In machine learning, training data often capture the behaviour of multiple subgroups of some underlying human population. This behaviour can often be modelled as observations of an unknown dynamical system with an unobserved state. When the training data for the subgroups are not controlled carefully, however, under-representation bias arises. To counter under-representation bias, we introduce two natural notions of fairness in time-series forecasting problems: subgroup fairness and instantaneous fairness. These notions extend predictive parity to the learning of dynamical systems. We also show globally convergent methods for the fairness-constrained learning problems using hierarchies of convexifications of non-commutative polynomial optimisation problems. We also show that by exploiting sparsity in the convexifications, we can reduce the run time of our methods considerably. Our empirical results on a biased data set motivated by insurance applications and the well-known COMPAS data set demonstrate the efficacy of our methods.

How can we detect traffic disturbances from international flight transportation logs or changes to collaboration dynamics in academic networks? These problems can be formulated as detecting anomalous change points in a dynamic graph. Current solutions do not scale well to large real-world graphs, lack robustness to large amounts of node additions/deletions, and overlook changes in node attributes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel spectral method: Scalable Change Point Detection (SCPD). SCPD generates an embedding for each graph snapshot by efficiently approximating the distribution of the Laplacian spectrum at each step. SCPD can also capture shifts in node attributes by tracking correlations between attributes and eigenvectors. Through extensive experiments using synthetic and real-world data, we show that SCPD (a) achieves state-of-the art performance, (b) is significantly faster than the state-of-the-art methods and can easily process millions of edges in a few CPU minutes, (c) can effectively tackle a large quantity of node attributes, additions or deletions and (d) discovers interesting events in large real-world graphs. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/shenyangHuang/SCPD.git

Recent studies suggest social media activity can function as a proxy for measures of state-level public health, detectable through natural language processing. We present results of our efforts to apply this approach to estimate homelessness at the state level throughout the US during the period 2010-2019 and 2022 using a dataset of roughly 1 million geotagged tweets containing the substring ``homeless.'' Correlations between homelessness-related tweet counts and ranked per capita homelessness volume, but not general-population densities, suggest a relationship between the likelihood of Twitter users to personally encounter or observe homelessness in their everyday lives and their likelihood to communicate about it online. An increase to the log-odds of ``homeless'' appearing in an English-language tweet, as well as an acceleration in the increase in average tweet sentiment, suggest that tweets about homelessness are also affected by trends at the nation-scale. Additionally, changes to the lexical content of tweets over time suggest that reversals to the polarity of national or state-level trends may be detectable through an increase in political or service-sector language over the semantics of charity or direct appeals. An analysis of user account type also revealed changes to Twitter-use patterns by accounts authored by individuals versus entities that may provide an additional signal to confirm changes to homelessness density in a given jurisdiction. While a computational approach to social media analysis may provide a low-cost, real-time dataset rich with information about nationwide and localized impacts of homelessness and homelessness policy, we find that practical issues abound, limiting the potential of social media as a proxy to complement other measures of homelessness.

The rationale of this work is based on the current user trust discourse of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We aim to produce novel HCI approaches that use trust as a facilitator for the uptake (or appropriation) of current technologies. We propose a framework (HCTFrame) to guide non-experts to unlock the full potential of user trust in AI design. Results derived from a data triangulation of findings from three literature reviews demystify some misconceptions of user trust in computer science and AI discourse, and three case studies are conducted to assess the effectiveness of a psychometric scale in mapping potential users' trust breakdowns and concerns. This work primarily contributes to the fight against the tendency to design technical-centered vulnerable interactions, which can eventually lead to additional real and perceived breaches of trust. The proposed framework can be used to guide system designers on how to map and define user trust and the socioethical and organisational needs and characteristics of AI system design. It can also guide AI system designers on how to develop a prototype and operationalise a solution that meets user trust requirements. The article ends by providing some user research tools that can be employed to measure users' trust intentions and behaviours towards a proposed solution.

We introduce new power indices to measure the a priori voting power of voters in liquid democracy elections where an underlying network restricts delegations. We argue that our power indices are natural extensions of the standard Penrose-Banzhaf index in simple voting games. We show that computing the criticality of a voter is #P-hard even when voting weights are polynomially-bounded in the size of the instance. However, for specific settings, such as when the underlying network is a bipartite or complete graph, recursive formulas can compute these indices for weighted voting games in pseudo-polynomial time. We highlight their theoretical properties and provide numerical results to illustrate how restricting the possible delegations can alter voters' voting power.

