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All-in-one simulation-based inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method -- the Simformer -- which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.


U.S. Intercepts Dozens of Iranian Drones and Missiles Aimed at Israel

NYT > Middle East

This year, the U.S. military carried out strikes against Iranian forces and allied militias in Syria and Iraq in response to a drone attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers. And in 2020, the United States killed a top Iranian commander, Maj. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that Britain had helped defend Israel against the Iranian attack, saying that Britain's air force had shot down "a number of Iranian attack drones" and would now work with allies to de-escalate tensions. "What we now need is for calm heads to prevail," Mr. Sunak told the BBC on Sunday. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, Israel's chief military spokesman, said that Israel had intercepted most of the 200 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles launched by Iran with "some assistance" from its allies.


Iran Attacks Israel: What We Know

NYT > Middle East

Iran launched a large aerial attack on Israel and the territory it controls starting late on Saturday, firing at least 300 drones and missiles. It is the first such direct attack launched from Iranian territory after decades of shadow warfare between the two countries. The assault was in response to a recent strike on a building in the Iranian Embassy complex in Syria that killed several of Iran's top commanders. Here's a look at what we know about the Iranian attack this weekend and its implications: Air raid sirens sounded in Israel and the West Bank overnight, signaling the start of an attack that had been anticipated for days. In the event, almost all of the missiles and drones were intercepted, the Israeli military said on Sunday.


Israel's past defiance in spotlight as US calls for Iran attack restraint

Al Jazeera

Washington, DC โ€“ The response from US President Joe Biden's administration to Iran's historic missile and drone attack on Israel has been two-fold: Washington has re-upped its pledge to always stand by its "ironclad" ally Israel, while also appealing to the government of Benjamin Netanyahu not to take further action that could drag the region into wider war. The days ahead will show if those two options are compatible, or if the two governments' priorities are on collision course, analysts told Al Jazeera. In the short term, the Iranian attack is a coup for both Israel and its backers in the US: From their perspective, it offers renewed justification for military support to Israel while weakening the world's focus on alleged abuses committed in Gaza in seven months of war, according to Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute. But defiance from Netanyahu to US calls for restraint could find the Biden administration further hamstrung by its political and ideological commitments to Israel, which could eventually drag Washington into a wider war, he added. "The Israelis have been told by Biden to take this as a win and stop here," Parsi told Al Jazeera.


Sen. Fetterman breaks with President Biden on US response to Iran attacks: 'We should have Israel's back'

FOX News

Sen. Fetterman said he disagreed with President Biden's decision to keep the U.S. out of any offensive response to the Iran attacks on Sunday during an interview with CNN. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said he didn't agree with President Biden on his stance that the U.S. wouldn't join in an offensive operation against Iran during an interview on Sunday, saying he would never "capitulate to the fringe" of his party. CNN host Jake Tapper asked Fetterman to respond to reports that Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. wouldn't participate in any offensive operations against Iran during a conversation on Saturday. "Do you think that's the right call or should direct U.S. military action, as some of your colleagues in the Senate are suggesting, should that be on the table?" he asked. "I don't agree with that, I just think we should follow and have Israel's back in the situation. I don't agree with the president. I'm proud to stand with him and campaign for him and vote for him," he responded.


Jordan Says It Shot Down Iranian Drones As Act of Self-Defense

NYT > Middle East

The response by Israel and other nations to Iran's aerial attack kept the majority of its drones and missiles from landing in Israel, ensuring they caused only light damage and a handful of injuries, Israeli officials said. An unexpected -- and for some, unwelcome -- actor played a role in Israel's defense: Jordan, the Arab kingdom next door. Jordan fought four wars with Israel between 1948 and 1973 before signing a peace treaty in 1994. Its population is heavily made up of Palestinians, and their descendants, who were barred from returning to their homes by Israel after the 1948 war that followed the establishment of the Jewish state. Jordan's involvement was welcomed by older Israelis who remembered when Jordan would shell Israel.


'True Promise': Why and how did Iran launch a historic attack on Israel?

Al Jazeera

Tehran, Iran โ€“ Iran's use of hundreds of drones and missiles to directly target Israel on Saturday night and Sunday morning set a number of major political and military precedents. It was the single largest drone attack ever carried out by any country, and it was the first time Iran directly attacked Israel after almost a half-century of being archenemies. Here's a look at what political, military and economic considerations Tehran might have factored in while deciding on the attack that has amplified fears of a larger regional war and that could also affect the direction of Israel's war on Gaza. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dubbed the operation "True Promise" to show that top leaders in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intend to make good on their vows of "punishment" for attacks by Israel and others. The attack was a direct retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven IRGC members, including two generals in charge of leading operations in Syria and Lebanon, along with six other people.


All eyes on Israel's response to Iranian drone and missile attacks

BBC News

It could listen to its neighbours in the region and exercise what is known as "strategic patience", holding off from responding in kind and instead continuing to target Iran's proxy allies in the region such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or military supply sites in Syria, as it has been doing for years.


Hamas backs Iran after retaliatory missile, drone attacks on Israel

Al Jazeera

The Palestinian Hamas group has expressed support for Iran after it launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for a deadly assault on its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus. In a statement on Saturday, Hamas, which governs the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, said it affirmed "the natural right" of countries and peoples in the Middle East to defend themselves "in the face of Zionist aggressions". "The military operation carried out by Iran against the Zionist entity is a natural right and a due response to the crime of targeting the consulate in Damascus," it said. The Iranian salvo, fired late on Saturday night, consisted of more than 300 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones, according to the Israeli military. Some 99 percent of the projectiles were intercepted, an Israeli spokesman said, with help from France, the United Kingdom and the United States.


Europe's AI 'champion' sets sights on tech giants in U.S.

The Japan Times

Arthur Mensch, tall and lean with a flop of unkempt hair, arrived for a speech last month at a sprawling tech hub in Paris wearing jeans and carrying a bicycle helmet. He had an unassuming look for a person European officials are counting on to help propel the region into a high-stakes match with the United States and China over artificial intelligence. Mensch, 31, is the CEO and a founder of Mistral, considered by many to be one of the most promising challengers to OpenAI and Google. "You have become the poster child for AI in France," Matt Clifford, a British investor, told him onstage. A lot is riding on Mensch, whose company has shot into the spotlight just a year after he founded it in Paris with two college friends.