Government
Advancing Real-time Pandemic Forecasting Using Large Language Models: A COVID-19 Case Study
Du, Hongru, Zhao, Jianan, Zhao, Yang, Xu, Shaochong, Lin, Xihong, Chen, Yiran, Gardner, Lauren M., Yang, Hao Frank
Forecasting the short-term spread of an ongoing disease outbreak is a formidable challenge due to the complexity of contributing factors, some of which can be characterized through interlinked, multi-modality variables such as epidemiological time series data, viral biology, population demographics, and the intersection of public policy and human behavior. Existing forecasting model frameworks struggle with the multifaceted nature of relevant data and robust results translation, which hinders their performances and the provision of actionable insights for public health decision-makers. Our work introduces PandemicLLM, a novel framework with multi-modal Large Language Models (LLMs) that reformulates real-time forecasting of disease spread as a text reasoning problem, with the ability to incorporate real-time, complex, non-numerical information that previously unattainable in traditional forecasting models. This approach, through a unique AI-human cooperative prompt design and time series representation learning, encodes multi-modal data for LLMs. The model is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, and trained to utilize textual public health policies, genomic surveillance, spatial, and epidemiological time series data, and is subsequently tested across all 50 states of the U.S. Empirically, PandemicLLM is shown to be a high-performing pandemic forecasting framework that effectively captures the impact of emerging variants and can provide timely and accurate predictions. The proposed PandemicLLM opens avenues for incorporating various pandemic-related data in heterogeneous formats and exhibits performance benefits over existing models. This study illuminates the potential of adapting LLMs and representation learning to enhance pandemic forecasting, illustrating how AI innovations can strengthen pandemic responses and crisis management in the future.
Charles Translator: A Machine Translation System between Ukrainian and Czech
Popel, Martin, Polรกkovรก, Lucie, Novรกk, Michal, Helcl, Jindลich, Libovickรฝ, Jindลich, Straลรกk, Pavel, Krabaฤ, Tomรกลก, Hlavรกฤovรก, Jaroslava, Anisimova, Mariia, Chlaลovรก, Tereza
We present Charles Translator, a machine translation system between Ukrainian and Czech, developed as part of a society-wide effort to mitigate the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on individuals and society. The system was developed in the spring of 2022 with the help of many language data providers in order to quickly meet the demand for such a service, which was not available at the time in the required quality. The translator was later implemented as an online web interface and as an Android app with speech input, both featuring Cyrillic-Latin script transliteration. The system translates directly, compared to other available systems that use English as a pivot, and thus take advantage of the typological similarity of the two languages. It uses the block back-translation method, which allows for efficient use of monolingual training data. The paper describes the development process, including data collection and implementation, evaluation, mentions several use cases, and outlines possibilities for the further development of the system for educational purposes.
Incorporating Explanations into Human-Machine Interfaces for Trust and Situation Awareness in Autonomous Vehicles
Atakishiyev, Shahin, Salameh, Mohammad, Goebel, Randy
Autonomous vehicles often make complex decisions via machine learning-based predictive models applied to collected sensor data. While this combination of methods provides a foundation for real-time actions, self-driving behavior primarily remains opaque to end users. In this sense, explainability of real-time decisions is a crucial and natural requirement for building trust in autonomous vehicles. Moreover, as autonomous vehicles still cause serious traffic accidents for various reasons, timely conveyance of upcoming hazards to road users can help improve scene understanding and prevent potential risks. Hence, there is also a need to supply autonomous vehicles with user-friendly interfaces for effective human-machine teaming. Motivated by this problem, we study the role of explainable AI and human-machine interface jointly in building trust in vehicle autonomy. We first present a broad context of the explanatory human-machine systems with the "3W1H" (what, whom, when, how) approach. Based on these findings, we present a situation awareness framework for calibrating users' trust in self-driving behavior. Finally, we perform an experiment on our framework, conduct a user study on it, and validate the empirical findings with hypothesis testing.
Meta4XNLI: A Crosslingual Parallel Corpus for Metaphor Detection and Interpretation
Sanchez-Bayona, Elisa, Agerri, Rodrigo
According to (Lakoff and Johnson 1980), we can establish a distinction between conceptual metaphors, cognitive mappings that arise from the association between source and target domains, and linguistic metaphors, the expression of these mappings through language. The pervasiveness of metaphors in our daily speech makes it fundamental for language models to be able to process them accordingly, in order to achieve a satisfactory interaction between users and these tools. In addition, metaphor processing may have implications for other Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks such as Machine Translation (Mao, Lin, and Guerin 2018; Schรคffner 2004; Shutova, Teufel, and Korhonen 2013), political discourse analysis (Charteris-Black 2011; Prabhakaran, Rei, and Shutova 2021; Rodrรญguez et al. 2023) or hate speech (Lemmens, Markov, and Daelemans 2021), among others. Since in this work we study metaphor occurrence in natural language sentences, we will focus on linguistic metaphors only. The most explored task so far is metaphor detection or identification, approached as a sequence labeling task grounded on different theoretical proposals (Wilks 1975, 1978; Searle 1979; Black 1962). The methodology of most widespread use currently are the MIPVU guidelines (Steen et al. 2010), which rely on the mismatch between the basic and contextual meaning of a potential metaphor. The application of this procedure resulted in the publication of the referential dataset VUAM.
