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The Dataset Multiplicity Problem: How Unreliable Data Impacts Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce dataset multiplicity, a way to study how inaccuracies, uncertainty, and social bias in training datasets impact test-time predictions. The dataset multiplicity framework asks a counterfactual question of what the set of resultant models (and associated test-time predictions) would be if we could somehow access all hypothetical, unbiased versions of the dataset. We discuss how to use this framework to encapsulate various sources of uncertainty in datasets' factualness, including systemic social bias, data collection practices, and noisy labels or features. We show how to exactly analyze the impacts of dataset multiplicity for a specific model architecture and type of uncertainty: linear models with label errors. Our empirical analysis shows that real-world datasets, under reasonable assumptions, contain many test samples whose predictions are affected by dataset multiplicity. Furthermore, the choice of domain-specific dataset multiplicity definition determines what samples are affected, and whether different demographic groups are disparately impacted. Finally, we discuss implications of dataset multiplicity for machine learning practice and research, including considerations for when model outcomes should not be trusted.


Multi-module based CVAE to predict HVCM faults in the SNS accelerator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a multi-module framework based on Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to detect anomalies in the power signals coming from multiple High Voltage Converter Modulators (HVCMs). We condition the model with the specific modulator type to capture different representations of the normal waveforms and to improve the sensitivity of the model to identify a specific type of fault when we have limited samples for a given module type. We studied several neural network (NN) architectures for our CVAE model and evaluated the model performance by looking at their loss landscape for stability and generalization. Our results for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) experimental data show that the trained model generalizes well to detecting multiple fault types for several HVCM module types. The results of this study can be used to improve the HVCM reliability and overall SNS uptime


Safety Assessment of Chinese Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid popularity of large language models such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, a growing amount of attention is paid to their safety concerns. These models may generate insulting and discriminatory content, reflect incorrect social values, and may be used for malicious purposes such as fraud and dissemination of misleading information. Evaluating and enhancing their safety is particularly essential for the wide application of large language models (LLMs). To further promote the safe deployment of LLMs, we develop a Chinese LLM safety assessment benchmark. Our benchmark explores the comprehensive safety performance of LLMs from two perspectives: 8 kinds of typical safety scenarios and 6 types of more challenging instruction attacks. Our benchmark is based on a straightforward process in which it provides the test prompts and evaluates the safety of the generated responses from the evaluated model. In evaluation, we utilize the LLM's strong evaluation ability and develop it as a safety evaluator by prompting. On top of this benchmark, we conduct safety assessments and analyze 15 LLMs including the OpenAI GPT series and other well-known Chinese LLMs, where we observe some interesting findings. For example, we find that instruction attacks are more likely to expose safety issues of all LLMs. Moreover, to promote the development and deployment of safe, responsible, and ethical AI, we publicly release SafetyPrompts including 100k augmented prompts and responses by LLMs.


A User-Driven Framework for Regulating and Auditing Social Media

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People form judgments and make decisions based on the information that they observe. A growing portion of that information is not only provided, but carefully curated by social media platforms. Although lawmakers largely agree that platforms should not operate without any oversight, there is little consensus on how to regulate social media. There is consensus, however, that creating a strict, global standard of "acceptable" content is untenable (e.g., in the US, it is incompatible with Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and the First Amendment). In this work, we propose that algorithmic filtering should be regulated with respect to a flexible, user-driven baseline. We provide a concrete framework for regulating and auditing a social media platform according to such a baseline. In particular, we introduce the notion of a baseline feed: the content that a user would see without filtering (e.g., on Twitter, this could be the chronological timeline). We require that the feeds a platform filters contain "similar" informational content as their respective baseline feeds, and we design a principled way to measure similarity. This approach is motivated by related suggestions that regulations should increase user agency. We present an auditing procedure that checks whether a platform honors this requirement. Notably, the audit needs only black-box access to a platform's filtering algorithm, and it does not access or infer private user information. We provide theoretical guarantees on the strength of the audit. We further show that requiring closeness between filtered and baseline feeds does not impose a large performance cost, nor does it create echo chambers.


Marrying Fairness and Explainability in Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning algorithms that aid human decision-making may inadvertently discriminate against certain protected groups. We formalize direct discrimination as a direct causal effect of the protected attributes on the decisions, while induced discrimination as a change in the causal influence of non-protected features associated with the protected attributes. The measurements of marginal direct effect (MDE) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) reveal that state-of-the-art fair learning methods can induce discrimination via association or reverse discrimination in synthetic and real-world datasets. To inhibit discrimination in algorithmic systems, we propose to nullify the influence of the protected attribute on the output of the system, while preserving the influence of remaining features. We introduce and study post-processing methods achieving such objectives, finding that they yield relatively high model accuracy, prevent direct discrimination, and diminishes various disparity measures, e.g., demographic disparity.


