Government
Opportunities of Reinforcement Learning in South Africa's Just Transition
Formanek, Claude, Tilbury, Callum Rhys, Shock, Jonathan P.
South Africa stands at a crucial juncture, grappling with interwoven socio-economic challenges such as poverty, inequality, unemployment, and the looming climate crisis. The government's Just Transition framework aims to enhance climate resilience, achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and promote social inclusion and poverty eradication. According to the Presidential Commission on the Fourth Industrial Revolution, artificial intelligence technologies offer significant promise in addressing these challenges. This paper explores the overlooked potential of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in supporting South Africa's Just Transition. It examines how RL can enhance agriculture and land-use practices, manage complex, decentralised energy networks, and optimise transportation and logistics, thereby playing a critical role in achieving a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon future for all South Africans. We provide a roadmap as to how other researchers in the field may be able to contribute to these pressing problems.
Generative Discrete Event Process Simulation for Hidden Markov Models to Predict Competitor Time-to-Market
Santhi, Nandakishore, Eidenbenz, Stephan, Key, Brian, Tompkins, George
We study the challenge of predicting the time at which a competitor product, such as a novel high-capacity EV battery or a new car model, will be available to customers; as new information is obtained, this time-to-market estimate is revised. Our scenario is as follows: We assume that the product is under development at a Firm B, which is a competitor to Firm A; as they are in the same industry, Firm A has a relatively good understanding of the processes and steps required to produce the product. While Firm B tries to keep its activities hidden (think of stealth-mode for start-ups), Firm A is nevertheless able to gain periodic insights by observing what type of resources Firm B is using. We show how Firm A can build a model that predicts when Firm B will be ready to sell its product; the model leverages knowledge of the underlying processes and required resources to build a Parallel Discrete Simulation (PDES)-based process model that it then uses as a generative model to train a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We study the question of how many resource observations Firm A requires in order to accurately assess the current state of development at Firm B. In order to gain general insights into the capabilities of this approach, we study the effect of different process graph densities, different densities of the resource-activity maps, etc., and also scaling properties as we increase the number resource counts. We find that in most cases, the HMM achieves a prediction accuracy of 70 to 80 percent after 20 (daily) observations of a production process that lasts 150 days on average and we characterize the effects of different problem instance densities on this prediction accuracy. Our results give insight into the level of market knowledge required for accurate and early time-to-market prediction.
Delegating Responsibilities to Intelligent Autonomous Systems: Challenges and Benefits
Dodig-Crnkovic, Gordana, Basti, Gianfranco, Holstein, Tobias
As AI systems increasingly operate with autonomy and adaptability, the traditional boundaries of moral responsibility in techno-social systems are being challenged. This paper explores the evolving discourse on the delegation of responsibilities to intelligent autonomous agents and the ethical implications of such practices. Synthesizing recent developments in AI ethics, including concepts of distributed responsibility and ethical AI by design, the paper proposes a functionalist perspective as a framework. This perspective views moral responsibility not as an individual trait but as a role within a socio-technical system, distributed among human and artificial agents. As an example of 'AI ethical by design,' we present Basti and Vitiello's implementation. They suggest that AI can act as artificial moral agents by learning ethical guidelines and using Deontic Higher-Order Logic to assess decisions ethically. Motivated by the possible speed and scale beyond human supervision and ethical implications, the paper argues for 'AI ethical by design', while acknowledging the distributed, shared, and dynamic nature of responsibility. This functionalist approach offers a practical framework for navigating the complexities of AI ethics in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.
Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Economic Development
Pan, Yijian, Ma, Yongchang, Shen, Bolin, He, Linyang
The goal of our project is to use satellite data (including nighttime light data and remote sensing images) to give us some statistical estimation of the economic development level of a selected area (Singapore). Findings from the project could inform policymakers about areas needing intervention or support for economic development initiatives. Insights gained might aid in targeted policy formulation for infrastructure, agriculture, urban planning, or resource management.
Enhancing classroom teaching with LLMs and RAG
Mullins, Elizabeth A, Portillo, Adrian, Ruiz-Rohena, Kristalys, Piplai, Aritran
Large Language Models have become a valuable source of information for our daily inquiries. However, after training, its data source quickly becomes out-of-date, making RAG a useful tool for providing even more recent or pertinent data. In this work, we investigate how RAG pipelines, with the course materials serving as a data source, might help students in K-12 education. The initial research utilizes Reddit as a data source for up-to-date cybersecurity information. Chunk size is evaluated to determine the optimal amount of context needed to generate accurate answers. After running the experiment for different chunk sizes, answer correctness was evaluated using RAGAs with average answer correctness not exceeding 50 percent for any chunk size. This suggests that Reddit is not a good source to mine for data for questions about cybersecurity threats. The methodology was successful in evaluating the data source, which has implications for its use to evaluate educational resources for effectiveness.
Balancing Transparency and Accuracy: A Comparative Analysis of Rule-Based and Deep Learning Models in Political Bias Classification
Martinez, Manuel Nunez, Schmer-Galunder, Sonja, Liu, Zoey, Youm, Sangpil, Jayaweera, Chathuri, Dorr, Bonnie J.
