Developing and discovering new drugs is a complex and resource-intensive endeavor that often involves substantial costs, time investment, and safety concerns. A key aspect of drug discovery involves identifying novel drug-target (DT) interactions. Existing computational methods for predicting DT interactions have primarily focused on binary classification tasks, aiming to determine whether a DT pair interacts or not. However, protein-ligand interactions exhibit a continuum of binding strengths, known as binding affinity, presenting a persistent challenge for accurate prediction. In this study, we investigate various techniques employed in Drug Target Interaction (DTI) prediction and propose novel enhancements to enhance their performance. Our approaches include the integration of Protein Language Models (PLMs) and the incorporation of Contact Map information as an inductive bias within current models. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that our proposed approaches outperform the baseline models considered in this study, presenting a compelling case for further development in this direction. We anticipate that the insights gained from this work will significantly narrow the search space for potential drugs targeting specific proteins, thereby accelerating drug discovery.

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.

Generated texts from large language models (LLMs) are remarkably close to high-quality human-authored text, raising concerns about their potential misuse in spreading false information and academic misconduct. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a highly practical detection tool capable of accurately identifying the source of a given text. However, existing detection tools typically rely on access to LLMs and can only differentiate between machine-generated and human-authored text, failing to meet the requirements of fine-grained tracing, intermediary judgment, and rapid detection. Therefore, we propose LLMDet, a model-specific, secure, efficient, and extendable detection tool, that can source text from specific LLMs, such as GPT-2, OPT, LLaMA, and others. In LLMDet, we record the next-token probabilities of salient n-grams as features to calculate proxy perplexity for each LLM. By jointly analyzing the proxy perplexities of LLMs, we can determine the source of the generated text. Experimental results show that LLMDet yields impressive detection performance while ensuring speed and security, achieving 98.54% precision and x5.0 faster for recognizing human-authored text. Additionally, LLMDet can effortlessly extend its detection capabilities to a new open-source model. We will provide an open-source tool at https://github.com/TrustedLLM/LLMDet.

The UK COVID-19 Vocal Audio Dataset is designed for the training and evaluation of machine learning models that classify SARS-CoV-2 infection status or associated respiratory symptoms using vocal audio. The UK Health Security Agency recruited voluntary participants through the national Test and Trace programme and the REACT-1 survey in England from March 2021 to March 2022, during dominant transmission of the Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants and some Omicron variant sublineages. Audio recordings of volitional coughs, exhalations, and speech were collected in the 'Speak up to help beat coronavirus' digital survey alongside demographic, self-reported symptom and respiratory condition data, and linked to SARS-CoV-2 test results. The UK COVID-19 Vocal Audio Dataset represents the largest collection of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-referenced audio recordings to date. PCR results were linked to 70,794 of 72,999 participants and 24,155 of 25,776 positive cases. Respiratory symptoms were reported by 45.62% of participants. This dataset has additional potential uses for bioacoustics research, with 11.30% participants reporting asthma, and 27.20% with linked influenza PCR test results.

Injecting structure into neural networks enables learning functions that satisfy invariances with respect to subsets of inputs. For instance, when learning generative models using neural networks, it is advantageous to encode the conditional independence structure of observed variables, often in the form of Bayesian networks. We propose the Structured Neural Network (StrNN), which injects structure through masking pathways in a neural network. The masks are designed via a novel relationship we explore between neural network architectures and binary matrix factorization, to ensure that the desired independencies are respected. We devise and study practical algorithms for this otherwise NP-hard design problem based on novel objectives that control the model architecture. We demonstrate the utility of StrNN in three applications: (1) binary and Gaussian density estimation with StrNN, (2) real-valued density estimation with Structured Autoregressive Flows (StrAFs) and Structured Continuous Normalizing Flows (StrCNF), and (3) interventional and counterfactual analysis with StrAFs for causal inference. Our work opens up new avenues for learning neural networks that enable data-efficient generative modeling and the use of normalizing flows for causal effect estimation.

