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Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Review on Applications and Measurement Methods with Focus on Text Mining Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) represents the uncertainty realized by the investors during economic policy alterations. EPU is a critical indicator in economic studies to predict future investments, the unemployment rate, and recessions. EPU values can be estimated based on financial parameters directly or implied uncertainty indirectly using the text mining methods. Although EPU is a well-studied topic within the economy, the methods utilized to measure it are understudied. In this article, we define the EPU briefly and review the methods used to measure the EPU, and survey the areas influenced by the changes in EPU level. We divide the EPU measurement methods into three major groups with respect to their input data. Examples of each group of methods are enlisted, and the pros and cons of the groups are discussed. Among the EPU measures, text mining-based ones are dominantly studied. These methods measure the realized uncertainty by taking into account the uncertainty represented in the news and publicly available sources of financial information. Finally, we survey the research areas that rely on measuring the EPU index with the hope that studying the impacts of uncertainty would attract further attention of researchers from various research fields. In addition, we propose a list of future research approaches focusing on measuring EPU using textual material.


Using Large Language Models for Cybersecurity Capture-The-Flag Challenges and Certification Questions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The assessment of cybersecurity Capture-The-Flag (CTF) exercises involves participants finding text strings or ``flags'' by exploiting system vulnerabilities. Large Language Models (LLMs) are natural-language models trained on vast amounts of words to understand and generate text; they can perform well on many CTF challenges. Such LLMs are freely available to students. In the context of CTF exercises in the classroom, this raises concerns about academic integrity. Educators must understand LLMs' capabilities to modify their teaching to accommodate generative AI assistance. This research investigates the effectiveness of LLMs, particularly in the realm of CTF challenges and questions. Here we evaluate three popular LLMs, OpenAI ChatGPT, Google Bard, and Microsoft Bing. First, we assess the LLMs' question-answering performance on five Cisco certifications with varying difficulty levels. Next, we qualitatively study the LLMs' abilities in solving CTF challenges to understand their limitations. We report on the experience of using the LLMs for seven test cases in all five types of CTF challenges. In addition, we demonstrate how jailbreak prompts can bypass and break LLMs' ethical safeguards. The paper concludes by discussing LLM's impact on CTF exercises and its implications.


LegalBench: A Collaboratively Built Benchmark for Measuring Legal Reasoning in Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advent of large language models (LLMs) and their adoption by the legal community has given rise to the question: what types of legal reasoning can LLMs perform? To enable greater study of this question, we present LegalBench: a collaboratively constructed legal reasoning benchmark consisting of 162 tasks covering six different types of legal reasoning. LegalBench was built through an interdisciplinary process, in which we collected tasks designed and hand-crafted by legal professionals. Because these subject matter experts took a leading role in construction, tasks either measure legal reasoning capabilities that are practically useful, or measure reasoning skills that lawyers find interesting. To enable cross-disciplinary conversations about LLMs in the law, we additionally show how popular legal frameworks for describing legal reasoning -- which distinguish between its many forms -- correspond to LegalBench tasks, thus giving lawyers and LLM developers a common vocabulary. This paper describes LegalBench, presents an empirical evaluation of 20 open-source and commercial LLMs, and illustrates the types of research explorations LegalBench enables.


Can Large Language Models Find And Fix Vulnerable Software?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we evaluated the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly OpenAI's GPT-4, in detecting software vulnerabilities, comparing their performance against traditional static code analyzers like Snyk and Fortify. Our analysis covered numerous repositories, including those from NASA and the Department of Defense. GPT-4 identified approximately four times the vulnerabilities than its counterparts. Furthermore, it provided viable fixes for each vulnerability, demonstrating a low rate of false positives. Our tests encompassed 129 code samples across eight programming languages, revealing the highest vulnerabilities in PHP and JavaScript. GPT-4's code corrections led to a 90% reduction in vulnerabilities, requiring only an 11% increase in code lines. A critical insight was LLMs' ability to self-audit, suggesting fixes for their identified vulnerabilities and underscoring their precision. Future research should explore system-level vulnerabilities and integrate multiple static code analyzers for a holistic perspective on LLMs' potential.


Enhancing Spatiotemporal Traffic Prediction through Urban Human Activity Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic prediction is one of the key elements to ensure the safety and convenience of citizens. Existing traffic prediction models primarily focus on deep learning architectures to capture spatial and temporal correlation. They often overlook the underlying nature of traffic. Specifically, the sensor networks in most traffic datasets do not accurately represent the actual road network exploited by vehicles, failing to provide insights into the traffic patterns in urban activities. To overcome these limitations, we propose an improved traffic prediction method based on graph convolution deep learning algorithms. We leverage human activity frequency data from National Household Travel Survey to enhance the inference capability of a causal relationship between activity and traffic patterns. Despite making minimal modifications to the conventional graph convolutional recurrent networks and graph convolutional transformer architectures, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance without introducing excessive computational overhead.


