Large collections of time series data are commonly organized into structures with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. It is often important to ensure that the forecasts are coherent so that the predicted values at disaggregate levels add up to the aggregate forecast. The growing interest of the Machine Learning community in hierarchical forecasting systems indicates that we are in a propitious moment to ensure that scientific endeavors are grounded on sound baselines. For this reason, we put forward the HierarchicalForecast library, which contains preprocessed publicly available datasets, evaluation metrics, and a compiled set of statistical baseline models. Our Python-based reference framework aims to bridge the gap between statistical and econometric modeling, and Machine Learning forecasting research.

Dialogue systems capable of social influence such as persuasion, negotiation, and therapy, are essential for extending the use of technology to numerous realistic scenarios. However, existing research primarily focuses on either task-oriented or open-domain scenarios, a categorization that has been inadequate for capturing influence skills systematically. There exists no formal definition or category for dialogue systems with these skills and data-driven efforts in this direction are highly limited. In this work, we formally define and introduce the category of social influence dialogue systems that influence users' cognitive and emotional responses, leading to changes in thoughts, opinions, and behaviors through natural conversations. We present a survey of various tasks, datasets, and methods, compiling the progress across seven diverse domains. We discuss the commonalities and differences between the examined systems, identify limitations, and recommend future directions. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for social influence dialogue systems to inspire more dedicated research and discussion in this emerging area.

Marginal-based methods achieve promising performance in the synthetic data competition hosted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). To deal with high-dimensional data, the distribution of synthetic data is represented by a probabilistic graphical model (e.g., a Bayesian network), while the raw data distribution is approximated by a collection of low-dimensional marginals. Differential privacy (DP) is guaranteed by introducing random noise to each lowdimensional marginal distribution. Despite its promising performance in practice, the statistical properties of marginal-based methods are rarely studied in the literature. In this paper, we study DP data synthesis algorithms based on Bayesian networks (BN) from a statistical perspective. Related to downstream machine learning tasks, an upper bound for the utility error of the DP synthetic data is also derived. To complete the picture, we establish a lower bound for TV accuracy that holds for everyǫ-DP synthetic data generator. In recent years, the problem of privacy-preserving data analysis has become increasingly important and differential privacy (Dwork et al., 2006) appears as the foundation of data privacy. Differential privacy (DP) techniques are widely adopted by industrial companies and the U.S. Census Bureau (Johnson et al., 2017; Erlingsson et al., 2014; Nguyên et al., 2016; The U.S. Census Bureau, 2020; Abowd, 2018).

Methods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes due to external factors (passive non-stationarity), changes induced by interactions with the system itself (active non-stationarity), or both (hybrid non-stationarity). In this work, we take the first steps towards the fundamental challenge of on-policy and off-policy evaluation amidst structured changes due to active, passive, or hybrid non-stationarity. Towards this goal, we make a higher-order stationarity assumption such that non-stationarity results in changes over time, but the way changes happen is fixed. We propose, OPEN, an algorithm that uses a double application of counterfactual reasoning and a novel importance-weighted instrument-variable regression to obtain both a lower bias and a lower variance estimate of the structure in the changes of a policy's past performances. Finally, we show promising results on how OPEN can be used to predict future performances for several domains inspired by real-world applications that exhibit non-stationarity.

We introduce a new setting, optimize-and-estimate structured bandits. Here, a policy must select a batch of arms, each characterized by its own context, that would allow it to both maximize reward and maintain an accurate (ideally unbiased) population estimate of the reward. This setting is inherent to many public and private sector applications and often requires handling delayed feedback, small data, and distribution shifts. We demonstrate its importance on real data from the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The IRS performs yearly audits of the tax base. Two of its most important objectives are to identify suspected misreporting and to estimate the "tax gap" -- the global difference between the amount paid and true amount owed. Based on a unique collaboration with the IRS, we cast these two processes as a unified optimize-and-estimate structured bandit. We analyze optimize-and-estimate approaches to the IRS problem and propose a novel mechanism for unbiased population estimation that achieves rewards comparable to baseline approaches. This approach has the potential to improve audit efficacy, while maintaining policy-relevant estimates of the tax gap. This has important social consequences given that the current tax gap is estimated at nearly half a trillion dollars. We suggest that this problem setting is fertile ground for further research and we highlight its interesting challenges. The results of this and related research are currently being incorporated into the continual improvement of the IRS audit selection methods.

