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FMPAF: How Do Fed Chairs Affect the Financial Market? A Fine-grained Monetary Policy Analysis Framework on Their Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The effectiveness of central bank communication is a crucial aspect of monetary policy transmission. While recent research has examined the influence of policy communication by the chairs of the Federal Reserve on various financial variables, much of the literature relies on rule-based or dictionary-based methods in parsing the language of the chairs, leaving nuanced information about policy stance contained in nonverbal emotion out of the analysis. In the current study, we propose the Fine-Grained Monetary Policy Analysis Framework (FMPAF), a novel approach that integrates large language models (LLMs) with regression analysis to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the press-conference communications of chairs of the Federal Reserve on financial markets. We conduct extensive comparisons of model performance under different levels of granularity, modalities, and communication scenarios. Based on our preferred specification, a one-unit increase in the sentiment score is associated with an increase of the price of S\&P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund by approximately 500 basis points, a 15-basis-point decrease in the policy interest rate, while not leading to a significant response in exchange rates.


Dynamics of Polarization Under Normative Institutions and Opinion Expression Stewarding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although there is mounting empirical evidence for the increase in affective polarization, few mechanistic models can explain its emergence at the population level. The question of how such a phenomenon can emerge from divergent opinions of a population on an ideological issue is still an open issue. In this paper, we establish that human normativity, that is, individual expression of normative opinions based on beliefs about the population, can lead to population-level polarization when ideological institutions distort beliefs in accordance with their objective of moving expressed opinion to one extreme. Using a game-theoretic model, we establish that individuals with more extreme opinions will have more extreme rhetoric and higher misperceptions about their outgroup members. Our model also shows that when social recommendation systems mediate institutional signals, we can observe the formation of different institutional communities, each with its unique community structure and characteristics. Using the model, we identify practical strategies platforms can implement, such as reducing exposure to signals from ideological institutions and a tailored approach to content moderation, both of which can rectify the affective polarization problem within its purview.


IndicLLMSuite: A Blueprint for Creating Pre-training and Fine-Tuning Datasets for Indian Languages

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the considerable advancements in English LLMs, the progress in building comparable models for other languages has been hindered due to the scarcity of tailored resources. Our work aims to bridge this divide by introducing an expansive suite of resources specifically designed for the development of Indic LLMs, covering 22 languages, containing a total of 251B tokens and 74.8M instruction-response pairs. Recognizing the importance of both data quality and quantity, our approach combines highly curated manually verified data, unverified yet valuable data, and synthetic data. We build a clean, open-source pipeline for curating pre-training data from diverse sources, including websites, PDFs, and videos, incorporating best practices for crawling, cleaning, flagging, and deduplication. For instruction-fine tuning, we amalgamate existing Indic datasets, translate/transliterate English datasets into Indian languages, and utilize LLaMa2 and Mixtral models to create conversations grounded in articles from Indian Wikipedia and Wikihow. Additionally, we address toxicity alignment by generating toxic prompts for multiple scenarios and then generate non-toxic responses by feeding these toxic prompts to an aligned LLaMa2 model. We hope that the datasets, tools, and resources released as a part of this work will not only propel the research and development of Indic LLMs but also establish an open-source blueprint for extending such efforts to other languages. The data and other artifacts created as part of this work are released with permissive licenses.


Using Hallucinations to Bypass GPT4's Filter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are initially trained on vast amounts of data, then fine-tuned using reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF); this also serves to teach the LLM to provide appropriate and safe responses. In this paper, we present a novel method to manipulate the fine-tuned version into reverting to its pre-RLHF behavior, effectively erasing the model's filters; the exploit currently works for GPT4, Claude Sonnet, and (to some extent) for Inflection-2.5. Unlike other jailbreaks (for example, the popular "Do Anything Now" (DAN) ), our method does not rely on instructing the LLM to override its RLHF policy; hence, simply modifying the RLHF process is unlikely to address it. Instead, we induce a hallucination involving reversed text during which the model reverts to a word bucket, effectively pausing the model's filter. We believe that our exploit presents a fundamental vulnerability in LLMs currently unaddressed, as well as an opportunity to better understand the inner workings of LLMs during hallucinations.


