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Assessing the informative value of macroeconomic indicators for public health forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Macroeconomic conditions influence the environments in which health systems operate, yet their value as leading signals of health system capacity has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we examine whether selected macroeconomic indicators contain predictive information for several capacity-related public health targets, including employment in the health and social assistance workforce, new business applications in the sector, and health care construction spending. Using monthly U.S. time series data, we evaluate multiple forecasting approaches, including neural network models with different optimization strategies, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous macroeconomic indicators, under alternative model fitting designs. Across evaluation settings, we find that macroeconomic indicators provide a consistent and reproducible predictive signal for some public health targets, particularly workforce and infrastructure measures, while other targets exhibit weaker or less stable predictability. Models emphasizing stability and implicit regularization tend to perform more reliably during periods of economic volatility. These findings suggest that macroeconomic indicators may serve as useful upstream signals for digital public health monitoring, while underscoring the need for careful model selection and validation when translating economic trends into health system forecasting tools.


Brother killed after teen becomes 'enraged' over video game, stabs sibling: police

FOX News

Oklahoma teenager William Spencer charged with first-degree murder after allegedly stabbing his brother Nicholas Spencer to death during a video game dispute in Oklahoma City on Sunday.


550-pound Ice Age kangaroos could still hop

Popular Science

Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Kangaroos have likely been hopping across the planet for much longer than experts previously believed. Not only that, but the ancestors of today's marsupials landed their leaps while growing larger than their descendents. For thousands of years, the planet's largest hopping animal has remained Australia's red kangaroo (). A male "Big Red" easily reaches over five feet tall, weighs 200 pounds, and travels around 37 mph at a pace of up to six feet per leap.


Is the world's rules-based order ruptured?

Al Jazeera

Why is the US Fed chair criminal probe causing alarm? Inside Story Is the world's rules-based order ruptured? Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says system is broken, with world powers employing force. The world's rules-based order is ruptured, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said, in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that avoided mentioning United States President Donald Trump. While Trump hit back at Carney, the Canadian leader's words have been widely praised and analysed.


What Happens When a Chinese Battery Factory Comes to Town

WIRED

Chinese firms are building battery plants from Europe to North America, promising jobs while prompting local concerns about the environment, politics, and who really benefits. When the rest of WIRED subscribers get their hands on our next print magazine, you, dear readers of Made in China, can proudly say you heard about it here first. The issue is all about China and includes stories about robots, AI boyfriends, a Chinese town that became the crystal capital of the world, and a Chinese DNA database built for family reunions. Like this newsletter, the issue is our attempt to document how deeply Chinese technology now shapes everyday life--no matter where you live in the world. As part of the issue, I reported a story on how Chinese lithium battery companies like CATL, BYD, and Gotion are now building factories on nearly every continent.


Experts warn of threat to democracy from 'AI bot swarms' infesting social media

The Guardian

Predictions that AI bot swarms were a threat to democracy weren't'fanciful', said Michael Wooldridge, professor of the foundations of AI at Oxford University. Predictions that AI bot swarms were a threat to democracy weren't'fanciful', said Michael Wooldridge, professor of the foundations of AI at Oxford University. Experts warn of threat to democracy from'AI bot swarms' infesting social media Political leaders could soon launch swarms of human-imitating AI agents to reshape public opinion in a way that threatens to undermine democracy, a high profile group of experts in AI and online misinformation has warned. The Nobel peace prize-winning free-speech activist Maria Ressa, and leading AI and social science researchers from Berkeley, Harvard, Oxford, Cambridge and Yale are among a global consortium flagging the new "disruptive threat" posed by hard-to-detect, malicious "AI swarms" infesting social media and messaging channels. A would-be autocrat could use such swarms to persuade populations to accept cancelled elections or overturn results, they said, amid predictions the technology could be deployed at scale by the time of the US presidential election in 2028.


AI-Powered Disinformation Swarms Are Coming for Democracy

WIRED

Advances in artificial intelligence are creating a perfect storm for those seeking to spread disinformation at unprecedented speed and scale. And it's virtually impossible to detect. In 2016, hundreds of Russians filed into a modern office building on 55 Savushkina Street in St. Petersburg every day; they were part of the now-infamous troll farm known as the Internet Research Agency . Day and night, seven days a week, these employees would manually comment on news articles, post on Facebook and Twitter, and generally seek to rile up Americans about the then-upcoming presidential election. When the scheme was finally uncovered, there was widespread media coverage and Senate hearings, and social media platforms made changes in the way they verified users.


NASA reveals list of most scientifically accurate sci-fi movies ever made

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Barron Trump's perfect response to UK 911 operator calling him RUDE when he was saving friend's life... and how case may shift public perception The cancer now killing more Americans under 50 than any other... and why it's still being caught too late Trump goes to war with America's top banker with staggering lawsuit Judge BLOCKS Trump's attempt to charge Don Lemon for joining anti-ICE protesters as they stormed Minnesota church Haunting secret trove of Idaho murder pictures: Leaked images reveal last moments of Bryan Kohberger's victims Secret woman in Heated Rivalry star Hudson Williams' life... as unseen pictures from college days show heartthrob actor as you've never seen him Disney sparks outrage as it quietly eliminates beloved treat from theme park: 'Blatant cost-cutting measure' Hollywood's secret clique of mean girl A-listers exposed in shock new trove of Blake Lively-Justin Baldoni evidence: Read their toe-curling private texts Woke Karen, 63, lets VERY embarrassing detail slip to the Daily Mail after she mistook cops rushing to school for ICE'and tried to obstruct them' Blake Lively and costar Brandon Sklenar unload on Justin Baldoni in bombshell unsealed texts: 'He's scrambling' Tense moment US tennis star shuts down reporter's attempt to get her to criticize Donald Trump ICE blasted over photo of officers'detaining five-year-old boy' - but they hit back with shocking claims against his father Haunting handwritten note shared by boy who stabbed his mother to death when he was 13 as he finds out how long he'll spend behind bars Revealed: What Josh Allen really thinks about Sean McDermott's firing and erratic Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula Killer dad hurled baby son off bridge to his death because of social worker's horrific blunder, lawsuit alleges Trump declares US gets'TOTAL ACCESS' to Greenland as he reveals latest plan Has Aaron Rodgers' wife finally been found? Pete Hegseth accused of policing troops' private lives with Pentagon crackdown on use of intimate devices See Adele's ruthless demolition of Hollywood icon's Mediterranean-style mansion in $50m rebuild, leaving only his statue standing... for now NASA has shared a surprising list of movies it considers among the most scientifically accurate ever made. The films span nearly a century of cinema, from silent-era classics to modern blockbusters and were praised for respecting real scientific principles rather than relying on fantasy. According to NASA and NASA-affiliated scientists, accuracy is not about predicting the future perfectly, but about portraying science, scientists and technology realistically. Movies like Gattaca and Jurassic Park earned recognition for their grounded treatment of genetics, DNA and complex systems.



James Webb Space Telescope solves a comet crystal mystery

Popular Science

A'cosmic highway' may explain the journeys of some space silicates. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Some of the solar system's most distant comets can be very confusing. Many contain crystalline silicates that only form after exposure to high heat, which doesn't make a lot of sense to astronomers. These comets spend most of their time inside the extremely cold Oort cloud and Kuiper Belt, at temperatures averaging -450 degrees Fahrenheit.