Despite the recent observation that large language models (LLMs) can store substantial factual knowledge, there is a limited understanding of the mechanisms of how they acquire factual knowledge through pretraining. This work addresses this gap by studying how LLMs acquire factual knowledge during pretraining. The findings reveal several important insights into the dynamics of factual knowledge acquisition during pretraining. First, counterintuitively, we observe that pretraining on more data shows no significant improvement in the model's capability to acquire and maintain factual knowledge. Next, there is a power-law relationship between training steps and forgetting of memorization and generalization of factual knowledge, and LLMs trained with duplicated training data exhibit faster forgetting. Third, training LLMs with larger batch sizes can enhance the models' robustness to forgetting. Overall, our observations suggest that factual knowledge acquisition in LLM pretraining occurs by progressively increasing the probability of factual knowledge presented in the pretraining data at each step. However, this increase is diluted by subsequent forgetting. Based on this interpretation, we demonstrate that we can provide plausible explanations for recently observed behaviors of LLMs, such as the poor performance of LLMs on long-tail knowledge and the benefits of deduplicating the pretraining corpus.

"Jailbreak" is a major safety concern of Large Language Models (LLMs), which occurs when malicious prompts lead LLMs to produce harmful outputs, raising issues about the reliability and safety of LLMs. Therefore, an effective evaluation of jailbreaks is very crucial to develop its mitigation strategies. However, our research reveals that many jailbreaks identified by current evaluations may actually be hallucinations-erroneous outputs that are mistaken for genuine safety breaches. This finding suggests that some perceived vulnerabilities might not represent actual threats, indicating a need for more precise red teaming benchmarks. To address this problem, we propose the $\textbf{B}$enchmark for reli$\textbf{AB}$ilit$\textbf{Y}$ and jail$\textbf{B}$reak ha$\textbf{L}$l$\textbf{U}$cination $\textbf{E}$valuation (BabyBLUE). BabyBLUE introduces a specialized validation framework including various evaluators to enhance existing jailbreak benchmarks, ensuring outputs are useful malicious instructions. Additionally, BabyBLUE presents a new dataset as an augmentation to the existing red teaming benchmarks, specifically addressing hallucinations in jailbreaks, aiming to evaluate the true potential of jailbroken LLM outputs to cause harm to human society.

This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets containing posts from X (formerly Twitter) which capture economy-related narratives (Data will be shared upon paper acceptance). Employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we extract and summarize narratives from the tweets. We test their predictive power for $\textit{macroeconomic}$ forecasting by incorporating the tweets' or the extracted narratives' representations in downstream financial prediction tasks. Our work highlights the challenges in improving macroeconomic models with narrative data, paving the way for the research community to realistically address this important challenge. From a scientific perspective, our investigation offers valuable insights and NLP tools for narrative extraction and summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs), contributing to future research on the role of narratives in economics.

Accurate traffic prediction is vital for effective traffic management during hurricane evacuation. This paper proposes a predictive modeling system that integrates Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to capture both long-term congestion patterns and short-term speed patterns. Leveraging various input variables, including archived traffic data, spatial-temporal road network information, and hurricane forecast data, the framework is designed to address challenges posed by heterogeneous human behaviors, limited evacuation data, and hurricane event uncertainties. Deployed in a real-world traffic prediction system in Louisiana, the model achieved an 82% accuracy in predicting long-term congestion states over a 6-hour period during a 7-day hurricane-impacted duration. The short-term speed prediction model exhibited Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) ranging from 7% to 13% across evacuation horizons from 1 to 6 hours. Evaluation results underscore the model's potential to enhance traffic management during hurricane evacuations, and real-world deployment highlights its adaptability and scalability in diverse hurricane scenarios within extensive transportation networks.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human-crowd forecasting-tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of 12 LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to those of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our preregistered main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark, and is not statistically different from the human crowd. We also observe a set of human-like biases in machine responses, such as an acquiescence effect and a tendency to favour round numbers. In Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%, though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of the human crowd: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation.

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

Social media has emerged as a cornerstone of social movements, wielding significant influence in driving societal change. Simulating the response of the public and forecasting the potential impact has become increasingly important. However, existing methods for simulating such phenomena encounter challenges concerning their efficacy and efficiency in capturing the behaviors of social movement participants. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid framework HiSim for social media user simulation, wherein users are categorized into two types. Core users are driven by Large Language Models, while numerous ordinary users are modeled by deductive agent-based models. We further construct a Twitter-like environment to replicate their response dynamics following trigger events. Subsequently, we develop a multi-faceted benchmark SoMoSiMu-Bench for evaluation and conduct comprehensive experiments across real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our method.

Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as a powerful tool in avian bioacoustics to assess environmental health. To maximize the potential of cost-effective and minimal-invasive passive acoustic monitoring (PAM), DL models must analyze bird vocalizations across a wide range of species and environmental conditions. However, data fragmentation challenges a comprehensive evaluation of generalization performance. Therefore, we introduce the BirdSet dataset, comprising approximately 520,000 global bird recordings for training and over 400 hours of PAM recordings for testing. Our benchmark offers baselines for several DL models to enhance comparability and consolidate research across studies, along with code implementations that include comprehensive training and evaluation protocols.

Reference-based metrics such as BLEU and BERTScore are widely used to evaluate question generation (QG). In this study, on QG benchmarks such as SQuAD and HotpotQA, we find that using human-written references cannot guarantee the effectiveness of the reference-based metrics. Most QG benchmarks have only one reference; we replicated the annotation process and collect another reference. A good metric was expected to grade a human-validated question no worse than generated questions. However, the results of reference-based metrics on our newly collected reference disproved the metrics themselves. We propose a reference-free metric consisted of multi-dimensional criteria such as naturalness, answerability, and complexity, utilizing large language models. These criteria are not constrained to the syntactic or semantic of a single reference question, and the metric does not require a diverse set of references. Experiments reveal that our metric accurately distinguishes between high-quality questions and flawed ones, and achieves state-of-the-art alignment with human judgment.

Recent advancements in general-purpose AI have highlighted the importance of guiding AI systems towards the intended goals, ethical principles, and values of individuals and groups, a concept broadly recognized as alignment. However, the lack of clarified definitions and scopes of human-AI alignment poses a significant obstacle, hampering collaborative efforts across research domains to achieve this alignment. In particular, ML- and philosophy-oriented alignment research often views AI alignment as a static, unidirectional process (i.e., aiming to ensure that AI systems' objectives match humans) rather than an ongoing, mutual alignment problem [429]. This perspective largely neglects the long-term interaction and dynamic changes of alignment. To understand these gaps, we introduce a systematic review of over 400 papers published between 2019 and January 2024, spanning multiple domains such as Human-Computer Interaction (HCI), Natural Language Processing (NLP), Machine Learning (ML), and others. We characterize, define and scope human-AI alignment. From this, we present a conceptual framework of "Bidirectional Human-AI Alignment" to organize the literature from a human-centered perspective. This framework encompasses both 1) conventional studies of aligning AI to humans that ensures AI produces the intended outcomes determined by humans, and 2) a proposed concept of aligning humans to AI, which aims to help individuals and society adjust to AI advancements both cognitively and behaviorally. Additionally, we articulate the key findings derived from literature analysis, including discussions about human values, interaction techniques, and evaluations. To pave the way for future studies, we envision three key challenges for future directions and propose examples of potential future solutions.