Government
Symbolic Regression as Feature Engineering Method for Machine and Deep Learning Regression Tasks
Shmuel, Assaf, Glickman, Oren, Lazebnik, Teddy
In the realm of machine and deep learning regression tasks, the role of effective feature engineering (FE) is pivotal in enhancing model performance. Traditional approaches of FE often rely on domain expertise to manually design features for machine learning models. In the context of deep learning models, the FE is embedded in the neural network's architecture, making it hard for interpretation. In this study, we propose to integrate symbolic regression (SR) as an FE process before a machine learning model to improve its performance. We show, through extensive experimentation on synthetic and real-world physics-related datasets, that the incorporation of SR-derived features significantly enhances the predictive capabilities of both machine and deep learning regression models with 34-86% root mean square error (RMSE) improvement in synthetic datasets and 4-11.5% improvement in real-world datasets. In addition, as a realistic use-case, we show the proposed method improves the machine learning performance in predicting superconducting critical temperatures based on Eliashberg theory by more than 20% in terms of RMSE. These results outline the potential of SR as an FE component in data-driven models.
Ontology Learning Using Formal Concept Analysis and WordNet
Manual ontology construction takes time, resources, and domain specialists. Supporting a component of this process for automation or semi-automation would be good. This project and dissertation provide a Formal Concept Analysis and WordNet framework for learning concept hierarchies from free texts. The process has steps. First, the document is Part-Of-Speech labeled, then parsed to produce sentence parse trees. Verb/noun dependencies are derived from parse trees next. After lemmatizing, pruning, and filtering the word pairings, the formal context is created. The formal context may contain some erroneous and uninteresting pairs because the parser output may be erroneous, not all derived pairs are interesting, and it may be large due to constructing it from a large free text corpus. Deriving lattice from the formal context may take longer, depending on the size and complexity of the data. Thus, decreasing formal context may eliminate erroneous and uninteresting pairs and speed up idea lattice derivation. WordNet-based and Frequency-based approaches are tested. Finally, we compute formal idea lattice and create a classical concept hierarchy. The reduced concept lattice is compared to the original to evaluate the outcomes. Despite several system constraints and component discrepancies that may prevent logical conclusion, the following data imply idea hierarchies in this project and dissertation are promising. First, the reduced idea lattice and original concept have commonalities. Second, alternative language or statistical methods can reduce formal context size. Finally, WordNet-based and Frequency-based approaches reduce formal context differently, and the order of applying them is examined to reduce context efficiently.
Earnings Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks
Scherrmann, Moritz, Elsas, Ralf
Firm disclosures about future prospects are crucial for corporate valuation and compliance with global regulations, such as the EU's MAR and the US's SEC Rule 10b-5 and RegFD. To comply with disclosure obligations, issuers must identify nonpublic information with potential material impact on security prices as only new, relevant and unexpected information materially affects prices in efficient markets. Financial analysts, assumed to represent public knowledge on firms' earnings prospects, face limitations in offering comprehensive coverage and unbiased estimates. This study develops a neural network to forecast future firm earnings, using four decades of financial data, addressing analysts' coverage gaps and potentially revealing hidden insights. The model avoids selectivity and survivorship biases as it allows for missing data. Furthermore, the model is able to produce both fiscal-year-end and quarterly earnings predictions. Its performance surpasses benchmark models from the academic literature by a wide margin and outperforms analysts' forecasts for fiscal-year-end earnings predictions.
CALLOC: Curriculum Adversarial Learning for Secure and Robust Indoor Localization
Gufran, Danish, Pasricha, Sudeep
Indoor localization has become increasingly vital for many applications from tracking assets to delivering personalized services. Yet, achieving pinpoint accuracy remains a challenge due to variations across indoor environments and devices used to assist with localization. Another emerging challenge is adversarial attacks on indoor localization systems that not only threaten service integrity but also reduce localization accuracy. To combat these challenges, we introduce CALLOC, a novel framework designed to resist adversarial attacks and variations across indoor environments and devices that reduce system accuracy and reliability. CALLOC employs a novel adaptive curriculum learning approach with a domain specific lightweight scaled-dot product attention neural network, tailored for adversarial and variation resilience in practical use cases with resource constrained mobile devices. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that CALLOC can achieve improvements of up to 6.03x in mean error and 4.6x in worst-case error against state-of-the-art indoor localization frameworks, across diverse building floorplans, mobile devices, and adversarial attacks scenarios.