After disturbing week for Cruise robotaxis, state applies the brakes

Los Angeles Times

It was a week of robotaxi mayhem in San Francisco for the Cruise driverless car company -- by turns bizarre, comic and alarming. As a result, the California Department of Motor Vehicles said Friday it's investigating "recent concerning incidents" involving Cruise vehicles while tapping the brakes on the company's ambitious expansion plans. The DMV didn't say which incidents it's probing, but over a seven-day period the events included: Stuck in the wet muck, it was removed later by workers dispatched by Cruise. The truck struck the car, occupied by one passenger, who was transported to a hospital. Cruise said the passenger sustained "what we believe are non-severe injuries."


Is THIS the 'Tic Tac' UFO pilots are seeing? Advanced drones that can fly silently 'without any signs of propulsion' may be behind mystery sightings, experts say

Daily Mail - Science & tech

A new drone which flies almost silently without wings or propellers has raised questions about how many supposed UFO sightings might actually be man-made craft. The Silent Ventus drone, made by Florida-based start-up Undefined Technologies, uses ion propulsion, with electrodes ionizing the air to generate thrust, and flies incredibly quietly. The hi-tech drones may possibly explain sightings such as the famous'Tic Tac' drone sighting, where pilots spotted a craft resembling the breath mint performing impossible maneuvers during a training mission with the USS Nimitz off the Southern California coast in 2004. Undefined Technologies' claim that its ion-propelled eVTOL drone generates 150% more thrust than rivals (Undefined Technologies) The company hopes to achieve a 15-minute flight this year and believes the drone could be used for'last mile' deliveries (Undefined Technologies) Undefined Technologies' claim that its ion-propelled eVTOL drone generates 150 percent more thrust than rivals. The company hopes to demonstrate a 15-minute flight with noise levels below 70dB this year - ion drives are widely used in satellites and spacecraft, but less common on Earth.


As Russian and Indian lunar landings near, the moon rush gets crowded

Washington Post - Technology News

It is unclear how others will act as well. To encourage transparency, NASA and the State Department have created a program called the Artemis Accords, a legal framework that establishes rules for the peaceful use of space and governs behavior on the surface of the moon. So far, nearly 30 countries have signed and would be mandated to adhere to a set of rules, such as publicly sharing scientific discoveries and creating "safety zones" where nations could work undisturbed on the lunar surface. India is a signatory and joined in June. But Russia is not and neither is China, which also has aims to set up a presence on the lunar south pole.


Global Warming In Ghana's Major Cities Based on Statistical Analysis of NASA's POWER Over 3-Decades

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Global warming's impact on high temperatures in various parts of the world has raised concerns. This study investigates long-term temperature trends in four major Ghanaian cities representing distinct climatic zones. Using NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data, statistical analyses assess local climate warming and its implications. Linear regression trend analysis and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning predict temperature variations. Land Surface Temperature (LST) profile maps generated from the RSLab platform enhance accuracy. Results reveal local warming trends, particularly in industrialized Accra. Demographic factors aren't significant. XGBoost model's low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) scores demonstrate effectiveness in capturing temperature patterns. Wa unexpectedly has the highest mean temperature. Estimated mean temperatures for mid-2023 are: Accra 27.86{\deg}C, Kumasi 27.15{\deg}C, Kete-Krachi 29.39{\deg}C, and Wa 30.76{\deg}C. These findings improve understanding of local climate warming for policymakers and communities, aiding climate change strategies.


Rafting Towards Consensus: Formation Control of Distributed Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we introduce a novel adaptation of the Raft consensus algorithm for achieving emergent formation control in multi-agent systems with a single integrator dynamics. This strategy, dubbed "Rafting," enables robust cooperation between distributed nodes, thereby facilitating the achievement of desired geometric configurations. Our framework takes advantage of the Raft algorithm's inherent fault tolerance and strong consistency guarantees to extend its applicability to distributed formation control tasks. Following the introduction of a decentralized mechanism for aggregating agent states, a synchronization protocol for information exchange and consensus formation is proposed. The Raft consensus algorithm combines leader election, log replication, and state machine application to steer agents toward a common, collaborative goal. A series of detailed simulations validate the efficacy and robustness of our method under various conditions, including partial network failures and disturbances. The outcomes demonstrate the algorithm's potential and open up new possibilities in swarm robotics, autonomous transportation, and distributed computation. The implementation of the algorithms presented in this paper is available at https://github.com/abbas-tari/raft.git.