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for inferring how covariates affect specific percentiles of the response distribution. Existing methods either estimate conditional quantiles separately for each quantile of interest or estimate the entire conditional distribution using semi- or non-parametric models. The former often produce inadequate models for real data and do not share information across quantiles, while the latter are characterized by complex and constrained models that can be difficult to interpret and computationally inefficient. Further, neither approach is well-suited for quantile-specific subset selection. Instead, we pose the fundamental problems of linear quantile estimation, uncertainty quantification, and subset selection from a Bayesian decision analysis perspective. For any Bayesian regression model, we derive optimal and interpretable linear estimates and uncertainty quantification for each model-based conditional quantile. Our approach introduces a quantile-focused squared error loss, which enables efficient, closed-form computing and maintains a close relationship with Wasserstein-based density estimation. In an extensive simulation study, our methods demonstrate substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, variable selection, and inference over frequentist and Bayesian competitors. We apply these tools to identify the quantile-specific impacts of social and environmental stressors on educational outcomes for a large cohort of children in North Carolina.

Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have made significant progress by leveraging function approximation to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better performance. Despite the success, existing provably efficient algorithms typically rely on the accessibility of immediate feedback upon taking actions. The failure to account for the impact of delay in observations can significantly degrade the performance of real-world systems due to the regret blow-up. In this work, we tackle the challenge of delayed feedback in RL with linear function approximation by employing posterior sampling, which has been shown to empirically outperform the popular UCB algorithms in a wide range of regimes. We first introduce Delayed-PSVI, an optimistic value-based algorithm that effectively explores the value function space via noise perturbation with posterior sampling. We provide the first analysis for posterior sampling algorithms with delayed feedback in RL and show our algorithm achieves $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d^3H^3 T} + d^2H^2 E[\tau])$ worst-case regret in the presence of unknown stochastic delays. Here $E[\tau]$ is the expected delay. To further improve its computational efficiency and to expand its applicability in high-dimensional RL problems, we incorporate a gradient-based approximate sampling scheme via Langevin dynamics for Delayed-LPSVI, which maintains the same order-optimal regret guarantee with $\widetilde{O}(dHK)$ computational cost. Empirical evaluations are performed to demonstrate the statistical and computational efficacy of our algorithms.

Transfer learning and ensembling are two popular techniques for improving the performance and robustness of neural networks. Due to the high cost of pre-training, ensembles of models fine-tuned from a single pre-trained checkpoint are often used in practice. Such models end up in the same basin of the loss landscape, which we call the pre-train basin, and thus have limited diversity. In this work, we show that ensembles trained from a single pre-trained checkpoint may be improved by better exploring the pre-train basin, however, leaving the basin results in losing the benefits of transfer learning and in degradation of the ensemble quality. Based on the analysis of existing exploration methods, we propose a more effective modification of the Snapshot Ensembles (SSE) for transfer learning setup, StarSSE, which results in stronger ensembles and uniform model soups.

Earlier this week, Elon Musk was interviewed by the American podcast host Joe Rogan. On Wednesday he was grilled by reporters outside the AI safety summit in Bletchley Park. On Thursday, it was the turn of the British prime minister. British officials have crowed for days about their success in getting the world's richest man to attend the summit, which was a pet project for Sunak. So delighted were they at the UK's pulling power they decided to give the X owner a 40-minute in-person conversation with the prime minister in the glamorous surrounds of Lancaster House, previously used as a set for The Crown.

Kara Frederick, tech director at the Heritage Foundation, discusses the need for regulations on artificial intelligence as lawmakers and tech titans discuss the potential risks. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a powerful technology that can bring many benefits to society but also poses many challenges and risks. To ensure that the United States leads the way in seizing the opportunity and managing the risks of AI, President Biden issued a landmark executive order on October 30, 2023. The Biden administration is using the Defense Production Act, a 75-year-old law that gives the White House wide authority to regulate industries related to national security, to compel companies to tell the federal government about potential national security risks related to their AI work. This is the first executive order from the federal government that directly regulates AI, and it follows the voluntary commitments of 15 major AI companies, such as Google, Microsoft and OpenAI.