Government
The United Nations needs to start regulating the 'Wild West' of artificial intelligence
The European Commission recently published a proposal for a regulation on artificial intelligence (AI). This is the first document of its kind to attempt to tame the multi-tentacled beast that is artificial intelligence. "The sun is starting to set on the Wild West days of artificial intelligence," writes Jeremy Kahn. He may have a point. When this regulation comes into effect, it will change the way that we conduct AI research and development.
Defending Democracy: Using Deep Learning to Identify and Prevent Misinformation
Trivedi, Anusua, Suhm, Alyssa, Mahankal, Prathamesh, Mukuntharaj, Subhiksha, Parab, Meghana D., Mohan, Malvika, Berger, Meredith, Sethumadhavan, Arathi, Jaiman, Ashish, Dodhia, Rahul
The rise in online misinformation in recent years threatens democracies by distorting authentic public discourse and causing confusion, fear, and even, in extreme cases, violence. There is a need to understand the spread of false content through online networks for developing interventions that disrupt misinformation before it achieves virality. Using a Deep Bidirectional Transformer for Language Understanding (BERT) and propagation graphs, this study classifies and visualizes the spread of misinformation on a social media network using publicly available Twitter data. The results confirm prior research around user clusters and the virality of false content while improving the precision of deep learning models for misinformation detection. The study further demonstrates the suitability of BERT for providing a scalable model for false information detection, which can contribute to the development of more timely and accurate interventions to slow the spread of misinformation in online environments.
Attack Prediction using Hidden Markov Model
Dass, Shuvalaxmi, Datta, Prerit, Namin, Akbar Siami
It is important to predict any adversarial attacks and their types to enable effective defense systems. Often it is hard to label such activities as malicious ones without adequate analytical reasoning. We propose the use of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to predict the family of related attacks. Our proposed model is based on the observations often agglomerated in the form of log files and from the target or the victim's perspective. We have built an HMM-based prediction model and implemented our proposed approach using Viterbi algorithm, which generates a sequence of states corresponding to stages of a particular attack. As a proof of concept and also to demonstrate the performance of the model, we have conducted a case study on predicting a family of attacks called Action Spoofing.
Toward Explainable Users: Using NLP to Enable AI to Understand Users' Perceptions of Cyber Attacks
Abri, Faranak, Gutierrez, Luis Felipe, Kulkarni, Chaitra T., Namin, Akbar Siami, Jones, Keith S.
To understand how end-users conceptualize consequences of cyber security attacks, we performed a card sorting study, a well-known technique in Cognitive Sciences, where participants were free to group the given consequences of chosen cyber attacks into as many categories as they wished using rationales they see fit. The results of the open card sorting study showed a large amount of inter-participant variation making the research team wonder how the consequences of security attacks were comprehended by the participants. As an exploration of whether it is possible to explain user's mental model and behavior through Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, the research team compared the card sorting data with the outputs of a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques with the goal of understanding how participants perceived and interpreted the consequences of cyber attacks written in natural languages. The results of the NLP-based exploration methods revealed an interesting observation implying that participants had mostly employed checking individual keywords in each sentence to group cyber attack consequences together and less considered the semantics behind the description of consequences of cyber attacks. The results reported in this paper are seemingly useful and important for cyber attacks comprehension from user's perspectives. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first introducing the use of AI techniques in explaining and modeling users' behavior and their perceptions about a context. The novel idea introduced here is about explaining users using AI.
The Smoothed Satisfaction of Voting Axioms
We initiate the work towards a comprehensive picture of the smoothed satisfaction of voting axioms, to provide a finer and more realistic foundation for comparing voting rules. We adopt the smoothed social choice framework, where an adversary chooses arbitrarily correlated "ground truth" preferences for the agents, on top of which random noises are added. We focus on characterizing the smoothed satisfaction of two well-studied voting axioms: Condorcet criterion and participation. We prove that for any fixed number of alternatives, when the number of voters $n$ is sufficiently large, the smoothed satisfaction of the Condorcet criterion under a wide range of voting rules is $1$, $1-\exp(-\Theta(n))$, $\Theta(n^{-0.5})$, $ \exp(-\Theta(n))$, or being $\Theta(1)$ and $1-\Theta(1)$ at the same time; and the smoothed satisfaction of participation is $1-\Theta(n^{-0.5})$. Our results address open questions by Berg and Lepelley in 1994 for these rules, and also confirm the following high-level message: the Condorcet criterion is a bigger concern than participation under realistic models.