Is it indeed bigger better? The comprehensive study of claim detection LMs applied for disinformation tackling
Hyben, Martin, Kula, Sebastian, Srba, Ivan, Moro, Robert, Simko, Jakub
This study compares the performance of (1) fine-tuned models and (2) extremely large language models on the task of check-worthy claim detection. For the purpose of the comparison we composed a multilingual and multi-topical dataset comprising texts of various sources and styles. Building on this, we performed a benchmark analysis to determine the most general multilingual and multi-topical claim detector. We chose three state-of-the-art models in the check-worthy claim detection task and fine-tuned them. Furthermore, we selected three state-of-the-art extremely large language models without any fine-tuning. We made modifications to the models to adapt them for multilingual settings and through extensive experimentation and evaluation. We assessed the performance of all the models in terms of accuracy, recall, and F1-score in in-domain and cross-domain scenarios. Our results demonstrate that despite the technological progress in the area of natural language processing, the models fine-tuned for the task of check-worthy claim detection still outperform the zero-shot approaches in a cross-domain settings.
Robust Adversarial Attacks Detection for Deep Learning based Relative Pose Estimation for Space Rendezvous
Wang, Ziwei, Aouf, Nabil, Pizarro, Jose, Honvault, Christophe
Research on developing deep learning techniques for autonomous spacecraft relative navigation challenges is continuously growing in recent years. Adopting those techniques offers enhanced performance. However, such approaches also introduce heightened apprehensions regarding the trustability and security of such deep learning methods through their susceptibility to adversarial attacks. In this work, we propose a novel approach for adversarial attack detection for deep neural network-based relative pose estimation schemes based on the explainability concept. We develop for an orbital rendezvous scenario an innovative relative pose estimation technique adopting our proposed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), which takes an image from the chaser's onboard camera and outputs accurately the target's relative position and rotation. We perturb seamlessly the input images using adversarial attacks that are generated by the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM). The adversarial attack detector is then built based on a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network which takes the explainability measure namely SHapley Value from the CNN-based pose estimator and flags the detection of adversarial attacks when acting. Simulation results show that the proposed adversarial attack detector achieves a detection accuracy of 99.21%. Both the deep relative pose estimator and adversarial attack detector are then tested on real data captured from our laboratory-designed setup. The experimental results from our laboratory-designed setup demonstrate that the proposed adversarial attack detector achieves an average detection accuracy of 96.29%.
FlashFFTConv: Efficient Convolutions for Long Sequences with Tensor Cores
Fu, Daniel Y., Kumbong, Hermann, Nguyen, Eric, Rรฉ, Christopher
Convolution models with long filters have demonstrated state-of-the-art reasoning abilities in many long-sequence tasks but lag behind the most optimized Transformers in wall-clock time. A major bottleneck is the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)--which allows long convolutions to run in $O(N logN)$ time in sequence length $N$ but has poor hardware utilization. In this paper, we study how to optimize the FFT convolution. We find two key bottlenecks: the FFT does not effectively use specialized matrix multiply units, and it incurs expensive I/O between layers of the memory hierarchy. In response, we propose FlashFFTConv. FlashFFTConv uses a matrix decomposition that computes the FFT using matrix multiply units and enables kernel fusion for long sequences, reducing I/O. We also present two sparse convolution algorithms--1) partial convolutions and 2) frequency-sparse convolutions--which can be implemented simply by skipping blocks in the matrix decomposition, enabling further opportunities for memory and compute savings. FlashFFTConv speeds up exact FFT convolutions by up to 7.93$\times$ over PyTorch and achieves up to 4.4$\times$ speedup end-to-end. Given the same compute budget, FlashFFTConv allows Hyena-GPT-s to achieve 2.3 points better perplexity on the PILE and M2-BERT-base to achieve 3.3 points higher GLUE score--matching models with twice the parameter count. FlashFFTConv also achieves 96.1% accuracy on Path-512, a high-resolution vision task where no model had previously achieved better than 50%. Furthermore, partial convolutions enable longer-sequence models--yielding the first DNA model that can process the longest human genes (2.3M base pairs)--and frequency-sparse convolutions speed up pretrained models while maintaining or improving model quality.