Multi-granular Adversarial Attacks against Black-box Neural Ranking Models
Liu, Yu-An, Zhang, Ruqing, Guo, Jiafeng, de Rijke, Maarten, Fan, Yixing, Cheng, Xueqi
Adversarial ranking attacks have gained increasing attention due to their success in probing vulnerabilities, and, hence, enhancing the robustness, of neural ranking models. Conventional attack methods employ perturbations at a single granularity, e.g., word or sentence level, to target documents. However, limiting perturbations to a single level of granularity may reduce the flexibility of adversarial examples, thereby diminishing the potential threat of the attack. Therefore, we focus on generating high-quality adversarial examples by incorporating multi-granular perturbations. Achieving this objective involves tackling a combinatorial explosion problem, which requires identifying an optimal combination of perturbations across all possible levels of granularity, positions, and textual pieces. To address this challenge, we transform the multi-granular adversarial attack into a sequential decision-making process, where perturbations in the next attack step build on the perturbed document in the current attack step. Since the attack process can only access the final state without direct intermediate signals, we use reinforcement learning to perform multi-granular attacks. During the reinforcement learning process, two agents work cooperatively to identify multi-granular vulnerabilities as attack targets and organize perturbation candidates into a final perturbation sequence. Experimental results show that our attack method surpasses prevailing baselines in both attack effectiveness and imperceptibility.
Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach
Sun, Yixuan, Sowunmi, Ololade, Egele, Romain, Narayanan, Sri Hari Krishna, Van Roekel, Luke, Balaprakash, Prasanna
Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage the advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization in DeepHyper, a scalable hyperparameter optimization software, to streamline the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The experimental results show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNOs in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.
Spain on high alert amid ISIS threats as European leaders warn of conflict with Russia: 'prewar era'
Fox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot reports on the state of the suspected terrorists in Russia and the Kremlin's'spin machine.' Spain's Ministry of the Interior, on Tuesday, announced that it is on high alert and has activated all alert and response systems to prevent jihadist attacks during the Champions League quarterfinal matches scheduled to take place in Madrid on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to reports. On Tuesday, Real Madrid will take on Manchester City, while on Wednesday, Atlรฉtico Madrid will play against Borussia Dortmund. As the quarterfinals approach, threats have been made by the Islamic State terrorist network, which has threatened drone attacks on the soccer tournament, a reminder of the resurgence of the network after several deadly attacks earlier this year in places like Iran and Moscow. The ministry, led by Fernando Grand-Marlask, said the "State Security Forces and Bodies have all their early warning and protection systems activated, as well as their response systems ready" in response to preventing a terrorist attack, according to Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia.
New bill would force AI companies to reveal use of copyrighted art
The bill would need companies to file such documents at least 30 days before publicly debuting their AI tools, or face a financial penalty. Such datasets encompass billions of lines of text and images or millions of hours of music and movies. "AI has the disruptive potential of changing our economy, our political system, and our day-to-day lives. We must balance the immense potential of AI with the crucial need for ethical guidelines and protections," Schiff said in a statement. Schiff's bill, which was first reported by Billboard, has received the support of numerous entertainment industry organizations and unions, including the Recording Industry Association of America, Professional Photographers of America, Directors Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists.
Meta's Nick Clegg plays down AI's threat to global democracy
Generative AI is overblown as an election risk, according to Meta's Nick Clegg, who claims the technology is more useful for defending democracy than attacking it. Speaking at the Meta AI Day event in London on Tuesday, the social network's global affairs chief said that the evidence from major elections that have already been run this year around the world is that technology such as large language models, image and video generators, and speech synthesis tools aren't being used in practice to subvert democracy. "It is right that we should be alert and we should be vigilant," Clegg said. "But of the major elections which have taken place already this year, in Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, it is striking how little these tools have been used in a systematic basis to really try to subvert and disrupt the elections. "I would urge everyone to think of AI as a sword, not just a shield, when it comes to bad content.
The Download: how China plans to regulate AI
The way China regulates its tech industry can seem highly unpredictable. The government can celebrate the achievements of Chinese tech companies one day and then turn against them the next. But there are patterns in how China approaches regulating tech, argues Angela Huyue Zhang, a law professor at Hong Kong University and author of the new book High Wire: How China Regulates Big Tech and Governs Its Economy. Chinese policies almost always follow a three-phase progression: a lax approach where companies are given relative flexibility to expand and compete, sudden harsh crackdowns that slash profits, and eventually a new loosening of restrictions. Zeyi Yang, our China reporter, recently spoke with Zhang about her new book and how to apply her insights to China's tech industry, including significant new sectors like artificial intelligence.