Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring.

Explaining stock predictions is generally a difficult task for traditional non-generative deep learning models, where explanations are limited to visualizing the attention weights on important texts. Today, Large Language Models (LLMs) present a solution to this problem, given their known capabilities to generate human-readable explanations for their decision-making process. However, the task of stock prediction remains challenging for LLMs, as it requires the ability to weigh the varying impacts of chaotic social texts on stock prices. The problem gets progressively harder with the introduction of the explanation component, which requires LLMs to explain verbally why certain factors are more important than the others. On the other hand, to fine-tune LLMs for such a task, one would need expert-annotated samples of explanation for every stock movement in the training set, which is expensive and impractical to scale. To tackle these issues, we propose our Summarize-Explain-Predict (SEP) framework, which utilizes a self-reflective agent and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to let a LLM teach itself how to generate explainable stock predictions in a fully autonomous manner. The reflective agent learns how to explain past stock movements through self-reasoning, while the PPO trainer trains the model to generate the most likely explanations from input texts. The training samples for the PPO trainer are also the responses generated during the reflective process, which eliminates the need for human annotators. Using our SEP framework, we fine-tune a LLM that can outperform both traditional deep-learning and LLM methods in prediction accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient for the stock classification task. To justify the generalization capability of our framework, we further test it on the portfolio construction task, and demonstrate its effectiveness through various portfolio metrics.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Racism and intolerance on social media contribute to a toxic online environment which may spill offline to foster hatred, and eventually lead to physical violence. That is the case with online antisemitism, the specific category of hatred considered in this study. Tracking antisemitic themes and their associated terminology over time in online discussions could help monitor the sentiments of their participants and their evolution, and possibly offer avenues for intervention that may prevent the escalation of hatred. Due to the large volume and constant evolution of online traffic, monitoring conversations manually is impractical. Instead, we propose an automated method that extracts antisemitic themes and terminology from extremist social media over time and captures their evolution. Since supervised learning would be too limited for such a task, we created an unsupervised online machine learning approach that uses large language models to assess the contextual similarity of posts. The method clusters similar posts together, dividing, and creating additional clusters over time when sub-themes emerge from existing ones or new themes appear. The antisemitic terminology used within each theme is extracted from the posts in each cluster. Our experiments show that our methodology outperforms existing baselines and demonstrates the kind of themes and sub-themes it discovers within antisemitic discourse along with their associated terminology. We believe that our approach will be useful for monitoring the evolution of all kinds of hatred beyond antisemitism on social platforms.

This research critically navigates the intricate landscape of AI deception, concentrating on deceptive behaviours of Large Language Models (LLMs). My objective is to elucidate this issue, examine the discourse surrounding it, and subsequently delve into its categorization and ramifications. The essay initiates with an evaluation of the AI Safety Summit 2023 (ASS) and introduction of LLMs, emphasising multidimensional biases that underlie their deceptive behaviours.The literature review covers four types of deception categorised: Strategic deception, Imitation, Sycophancy, and Unfaithful Reasoning, along with the social implications and risks they entail. Lastly, I take an evaluative stance on various aspects related to navigating the persistent challenges of the deceptive AI. This encompasses considerations of international collaborative governance, the reconfigured engagement of individuals with AI, proposal of practical adjustments, and specific elements of digital education.

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly capable and can now interact with tools (i.e., call functions), read documents, and recursively call themselves. As a result, these LLMs can now function autonomously as agents. With the rise in capabilities of these agents, recent work has speculated on how LLM agents would affect cybersecurity. However, not much is known about the offensive capabilities of LLM agents. In this work, we show that LLM agents can autonomously hack websites, performing tasks as complex as blind database schema extraction and SQL injections without human feedback. Importantly, the agent does not need to know the vulnerability beforehand. This capability is uniquely enabled by frontier models that are highly capable of tool use and leveraging extended context. Namely, we show that GPT-4 is capable of such hacks, but existing open-source models are not. Finally, we show that GPT-4 is capable of autonomously finding vulnerabilities in websites in the wild. Our findings raise questions about the widespread deployment of LLMs.

As machine learning applications proliferate, we need an understanding of their potential for harm. However, current fairness metrics are rarely grounded in human psychological experiences of harm. Drawing on the social psychology of stereotypes, we use a case study of gender stereotypes in image search to examine how people react to machine learning errors. First, we use survey studies to show that not all machine learning errors reflect stereotypes nor are equally harmful. Then, in experimental studies we randomly expose participants to stereotype-reinforcing, -violating, and -neutral machine learning errors. We find stereotype-reinforcing errors induce more experientially (i.e., subjectively) harmful experiences, while having minimal changes to cognitive beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors. This experiential harm impacts women more than men. However, certain stereotype-violating errors are more experientially harmful for men, potentially due to perceived threats to masculinity. We conclude that harm cannot be the sole guide in fairness mitigation, and propose a nuanced perspective depending on who is experiencing what harm and why.

We explore the AI2050 "hard problems" that block the promise of AI and cause AI risks: (1) developing general capabilities of the systems; (2) assuring the performance of AI systems and their training processes; (3) aligning system goals with human goals; (4) enabling great applications of AI in real life; (5) addressing economic disruptions; (6) ensuring the participation of all; (7) at the same time ensuring socially responsible deployment; (8) addressing any geopolitical disruptions that AI causes; (9) promoting sound governance of the technology; and (10) managing the philosophical disruptions for humans living in the age of AI. For each problem, we outline the area, identify significant recent work, and suggest ways forward. [Note: this paper reviews literature through January 2023.]

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly impacted the field of information extraction, with Large Language Models (LLMs) playing a pivotal role in extracting structured information from unstructured text. This paper explores the challenges and limitations of current methodologies in structured entity extraction and introduces a novel approach to address these issues. We contribute to the field by first introducing and formalizing the task of Structured Entity Extraction (SEE), followed by proposing Approximate Entity Set OverlaP (AESOP) Metric designed to appropriately assess model performance on this task. Later, we propose a new model that harnesses the power of LLMs for enhanced effectiveness and efficiency through decomposing the entire extraction task into multiple stages. Quantitative evaluation and human side-by-side evaluation confirm that our model outperforms baselines, offering promising directions for future advancements in structured entity extraction.

Domain generalization (DG) is an important problem that learns a model that can generalize to unseen test domains leveraging one or more source domains, under the assumption of shared label spaces. However, most DG methods assume access to abundant source data in the target label space, a requirement that proves overly stringent for numerous real-world applications, where acquiring the same label space as the target task is prohibitively expensive. For this setting, we tackle the multimodal version of the unsupervised domain generalization (UDG) problem, which uses a large task-agnostic unlabeled source dataset, such as LAION-2B during finetuning. Our framework does not explicitly assume any relationship between the source dataset and target task. Instead, it relies only on the premise that the source dataset can be efficiently searched in a joint vision-language space. For this multimodal UDG setting, we propose a novel method to build a small ($<$100K) subset of the source data in three simple steps: (1) diversified retrieval using label names as queries, (2) rank pseudo-labeling, and (3) clustering to find representative samples. To demonstrate the value of studying the multimodal UDG problem, we compare our results against state-of-the-art source-free DG and zero-shot (ZS) methods on their respective benchmarks and show up to 10% improvement in accuracy on 20 diverse target datasets. Additionally, our multi-stage dataset construction method achieves 3% improvement on average over nearest neighbors retrieval. Code is available: https://github.com/Chris210634/mudg