Astrocytes as a mechanism for meta-plasticity and contextually-guided network function
Gong, Lulu, Pasqualetti, Fabio, Papouin, Thomas, Ching, ShiNung
Astrocytes are a ubiquitous and enigmatic type of non-neuronal cell and are found in the brain of all vertebrates. While traditionally viewed as being supportive of neurons, it is increasingly recognized that astrocytes may play a more direct and active role in brain function and neural computation. On account of their sensitivity to a host of physiological covariates and ability to modulate neuronal activity and connectivity on slower time scales, astrocytes may be particularly well poised to modulate the dynamics of neural circuits in functionally salient ways. In the current paper, we seek to capture these features via actionable abstractions within computational models of neuron-astrocyte interaction. Specifically, we engage how nested feedback loops of neuron-astrocyte interaction, acting over separated time-scales may endow astrocytes with the capability to enable learning in context-dependent settings, where fluctuations in task parameters may occur much more slowly than within-task requirements. We pose a general model of neuron-synapse-astrocyte interaction and use formal analysis to characterize how astrocytic modulation may constitute a form of meta-plasticity, altering the ways in which synapses and neurons adapt as a function of time. We then embed this model in a bandit-based reinforcement learning task environment, and show how the presence of time-scale separated astrocytic modulation enables learning over multiple fluctuating contexts. Indeed, these networks learn far more reliably versus dynamically homogeneous networks and conventional non-network-based bandit algorithms. Our results indicate how the presence of neuron-astrocyte interaction in the brain may benefit learning over different time-scales and the conveyance of task-relevant contextual information onto circuit dynamics.
Tipping Points of Evolving Epidemiological Networks: Machine Learning-Assisted, Data-Driven Effective Modeling
Evangelou, Nikolaos, Cui, Tianqi, Bello-Rivas, Juan M., Makeev, Alexei, Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.
We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) in terms of physically meaningful coarse mean-field variables through a deep-learning ResNet architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators. We construct an approximate effective bifurcation diagram based on the identified drift term of the eSDE and contrast it with the mean-field SIS model bifurcation diagram. We observe a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the evolving network's effective SIS dynamics, that causes the tipping point behavior; this takes the form of large amplitude collective oscillations that spontaneously -- yet rarely -- arise from the neighborhood of a (noisy) stationary state. We study the statistics of these rare events both through repeated brute force simulations and by using established mathematical/computational tools exploiting the right-hand-side of the identified SDE. We demonstrate that such a collective SDE can also be identified (and the rare events computations also performed) in terms of data-driven coarse observables, obtained here via manifold learning techniques, in particular Diffusion Maps. The workflow of our study is straightforwardly applicable to other complex dynamics problems exhibiting tipping point dynamics.
Conversational Financial Information Retrieval Model (ConFIRM)
Choi, Stephen, Gazeley, William, Wong, Siu Ho, Li, Tingting
With the exponential growth in large language models (LLMs), leveraging their emergent properties for specialized domains like finance merits exploration. However, regulated fields such as finance pose unique constraints, requiring domain-optimized frameworks. We present ConFIRM, an LLM-based conversational financial information retrieval model tailored for query intent classification and knowledge base labeling. ConFIRM comprises two modules: 1) a method to synthesize finance domain-specific question-answer pairs, and 2) evaluation of parameter efficient fine-tuning approaches for the query classification task. We generate a dataset of over 4000 samples, assessing accuracy on a separate test set. ConFIRM achieved over 90% accuracy, essential for regulatory compliance. ConFIRM provides a data-efficient solution to extract precise query intent for financial dialog systems.