifying a few words or characters. Few try to attack classifiers by rewriting a whole sentence, due to the difficulties inherent in sentence-level rephrasing as well as the problem of setting the criteria for legitimate rewriting. In this paper, we explore the problem of creating adversarial examples with sentence-level rewriting. We design a new sampling method, named ParaphraseSampler, to efficiently rewrite the original sentence in multiple ways. Then we propose a new criteria for modification, called a sentence-level threaten model. This criteria allows for both word- and sentence-level changes, and can be adjusted independently in two dimensions: semantic similarity and grammatical quality. Experimental results show that many of these rewritten sentences are misclassified by the classifier. On all 6 datasets, our ParaphraseSampler achieves a better attack success rate than our baseline.
Planning with Submodular Objective Functions
Wang, Ruosong, Zhang, Hanrui, Chaplot, Devendra Singh, Garagić, Denis, Salakhutdinov, Ruslan
Modern reinforcement learning and planning algorithms have achieved tremendous successes on various tasks [Mnih et al., 2015, Silver et al., 2017]. However, most of these algorithms work in the standard Markov decision process (MDP) framework where the goal is to maximize the cumulative reward and thus it can be difficult to apply them to various practical sequential decision-making problems. In this paper, we study planning in generalized MDPs, where instead of maximizing the cumulative reward, the goal is to maximize the objective value induced by a submodular function. To motivate our approach, let us consider the following scenario: a company manufactures cars, and as part of its customer service, continuously monitors the status of all cars produced by the company. Each car is equipped with a number of sensors, each of which constantly produces noisy measurements of some attribute of the car, e.g., speed, location, temperature, etc. Due to bandwidth constraints, at any moment, each car may choose to transmit data generated by a single sensor to the company. The goal is to combine the statistics collected over a fixed period of time, presumably from multiple sensors, to gather as much information about the car as possible. Perhaps one seemingly natural strategy is to transmit only data generated by the most "informative" sensor. However, as the output of a sensor remains the same between two samples, it is pointless to transmit the same data multiple times. One may alternatively try to order sensors by their "informativity" and always choose the most informative sensor that has not yet transmitted data since the last sample was generated.
Can We Trust the Presidential-Election Polls?
On October 18, 2016, the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a ninety-one-per-cent chance of beating Donald Trump. Five days later, ABC News released a tracking poll showing her ahead of Trump by twelve points. Buoyed by the polls, Democrats--especially Democratic women--approached November 8th with a joyful sense of inevitability. The collective disbelief when Clinton lost was tinged with confusion: How could the pollsters have been so wrong? Now, with Joe Biden leading Trump by double digits in the lead-up to Election Day, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, the question has to be asked: Are voters hoping for a Biden victory about to fall in the same trap?
10 Ways Machine Learning Practitioners Can Build Fairer Systems
My opinions are my own. An introduction to the harm that ML systems cause and to the power imbalance that exists between ML system developers and ML system participants …and 10 concrete ways for machine learning practitioners to help build fairer ML systems. Image description: Photo of Black Lives Matter protesters in Washington, D.C. -- 2 signs say "Black Lives Matter" and "White Silence is Violence." Machine learning systems are increasingly used as tools of oppression. All too often, they're used in high-stakes processes without participants' consent and with no reasonable opportunity for participants to contest the system's decisions -- like when risk assessment systems are used by child welfare services to identify at-risk children; when a machine learning (or "ML") model decides who sees which online ads for employment, housing, or credit opportunities; or when facial recognition systems are used to surveil neighborhoods where Black and Brown people live. In reality though, machine learning systems reflect the beliefs and biases of those who design and develop them.