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Integrating Dynamic Correlation Shifts and Weighted Benchmarking in Extreme Value Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an innovative approach to Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) by introducing the Extreme Value Dynamic Benchmarking Method (EVDBM). EVDBM integrates extreme value theory to detect extreme events and is coupled with the novel Dynamic Identification of Significant Correlation (DISC)-Thresholding algorithm, which enhances the analysis of key variables under extreme conditions. By integrating return values predicted through EVA into the benchmarking scores, we are able to transform these scores to reflect anticipated conditions more accurately. This provides a more precise picture of how each case is projected to unfold under extreme conditions. As a result, the adjusted scores offer a forward-looking perspective, highlighting potential vulnerabilities and resilience factors for each case in a way that static historical data alone cannot capture. By incorporating both historical and probabilistic elements, the EVDBM algorithm provides a comprehensive benchmarking framework that is adaptable to a range of scenarios and contexts. The methodology is applied to real PV data, revealing critical low - production scenarios and significant correlations between variables, which aid in risk management, infrastructure design, and long-term planning, while also allowing for the comparison of different production plants. The flexibility of EVDBM suggests its potential for broader applications in other sectors where decision-making sensitivity is crucial, offering valuable insights to improve outcomes.


The Role of Accuracy and Validation Effectiveness in Conversational Business Analytics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study examines conversational business analytics, an approach that utilizes AI to address the technical competency gaps that hinder end users from effectively using traditional self-service analytics. By facilitating natural language interactions, conversational business analytics aims to empower end users to independently retrieve data and generate insights. The analysis focuses on Text-to-SQL as a representative technology for translating natural language requests into SQL statements. Developing theoretical models grounded in expected utility theory, this study identifies the conditions under which conversational business analytics, through partial or full support, can outperform delegation to human experts. The results indicate that partial support, focusing solely on information generation by AI, is viable when the accuracy of AI-generated SQL queries leads to a profit that surpasses the performance of a human expert. In contrast, full support includes not only information generation but also validation through explanations provided by the AI, and requires sufficiently high validation effectiveness to be reliable. However, user-based validation presents challenges, such as misjudgment and rejection of valid SQL queries, which may limit the effectiveness of conversational business analytics. These challenges underscore the need for robust validation mechanisms, including improved user support, automated processes, and methods for assessing quality independent of the technical competency of end users.


Uncertainty in Supply Chain Digital Twins: A Quantum-Classical Hybrid Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial risk assessment. Although quantum feature transformations have been integrated into ML models for complex data tasks, a gap exists in determining their impact on UQ within their hybrid architectures (quantum-classical approach). This work applies existing UQ techniques for different models within a hybrid framework, examining how quantum feature transformation affects uncertainty propagation. Increasing qubits from 4 to 16 shows varied model responsiveness to outlier detection (OD) samples, which is a critical factor for resilient decision-making in dynamic environments. This work shows how quantum computing techniques can transform data features for UQ, particularly when combined with traditional methods.


AI-Native Multi-Access Future Networks -- The REASON Architecture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of the sixth generation of communication networks (6G) has been gaining momentum over the past years, with a target of being introduced by 2030. Several initiatives worldwide are developing innovative solutions and setting the direction for the key features of these networks. Some common emerging themes are the tight integration of AI, the convergence of multiple access technologies and sustainable operation, aiming to meet stringent performance and societal requirements. To that end, we are introducing REASON - Realising Enabling Architectures and Solutions for Open Networks. The REASON project aims to address technical challenges in future network deployments, such as E2E service orchestration, sustainability, security and trust management, and policy management, utilising AI-native principles, considering multiple access technologies and cloud-native solutions. This paper presents REASON's architecture and the identified requirements for future networks. The architecture is meticulously designed for modularity, interoperability, scalability, simplified troubleshooting, flexibility, and enhanced security, taking into consideration current and future standardisation efforts, and the ease of implementation and training. It is structured into four horizontal layers: Physical Infrastructure, Network Service, Knowledge, and End-User Application, complemented by two vertical layers: Management and Orchestration, and E2E Security. This layered approach ensures a robust, adaptable framework to support the diverse and evolving requirements of 6G networks, fostering innovation and facilitating seamless integration of advanced technologies.


Reverse Prompt Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores a new black-box, zero-shot language model inversion problem and proposes an innovative framework for prompt reconstruction using only text outputs from a language model. Leveraging a large language model alongside an optimization algorithm, the proposed method effectively recovers prompts with minimal resources. Experimental results on several datasets derived from public sources indicate that the proposed approach achieves high-quality prompt recovery and generates prompts more similar to the originals than current state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the use-case study demonstrates the method's strong potential for generating high-quality text data.