Understanding peacefulness through the world news
Voukelatou, Vasiliki, Miliou, Ioanna, Giannotti, Fosca, Pappalardo, Luca
Peacefulness is a principal dimension of well-being for all humankind and is the way out of inequity and every single form of violence. Thus, its measurement has lately drawn the attention of researchers and policy-makers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. In the current study, we exploit information extracted from Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) digital news database, to capture peacefulness through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use the SHAP methodology to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions overall, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by Social Good researchers, policy-makers, and peace-builders, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximize the societal benefits and minimize the risks to peacefulness.
The Contestation of Tech Ethics: A Sociotechnical Approach to Ethics and Technology in Action
Recent controversies related to topics such as fake news, privacy, and algorithmic bias have prompted increased public scrutiny of digital technologies and soul-searching among many of the people associated with their development. In response, the tech industry, academia, civil society, and governments have rapidly increased their attention to "ethics" in the design and use of digital technologies ("tech ethics"). Yet almost as quickly as ethics discourse has proliferated across the world of digital technologies, the limitations of these approaches have also become apparent: tech ethics is vague and toothless, is subsumed into corporate logics and incentives, and has a myopic focus on individual engineers and technology design rather than on the structures and cultures of technology production. As a result of these limitations, many have grown skeptical of tech ethics and its proponents, charging them with "ethics-washing": promoting ethics research and discourse to defuse criticism and government regulation without committing to ethical behavior. By looking at how ethics has been taken up in both science and business in superficial and depoliticizing ways, I recast tech ethics as a terrain of contestation where the central fault line is not whether it is desirable to be ethical, but what "ethics" entails and who gets to define it. This framing highlights the significant limits of current approaches to tech ethics and the importance of studying the formulation and real-world effects of tech ethics. In order to identify and develop more rigorous strategies for reforming digital technologies and the social relations that they mediate, I describe a sociotechnical approach to tech ethics, one that reflexively applies many of tech ethics' own lessons regarding digital technologies to tech ethics itself.
Gaussian Processes on Hypergraphs
Pinder, Thomas, Turnbull, Kathryn, Nemeth, Christopher, Leslie, David
We derive a Matern Gaussian process (GP) on the vertices of a hypergraph. This enables estimation of regression models of observed or latent values associated with the vertices, in which the correlation and uncertainty estimates are informed by the hypergraph structure. We further present a framework for embedding the vertices of a hypergraph into a latent space using the hypergraph GP. Finally, we provide a scheme for identifying a small number of representative inducing vertices that enables scalable inference through sparse GPs. We demonstrate the utility of our framework on three challenging real-world problems that concern multi-class classification for the political party affiliation of legislators on the basis of voting behaviour, probabilistic matrix factorisation of movie reviews, and embedding a hypergraph of animals into a low-dimensional latent space.
Graph Intervention Networks for Causal Effect Estimation
Kaddour, Jean, Liu, Qi, Zhu, Yuchen, Kusner, Matt J., Silva, Ricardo
We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) when treatments are graph-structured (e.g., molecular graphs of drugs). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose a plug-in estimator that decomposes CATE estimation into separate, simpler optimization problems. Our estimator (a) isolates the causal estimands (reducing regularization bias), and (b) allows one to plug in arbitrary models for learning. In experiments with small-world and molecular graphs, we show that our approach outperforms prior approaches and is robust to varying selection biases.
Beware the Privacy Violations in Artificial Intelligence Applications
It has been proposed that, "Privacy matters to the electorate, and smart business looks at how to use data to find out information while remaining in compliance with regulatory rules." Since "smart business" also consists of "the electorate" as employees, at least one burning question is whether privacy or ethical violations in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) will really matter sufficiently to employees who may be more concerned about putting food on the table than about raising concerns or performing whistleblowing, with potentially negative job consequences for them? And what happens if the country, region, or sector is too immature to have meaningful regulatory rules to comply with? Does it then become a case of almost anything goes? After all, no laws will be broken by the "smart business" in this case.