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A kinetic-based regularization method for data science applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a physics-based regularization technique for function learning, inspired by statistical mechanics. By drawing an analogy between optimizing the parameters of an interpolator and minimizing the energy of a system, we introduce corrections that impose constraints on the lower-order moments of the data distribution. This minimizes the discrepancy between the discrete and continuum representations of the data, in turn allowing to access more favorable energy landscapes, thus improving the accuracy of the interpolator. Our approach improves performance in both interpolation and regression tasks, even in high-dimensional spaces. Unlike traditional methods, it does not require empirical parameter tuning, making it particularly effective for handling noisy data. We also show that thanks to its local nature, the method offers computational and memory efficiency advantages over Radial Basis Function interpolators, especially for large datasets.


Poisoning Bayesian Inference via Data Deletion and Replication

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Research in adversarial machine learning (AML) has shown that statistical models are vulnerable to maliciously altered data. However, despite advances in Bayesian machine learning models, most AML research remains concentrated on classical techniques. Therefore, we focus on extending the white-box model poisoning paradigm to attack generic Bayesian inference, highlighting its vulnerability in adversarial contexts. A suite of attacks are developed that allow an attacker to steer the Bayesian posterior toward a target distribution through the strategic deletion and replication of true observations, even when only sampling access to the posterior is available. Analytic properties of these algorithms are proven and their performance is empirically examined in both synthetic and real-world scenarios. With relatively little effort, the attacker is able to substantively alter the Bayesian's beliefs and, by accepting more risk, they can mold these beliefs to their will. By carefully constructing the adversarial posterior, surgical poisoning is achieved such that only targeted inferences are corrupted and others are minimally disturbed.


Time-varying Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression with Grouped Sparse Autoencoder

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension techniques, particularly autoencoders, have emerged as promising alternatives in a FAVAR framework, but challenges remain in identifiability, interpretability, and integration with traditional nonlinear time series methods. We address these challenges through two contributions. First, we introduce a Grouped Sparse autoencoder that employs the Spike-and-Slab Lasso prior, with parameters under this prior being shared across variables of the same economic category, thereby achieving semi-identifiability and enhancing model interpretability. Second, we incorporate time-varying parameters into the VAR component to better capture evolving economic dynamics. Our empirical application to the US economy demonstrates that the Grouped Sparse autoencoder produces more interpretable factors through its parsimonious structure; and its combination with time-varying parameter VAR shows superior performance in both point and density forecasting. Impulse response analysis reveals that monetary policy shocks during recessions generate more moderate responses with higher uncertainty compared to expansionary periods.


Donald Trump's A.I. Propaganda

The New Yorker

Just before midnight on February 25th, President Donald Trump posted a thirty-three-second video to Truth Social, the right-wing social network he owns, featuring the tagline "GAZA 2025 WHATS NEXT?" The clip shows victims of war scrabbling in gray rubble and running from soldiers, until the color palette suddenly brightens and the people pass through an archway into the promised land of "Trump Gaza": a grotesquely slick seaside metropolis of modernist beachfront mansions, hotels, and casinos branded with the President's name. Effigies of Trump's head abound, including atop a towering golden statue of the man. The statue's disproportionately long legs were just one clue that the video's strangely smooth and symmetrical compositions were made using artificial intelligence. Its soundtrack was an A.I.-generated, clubby song with lyrics such as "Trump Gaza shining bright, golden future, a brand new light."


DOGE's 1 Federal Spending Limit Is Straight Out of the Twitter Playbook

WIRED

Katie Drummond: And we obviously know you well on this show because you cohost our Thursday episodes with Mike and Lauren. Katie Drummond: And let's get right into it. So Zoรซ, two weeks ago on February 20th, you published a story on WIRED.com about a 1 spending limit being placed on government employee credit cards. Walk us through that first story. You've subsequently published more reporting on that topic this week, but tell us sort of where this came from at the outset.


The Plight of Migrants Is Deeply Misunderstood. Can a Video Game Help?

WIRED

Over the past year, Karla Reyes and her team at Anima Interactive have visited the US-Mexico border twice to interview migrants and humanitarians. They come from Latin America, but also South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, each with a shared goal: to cross into the US in search of safety. In January, hours after President Donald Trump's inauguration, thousands of migrants suddenly received notice that their appointments with US Customs and Border Protection--the agency that would help them gain asylum--had been canceled. The administration shut down the CBP One app that allows migrants to apply for asylum. It was the first of many roadblocks the new administration would erect in front of those seeking to immigrate to America.


UK competition watchdog drops Microsoft-OpenAI probe

BBC News

Critics though say the decision is linked to the changed political environment the CMA is now operating in. The government has instructed the country's regulators to suggest ways of stimulating economic growth. In January, the government removed the then chair of the CMA, Marcus Bokkerink, because it was unhappy with his response to that call. He was replaced on an interim basis by Doug Gurr, former boss of Amazon UK. "The CMA has sat on this decision for over a year, yet within just a few weeks of a former Amazon boss being installed as chair, it has decided everything was absolutely fine all along, nothing to see here," said Foxglove co-executive director Rosa Curling. "This is a bad sign that Big Tech has successfully convinced the prime minister to defang our competition regulator and let Big Tech gobble up the current generation of cutting-edge tech โ€“ just like they did the last one," she told the BBC.


Fox News AI Newsletter: Judge denies Musk's move against OpenAI

FOX News

Gladstone A.I. co-founders and CEOs Edouard Harris and Jeremie Harris explain the major role that A.I will play in national security and warfare on'The Will Cain Show.' Elon Musk met with members of the Senate DOGE caucus at the White House. MUSK'S MOVE BLOCKED: A California judge denied Elon Musk's move to halt OpenAI's efforts to convert it into a for-profit entity, saying in a ruling that the SpaceX and Tesla CEO hadn't met "the high burden required for a preliminary injunction." 'DOWNFALLS' OF AI: A federal judge has declined to impose sanctions on an attorney who submitted a brief that contained incorrect case citations and quotes generated by artificial intelligence. DEFEND YOUR DATA: Windows has always been a favorite target for hackers, but it seems they have now figured out how to actively target Macs as well. We've seen an alarming rise in malware affecting Mac computers, stealing personal data and cryptocurrency.


Facebook scammers want you to think Elon Musk can cure diabetes

Engadget

Elon Musk discovered a simple 30-second "fridge trick" that can reverse diabetes, but the discovery has spooked pharmaceutical companies so much they put a 78 million bounty on his head, forcing the Tesla CEO to flee the country. At least, that's what a collection of AI-generated Facebook ads claim. Facebook ads depicting deepfakes of Elon Musk and Fox News personalities claiming that the Tesla CEO has discovered the cure for diabetes have been circulating on the platform for weeks. The ads seem to be part of a wider scam that uses the deepfakes to sell unproven supplements. Engadget has identified scores of pages running versions of these ads since early February.


What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Hundreds of experts on international affairs believe World War III is inevitable and will likely start within the next 10 years. A new survey of 357 political strategists and foresight practitioners weighed in on the future of humanity, with four in 10 saying a major war involving powerhouses like the US, China or Russia will explode in 2035. By 2035, four in 10 global strategists (40.5%) predicted that a world war involving major nations like the United States, China, or Russia will break out. The majority of those who believe WWIII is coming said that it would likely involve nuclear weapons and battles in outer space. The most notable example pushing respondents to predict would likely be President Donald Trump establishing the US Space Force in 2019.