Several years ago, before learning much about methods for reasoning with uncertainty, I and my colleagues began work on a large expert system, called Pathfinder, that assists community pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph node pathology. Because the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief was quite popular in our research group at the time, we developed a inference method for our expert system inspired by this theory. The program performed fairly well in the opinion of the expert pathologist who provided the knowledge for the system. In the months following the initial development of Pathfinder, several of us in the research group began exploring other methods for reasoning under uncertainty. We identified the Bayesian approach as a candidate for a new inference procedure. We realized that the measures of uncertainty we assessed from the expert could be interpreted as probabilities and we implemented a new inference method-- a special case of Bayes' theorem. During this time, the expert was running cases through the program to test the system's diagnostic performance. One day, without telling him, we changed the inference procedure to the Bayesian approach. After running several cases with the new approach, the expert exclaimed, "What did you do to the program?

Sentiment analysis has benefited from the availability of lexicons and benchmark datasets created over decades of research. However, its applications to the real world are a driving force for research in SA. This chapter describes some of these applications and related challenges in real-life scenarios. In this chapter, we focus on five applications of SA: health, social policy, e-commerce, digital humanities and other areas of NLP. This chapter is intended to equip an NLP researcher with the `what', `why' and `how' of applications of SA: what is the application about, why it is important and challenging and how current research in SA deals with the application. We note that, while the use of deep learning techniques is a popular paradigm that spans these applications, challenges around privacy and selection bias of datasets is a recurring theme across several applications.

We address the issue of safety in reinforcement learning. We pose the problem in an episodic framework of a constrained Markov decision process. Existing results have shown that it is possible to achieve a reward regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$ while allowing an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$ constraint violation in $K$ episodes. A critical question that arises is whether it is possible to keep the constraint violation even smaller. We show that when a strictly safe policy is known, then one can confine the system to zero constraint violation with arbitrarily high probability while keeping the reward regret of order $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$. The algorithm which does so employs the principle of optimistic pessimism in the face of uncertainty to achieve safe exploration. When no strictly safe policy is known, though one is known to exist, then it is possible to restrict the system to bounded constraint violation with arbitrarily high probability. This is shown to be realized by a primal-dual algorithm with an optimistic primal estimate and a pessimistic dual update.

Fallacies are used as seemingly valid arguments to support a position and persuade the audience about its validity. Recognizing fallacies is an intrinsically difficult task both for humans and machines. Moreover, a big challenge for computational models lies in the fact that fallacies are formulated differently across the datasets with differences in the input format (e.g., question-answer pair, sentence with fallacy fragment), genre (e.g., social media, dialogue, news), as well as types and number of fallacies (from 5 to 18 types per dataset). To move towards solving the fallacy recognition task, we approach these differences across datasets as multiple tasks and show how instruction-based prompting in a multitask setup based on the T5 model improves the results against approaches built for a specific dataset such as T5, BERT or GPT-3. We show the ability of this multitask prompting approach to recognize 28 unique fallacies across domains and genres and study the effect of model size and prompt choice by analyzing the per-class (i.e., fallacy type) results. Finally, we analyze the effect of annotation quality on model performance, and the feasibility of complementing this approach with external knowledge.

A food composition knowledge base, which stores the essential phyto-, micro-, and macro-nutrients of foods is useful for both research and industrial applications. Although many existing knowledge bases attempt to curate such information, they are often limited by time-consuming manual curation processes. Outside of the food science domain, natural language processing methods that utilize pre-trained language models have recently shown promising results for extracting knowledge from unstructured text. In this work, we propose a semi-automated framework for constructing a knowledge base of food composition from the scientific literature available online. To this end, we utilize a pre-trained BioBERT language model in an active learning setup that allows the optimal use of limited training data. Our work demonstrates how human-in-the-loop models are a step toward AI-assisted food systems that scale well to the ever-increasing big data.