MACE: Mass Concept Erasure in Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid expansion of large-scale text-to-image diffusion models has raised growing concerns regarding their potential misuse in creating harmful or misleading content. In this paper, we introduce MACE, a finetuning framework for the task of mass concept erasure. This task aims to prevent models from generating images that embody unwanted concepts when prompted. Existing concept erasure methods are typically restricted to handling fewer than five concepts simultaneously and struggle to find a balance between erasing concept synonyms (generality) and maintaining unrelated concepts (specificity). In contrast, MACE differs by successfully scaling the erasure scope up to 100 concepts and by achieving an effective balance between generality and specificity. This is achieved by leveraging closed-form cross-attention refinement along with LoRA finetuning, collectively eliminating the information of undesirable concepts. Furthermore, MACE integrates multiple LoRAs without mutual interference. We conduct extensive evaluations of MACE against prior methods across four different tasks: object erasure, celebrity erasure, explicit content erasure, and artistic style erasure. Our results reveal that MACE surpasses prior methods in all evaluated tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/Shilin-LU/MACE.


The Obscene Energy Demands of A.I.

The New Yorker

In 2016, Alex de Vries read somewhere that a single bitcoin transaction consumes as much energy as the average American household uses in a day. At the time, de Vries, who is Dutch, was working at a consulting firm. In his spare time, he wrote a blog, called Digiconomist, about the risks of investing in cryptocurrency. He found the energy-use figure disturbing. "I was, like, O.K., that's a massive amount, and why is no one talking about it?" he told me recently over Zoom.


The Lie Detectives: Trump, US politics and the disinformation damage done

The Guardian

Most of Joe Biden's past supporters see him as too old. An 81-year-old president with an unsteady step is a turn-off. But Donald Trump, Biden's malignant, 77-year-old predecessor, vows to be a dictator for "a day", calls for suspending the constitution and threatens Nato. "Russia, if you're listening", his infamous 2016 shout-out to Vladimir Putin, still haunts us eight years on. Democracy is on the ballot again.


Why Google's AI tool was slammed for showing images of people of colour

Al Jazeera

America's founding fathers depicted as Black women and Ancient Greek warriors as Asian women and men – this was the world reimagined by Google's generative AI tool, Gemini, in late February. The launch of the new image generation feature sent social media platforms into a flurry of intrigue and confusion. When users entered any prompts to create AI-generated images of people, Gemini was largely showing them results featuring people of colour – whether appropriate or not. X users shared laughs while repeatedly trying to generate images of white people on Gemini and failing to do so. While some instances were deemed humorous online, others, such as images of brown people wearing World War II Nazi uniforms with swastikas on them, prompted outrage, prompting Google to temporarily disable the tool.


UniSparse: An Intermediate Language for General Sparse Format Customization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ongoing trend of hardware specialization has led to a growing use of custom data formats when processing sparse workloads, which are typically memory-bound. These formats facilitate optimized software/hardware implementations by utilizing sparsity pattern- or target-aware data structures and layouts to enhance memory access latency and bandwidth utilization. However, existing sparse tensor programming models and compilers offer little or no support for productively customizing the sparse formats. Additionally, because these frameworks represent formats using a limited set of per-dimension attributes, they lack the flexibility to accommodate numerous new variations of custom sparse data structures and layouts. To overcome this deficiency, we propose UniSparse, an intermediate language that provides a unified abstraction for representing and customizing sparse formats. Unlike the existing attribute-based frameworks, UniSparse decouples the logical representation of the sparse tensor (i.e., the data structure) from its low-level memory layout, enabling the customization of both. As a result, a rich set of format customizations can be succinctly expressed in a small set of well-defined query, mutation, and layout primitives. We also develop a compiler leveraging the MLIR infrastructure, which supports adaptive customization of formats, and automatic code generation of format conversion and compute operations for heterogeneous architectures. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through experiments running commonly-used sparse linear algebra operations with specialized formats on multiple different hardware targets, including an Intel CPU, an NVIDIA GPU, an AMD Xilinx FPGA, and a simulated processing-in-memory (PIM) device.


Hard-label based Small Query Black-box Adversarial Attack

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the hard label based black box adversarial attack setting which solely observes predicted classes from the target model. Most of the attack methods in this setting suffer from impractical number of queries required to achieve a successful attack. One approach to tackle this drawback is utilising the adversarial transferability between white box surrogate models and black box target model. However, the majority of the methods adopting this approach are soft label based to take the full advantage of zeroth order optimisation. Unlike mainstream methods, we propose a new practical setting of hard label based attack with an optimisation process guided by a pretrained surrogate model. Experiments show the proposed method significantly improves the query efficiency of the hard label based black-box attack across various target model architectures. We find the proposed method achieves approximately 5 times higher attack success rate compared to the benchmarks, especially at the small query budgets as 100 and 250.