Using Large Language Models for a standard assessment mapping for sustainable communities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a new approach to urban sustainability assessment through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to streamline the use of the ISO 37101 framework to automate and standardise the assessment of urban initiatives against the six "sustainability purposes" and twelve "issues" outlined in the standard. The methodology includes the development of a custom prompt based on the standard definitions and its application to two different datasets: 527 projects from the Paris Participatory Budget and 398 activities from the PROBONO Horizon 2020 project. The results show the effectiveness of LLMs in quickly and consistently categorising different urban initiatives according to sustainability criteria. The approach is particularly promising when it comes to breaking down silos in urban planning by providing a holistic view of the impact of projects. The paper discusses the advantages of this method over traditional human-led assessments, including significant time savings and improved consistency. However, it also points out the importance of human expertise in interpreting results and ethical considerations. This study hopefully can contribute to the growing body of work on AI applications in urban planning and provides a novel method for operationalising standardised sustainability frameworks in different urban contexts.


A Survey of Stance Detection on Social Media: New Directions and Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In modern digital environments, users frequently express opinions on contentious topics, providing a wealth of information on prevailing attitudes. The systematic analysis of these opinions offers valuable insights for decision-making in various sectors, including marketing and politics. As a result, stance detection has emerged as a crucial subfield within affective computing, enabling the automatic detection of user stances in social media conversations and providing a nuanced understanding of public sentiment on complex issues. Recent years have seen a surge of research interest in developing effective stance detection methods, with contributions from multiple communities, including natural language processing, web science, and social computing. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of stance detection techniques on social media, covering task definitions, datasets, approaches, and future works. We review traditional stance detection models, as well as state-of-the-art methods based on large language models, and discuss their strengths and limitations. Our survey highlights the importance of stance detection in understanding public opinion and sentiment, and identifies gaps in current research. We conclude by outlining potential future directions for stance detection on social media, including the need for more robust and generalizable models, and the importance of addressing emerging challenges such as multi-modal stance detection and stance detection in low-resource languages.


Dynamically Optimal Treatment Allocation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many critical treatment assignment problems are inherently dynamic in nature. For example, consider the allocation of job-training programs to newly unemployed individuals. Such programs are often funded through a fixed yearly budget determined in advance by the legislature, while job-seekers arrive at job centers sequentially throughout the year. Policymakers must decide whether to allocate training to each individual, recognizing that each decision affects the remaining budget and the availability of training for future applicants who may benefit even more. In essence, policymakers face a dynamic optimization problem, balancing immediate needs against long-term budgetary constraints.


Curvature in the Looking-Glass: Optimal Methods to Exploit Curvature of Expectation in the Loss Landscape

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Harnessing the local topography of the loss landscape is a central challenge in advanced optimization tasks. By accounting for the effect of potential parameter changes, we can alter the model more efficiently. Contrary to standard assumptions, we find that the Hessian does not always approximate loss curvature well, particularly near gradient discontinuities, which commonly arise in deep learning architectures. We present a new conceptual framework to understand how curvature of expected changes in loss emerges in architectures with many rectified linear units. Each ReLU creates a parameter boundary that, when crossed, induces a pseudorandom gradient perturbation. Our derivations show how these discontinuities combine to form a glass-like structure, similar to amorphous solids that contain microscopic domains of strong, but random, atomic alignment. By estimating the density of the resulting gradient variations, we can bound how the loss may change with parameter movement. Our analysis includes the optimal kernel and sample distribution for approximating glass density from ordinary gradient evaluations. We also derive the optimal modification to quasi-Newton steps that incorporate both glass and Hessian terms, as well as certain exactness properties that are possible with Nesterov-accelerated gradient updates. Our algorithm, Alice, tests these techniques to determine which curvature terms are most impactful for training a given architecture and dataset. Additional safeguards enforce stable exploitation through step bounds that expand on the functionality of Adam. These theoretical and experimental tools lay groundwork to improve future efforts (e.g., pruning and quantization) by providing new insight into the loss landscape.


Adversarial Attacks for Drift Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data from the real world is often subject to continuous changes known as concept drift [1, 2, 3]. Such can be caused by seasonal changes, changed demands, aging of sensors, etc. Concept drift not only poses a problem for maintaining high performance in learning models [2, 3] but also plays a crucial role in system monitoring [1]. In the latter case, the detection of concept drift is crucial as it enables the detection of anomalous behavior. Examples include machine malfunctions or failures, network security, environmental changes, and critical infrastructures. This is done by detecting irregular shifts [4, 1, 5]. In these contexts, the ability to robustly detect drift is essential. In addition to problems such as noise and sampling error, which challenge all statistical methods, drift detection faces a special kind of difficulty when the drift follows certain patterns that evade detection. In this work, we study those specific drifts that we will refer to as "drift adversarials". Similar to adversarial attacks, drift adversarials exploit weaknesses in the detection methods, and thus allow significant concept drift to occur without triggering alarms posing major issues for monitoring systems.