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). Through the development of a formal causal inference framework, we outline sufficient causal assumptions about the exchangeability between the internal and external controls to identify the ATE and establish the connection to a novel graphical criteria. We propose estimators, review efficiency bounds, develop an approach for efficient doubly-robust estimation even when unknown nuisance models are estimated with flexible machine learning methods, and demonstrate finite-sample performance through a simulation study. To illustrate the ideas and methods, we apply the framework to a trial investigating the effect of risdisplam on motor function in patients with spinal muscular atrophy for which there exists an external set of control patients from a previous trial.

Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced the subseasonal capabilities of operational dynamical models, yet temperature and precipitation prediction skills remain poor, partly due to stubborn errors in representing atmospheric dynamics and physics inside dynamical models. Here, to counter these errors, we introduce an adaptive bias correction (ABC) method that combines state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts with observations using machine learning. We show that, when applied to the leading subseasonal model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ABC improves temperature forecasting skill by 60-90% (over baseline skills of 0.18-0.25) and precipitation forecasting skill by 40-69% (over baseline skills of 0.11-0.15) in the contiguous U.S. We couple these performance improvements with a practical workflow to explain ABC skill gains and identify higher-skill windows of opportunity based on specific climate conditions.

Auditing plays a pivotal role in the development of trustworthy AI. However, current research primarily focuses on creating auditable AI documentation, which is intended for regulators and experts rather than end-users affected by AI decisions. How to communicate to members of the public that an AI has been audited and considered trustworthy remains an open challenge. This study empirically investigated certification labels as a promising solution. Through interviews (N = 12) and a census-representative survey (N = 302), we investigated end-users' attitudes toward certification labels and their effectiveness in communicating trustworthiness in low- and high-stakes AI scenarios. Based on the survey results, we demonstrate that labels can significantly increase end-users' trust and willingness to use AI in both low- and high-stakes scenarios. However, end-users' preferences for certification labels and their effect on trust and willingness to use AI were more pronounced in high-stake scenarios. Qualitative content analysis of the interviews revealed opportunities and limitations of certification labels, as well as facilitators and inhibitors for the effective use of labels in the context of AI. For example, while certification labels can mitigate data-related concerns expressed by end-users (e.g., privacy and data protection), other concerns (e.g., model performance) are more challenging to address. Our study provides valuable insights and recommendations for designing and implementing certification labels as a promising constituent within the trustworthy AI ecosystem.

This paper aims to serve as a comprehensive guide for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into the current state, potential applications, and future research directions for generative artificial intelligence and foundation models within the context of intelligent vehicles. As the automotive industry progressively integrates AI, generative artificial intelligence technologies hold the potential to revolutionize user interactions, delivering more immersive, intuitive, and personalised in-car experiences. We provide an overview of current applications of generative artificial intelligence in the automotive domain, emphasizing speech, audio, vision, and multimodal interactions. We subsequently outline critical future research areas, including domain adaptability, alignment, multimodal integration and others, as well as, address the challenges and risks associated with ethics. By fostering collaboration and addressing these research areas, generative artificial intelligence can unlock its full potential, transforming the driving experience and shaping the future of intelligent vehicles.

Holistic benchmarks for quantum computers are essential for testing and summarizing the performance of quantum hardware. However, holistic benchmarks -- such as algorithmic or randomized benchmarks -- typically do not predict a processor's performance on circuits outside the benchmark's necessarily very limited set of test circuits. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for building predictive models from benchmarking data using capability models. Capability models can be fit to many kinds of benchmarking data and used for a variety of predictive tasks. We demonstrate this flexibility with two case studies. In the first case study, we predict circuit (i) process fidelities and (ii) success probabilities by fitting error rates models to two kinds of volumetric benchmarking data. Error rates models are simple, yet versatile capability models which assign effective error rates to individual gates, or more general circuit components. In the second case study, we construct a capability model for predicting circuit success probabilities by applying transfer learning to ResNet50, a neural network trained for image classification. Our case studies use data from cloud-accessible quantum computers and simulations of noisy quantum computers.