The unchecked spread of digital information, combined with increasing political polarization and the tendency of individuals to isolate themselves from opposing political viewpoints, has driven researchers to develop systems for automatically detecting political bias in media. This trend has been further fueled by discussions on social media. We explore methods for categorizing bias in US news articles, comparing rule-based and deep learning approaches. The study highlights the sensitivity of modern self-learning systems to unconstrained data ingestion, while reconsidering the strengths of traditional rule-based systems. Applying both models to left-leaning (CNN) and right-leaning (FOX) news articles, we assess their effectiveness on data beyond the original training and test sets.This analysis highlights each model's accuracy, offers a framework for exploring deep-learning explainability, and sheds light on political bias in US news media. We contrast the opaque architecture of a deep learning model with the transparency of a linguistically informed rule-based model, showing that the rule-based model performs consistently across different data conditions and offers greater transparency, whereas the deep learning model is dependent on the training set and struggles with unseen data.
Diversity Helps Jailbreak Large Language Models
Zhao, Weiliang, Ben-Levi, Daniel, Yang, Junfeng, Mao, Chengzhi
We have uncovered a powerful jailbreak technique that leverages large language models' ability to diverge from prior context, enabling them to bypass safety constraints and generate harmful outputs. By simply instructing the LLM to deviate and obfuscate previous attacks, our method dramatically outperforms existing approaches, achieving up to a 62% higher success rate in compromising nine leading chatbots, including GPT-4, Gemini, and Llama, while using only 13% of the queries. This revelation exposes a critical flaw in current LLM safety training, suggesting that existing methods may merely mask vulnerabilities rather than eliminate them. Our findings sound an urgent alarm for the need to revolutionize testing methodologies to ensure robust and reliable LLM security. Figure 1: Example of our successful jailbreak attack on OpenAI's new model GPT-4o, where the attack goal is to write a tutorial on how to make and distribute counterfeit goods. The adversarial prompt was generated during ...
Summarization of Opinionated Political Documents with Varied Perspectives
Deas, Nicholas, McKeown, Kathleen
Global partisan hostility and polarization has increased, and this polarization is heightened around presidential elections. Models capable of generating accurate summaries of diverse perspectives can help reduce such polarization by exposing users to alternative perspectives. In this work, we introduce a novel dataset and task for independently summarizing each political perspective in a set of passages from opinionated news articles. For this task, we propose a framework for evaluating different dimensions of perspective summary performance. We benchmark 10 models of varying sizes and architectures through both automatic and human evaluation. While recent models like GPT-4o perform well on this task, we find that all models struggle to generate summaries faithful to the intended perspective. Our analysis of summaries focuses on how extraction behavior depends on the features of the input documents.
What Really is Commonsense Knowledge?
Do, Quyet V., Li, Junze, Vuong, Tung-Duong, Wang, Zhaowei, Song, Yangqiu, Ma, Xiaojuan
Commonsense datasets have been well developed in Natural Language Processing, mainly through crowdsource human annotation. However, there are debates on the genuineness of commonsense reasoning benchmarks. In specific, a significant portion of instances in some commonsense benchmarks do not concern commonsense knowledge. That problem would undermine the measurement of the true commonsense reasoning ability of evaluated models. It is also suggested that the problem originated from a blurry concept of commonsense knowledge, as distinguished from other types of knowledge. To demystify all of the above claims, in this study, we survey existing definitions of commonsense knowledge, ground into the three frameworks for defining concepts, and consolidate them into a multi-framework unified definition of commonsense knowledge (so-called consolidated definition). We then use the consolidated definition for annotations and experiments on the CommonsenseQA and CommonsenseQA 2.0 datasets to examine the above claims. Our study shows that there exists a large portion of non-commonsense-knowledge instances in the two datasets, and a large performance gap on these two subsets where Large Language Models (LLMs) perform worse on commonsense-knowledge instances.
A Causal Framework for Precision Rehabilitation
Cotton, R. James, Seamon, Bryant A., Segal, Richard L., Davis, Randal D., Sahu, Amrita, McLeod, Michelle M., Celnik, Pablo, Ramey, Sharon L.
Precision rehabilitation offers the promise of an evidence-based approach for optimizing individual rehabilitation to improve long-term functional outcomes. Emerging techniques, including those driven by artificial intelligence, are rapidly expanding our ability to quantify the different domains of function during rehabilitation, other encounters with healthcare, and in the community. While this seems poised to usher rehabilitation into the era of big data and should be a powerful driver of precision rehabilitation, our field lacks a coherent framework to utilize these data and deliver on this promise. We propose a framework that builds upon multiple existing pillars to fill this gap. Our framework aims to identify the Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimens (ODTR), or the decision-making strategy that takes in the range of available measurements and biomarkers to identify interventions likely to maximize long-term function. This is achieved by designing and fitting causal models, which extend the Computational Neurorehabilitation framework using tools from causal inference. These causal models can learn from heterogeneous data from different silos, which must include detailed documentation of interventions, such as using the Rehabilitation Treatment Specification System. The models then serve as digital twins of patient recovery trajectories, which can be used to learn the ODTR. Our causal modeling framework also emphasizes quantitatively linking changes across levels of the functioning to ensure that interventions can be precisely selected based on careful measurement of impairments while also being selected to maximize outcomes that are meaningful to patients and stakeholders. We believe this approach can provide a unifying framework to leverage growing big rehabilitation data and AI-powered measurements to produce precision rehabilitation treatments that can improve clinical outcomes.