Enhancing Artificial intelligence Policies with Fusion and Forecasting: Insights from Indian Patents Using Network Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- This paper presents a study of the interconnectivity and interdependence of various Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies through the use of centrality measures, clustering coefficients, and degree of fusion measures. By analyzing the technologies through different time windows and quantifying their importance, we have revealed important insights into the crucial components shaping the AI landscape and the maturity level of the domain. The results of this study have significant implications for future development and advancements in artificial intelligence and provide a clear understanding of key technology areas of fusion. Furthermore, this paper contributes to AI public policy research by offering a data-driven perspective on the current state and future direction of the field. However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of this research and call for further studies to build on these results. With these findings, we hope to inform and guide future research in the field of AI, contributing to its continued growth and success. AI has the potential to revolutionize a wide range of industries from healthcare and finance to transportation and agriculture [1] last but not least environmental hard and societal changes [2]. With the ability to analyze vast amounts of data and automate tasks that were once exclusively performed by humans, AI is reshaping the way we live and work. Given the potential of AI, it is essential to study and understand its applications, fusion of technologies, changes over the years in the domain as well as societal impacts. This understanding is crucial for policymakers, as they must develop effective policies that keep pace with the rapid advancement of AI technology. Moreover, the study of AI is also relevant for individuals, businesses, and organizations, as they must be prepared to adapt to the changes brought about by AI. The study of AI is crucial in today's era to unlock the full potential of this groundbreaking technology and to address the challenges and opportunities it presents.


Language Models Enable Simple Systems for Generating Structured Views of Heterogeneous Data Lakes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A long standing goal of the data management community is to develop general, automated systems that ingest semi-structured documents and output queryable tables without human effort or domain specific customization. Given the sheer variety of potential documents, state-of-the art systems make simplifying assumptions and use domain specific training. In this work, we ask whether we can maintain generality by using large language models (LLMs). LLMs, which are pretrained on broad data, can perform diverse downstream tasks simply conditioned on natural language task descriptions. We propose and evaluate EVAPORATE, a simple, prototype system powered by LLMs. We identify two fundamentally different strategies for implementing this system: prompt the LLM to directly extract values from documents or prompt the LLM to synthesize code that performs the extraction. Our evaluations show a cost-quality tradeoff between these two approaches. Code synthesis is cheap, but far less accurate than directly processing each document with the LLM. To improve quality while maintaining low cost, we propose an extended code synthesis implementation, EVAPORATE-CODE+, which achieves better quality than direct extraction. Our key insight is to generate many candidate functions and ensemble their extractions using weak supervision. EVAPORATE-CODE+ not only outperforms the state-of-the art systems, but does so using a sublinear pass over the documents with the LLM. This equates to a 110x reduction in the number of tokens the LLM needs to process, averaged across 16 real-world evaluation settings of 10k documents each.


Autonomy for Ferries and Harbour Buses: a Collision Avoidance Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides a collision avoidance perspective to maritime autonomy, in the shift towards Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In particular, the paper presents the developments related to the Greenhopper, Denmark's first autonomous harbour bus. The collision and grounding avoidance scheme, called the Short Horizon Planner (SHP), is described and discussed in detail. Furthermore, the required autonomy stack for facilitating safe and rule-compliant collision avoidance is presented. The inherent difficulties related to adhering to the COLREGs are outlined, highlighting some of the operational constraints and challenges within the space of autonomous ferries and harbour buses. Finally, collision and grounding avoidance is demonstrated using a simulation of the whole Greenhopper autonomy stack.


Cyber Security in Smart Manufacturing (Threats, Landscapes Challenges)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industry 4.0 is a blend of the hyper-connected digital industry within two world of Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT). With this amalgamate opportunity, smart manufacturing involves production assets with the manufacturing equipment having its own intelligence, while the system-wide intelligence is provided by the cyber layer. However Smart manufacturing now becomes one of the prime targets of cyber threats due to vulnerabilities in the existing process of operation. Since smart manufacturing covers a vast area of production industries from cyber physical system to additive manufacturing, to autonomous vehicles, to cloud based IIoT (Industrial IoT), to robotic production, cyber threat stands out with this regard questioning about how to connect manufacturing resources by network, how to integrate a whole process chain for a factory production etc. Cybersecurity confidentiality, integrity and availability expose their essential existence for the proper operational thread model known as digital thread ensuring secure manufacturing. In this work, a literature survey is presented from the existing threat models, attack vectors and future challenges over the digital thread of smart manufacturing.


Machine Learning for Economics Research: When What and How?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article provides a curated review of selected papers published in prominent economics journals that use machine learning (ML) tools for research and policy analysis. The review focuses on three key questions: (1) when ML is used in economics, (2) what ML models are commonly preferred, and (3) how they are used for economic applications. The review highlights that ML is particularly used to process nontraditional and unstructured data, capture strong nonlinearity, and improve prediction accuracy. Deep learning models are suitable for nontraditional data, whereas ensemble learning models are preferred for traditional datasets. While traditional econometric models may suffice for analyzing low-complexity data, the increasing complexity of economic data due to rapid digitalization and the growing literature suggests that ML is becoming an essential addition to the econometrician's toolbox.