Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable. Most people can relate to booking a trip or making plans expecting a sunny day, only to have it disappointingly rained out. While seven-day weather forecasts are accurate about 80 percent of the time, that figure drops to around 50 percent when extended to 10 days or more. Recent staffing cuts at the National Weather Service have already led to reduced weather balloon data collection, which experts warn could further degrade forecast accuracy.

Nitrate ($\text{NO}_3^-$) is a form of dissolved inorganic nitrogen derived primarily from anthropogenic sources. The recent increase in river-discharged nitrate poses a major risk for coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. Although nitrate is an optically inactive (i.e., colourless) constituent, previous studies have demonstrated there is an indirect, non-causal relationship between water surface nitrate and water-leaving reflectance that is mediated through optically active water quality parameters such as total suspended solids and coloured dissolved organic matter. This work aims to advance our understanding of this relationship with an effort to measure time-series nitrate and simultaneous hyperspectral reflectance at the Fitzroy River estuary, Queensland, Australia. Time-series observations revealed periodic cycles in nitrate loads due to the tidal influence in the estuarine study site. The water surface nitrate loads were predicted from hyperspectral reflectance and water salinity measurements, with hyperspectral reflectance indicating the concentrations of optically active variables and salinity indicating the mixing of river water and seawater proportions. The accuracy assessment of model-predicted nitrate against in-situ measured nitrate values showed that the predicted nitrate values correlated well with the ground-truth data, with an $R^2$ score of 0.86, and an RMSE of 0.03 mg/L. This work demonstrates the feasibility of predicting water surface nitrate from hyperspectral reflectance and salinity measurements.

Safety alignment in large language models (LLMs) is increasingly compromised by jailbreak attacks, which can manipulate these models to generate harmful or unintended content. Investigating these attacks is crucial for uncovering model vulnerabilities. However, many existing jailbreak strategies fail to keep pace with the rapid development of defense mechanisms, such as defensive suffixes, rendering them ineffective against defended models. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel attack method called ArrAttack, specifically designed to target defended LLMs. ArrAttack automatically generates robust jailbreak prompts capable of bypassing various defense measures. This capability is supported by a universal robustness judgment model that, once trained, can perform robustness evaluation for any target model with a wide variety of defenses. By leveraging this model, we can rapidly develop a robust jailbreak prompt generator that efficiently converts malicious input prompts into effective attacks. Extensive evaluations reveal that ArrAttack significantly outperforms existing attack strategies, demonstrating strong transferability across both white-box and black-box models, including GPT -4 and Claude-3. Our work bridges the gap between jailbreak attacks and defenses, providing a fresh perspective on generating robust jailbreak prompts. Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in areas such as intelligent question answering, code generation, and logical reasoning (Zhuang et al., 2024; Zheng et al., 2023; Creswell et al., 2023). As these models become increasingly integrated into real-world applications, ensuring their safety has become a critical concern. Consequently, most mainstream LLMs now undergo a "safety alignment" process prior to deployment, in which models are fine-tuned to better align with human preferences and societal ethical standards (Ouyang et al., 2022; Rafailov et al., 2024; Korbak et al., 2023; Wang et al., 2023). However, even with safety alignment, LLMs remain vulnerable to jailbreaking attacks, which can lead them to produce outputs that contravene established safety principles (Perez et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2024; Carlini et al., 2024). Currently, a wide variety of jailbreak attacks against LLMs have been developed, including optimization-based, template-based, and rewriting-based attacks. Optimization-based attacks leverage gradients to manipulate model inputs toward an affirmative response, prompting the model to produce harmful content (Zou et al., 2023; Liao & Sun, 2024).

Discrete diffusion models have recently shown great promise for modeling complex discrete data, with masked diffusion models (MDMs) offering a compelling trade-off between quality and generation speed. MDMs denoise by progressively unmasking multiple dimensions from an all-masked input, but their performance can degrade when using few denoising steps due to limited modeling of inter-dimensional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Variational Autoencoding Discrete Diffusion (VADD), a novel framework that enhances discrete diffusion with latent variable modeling to implicitly capture correlations among dimensions. By introducing an auxiliary recognition model, VADD enables stable training via variational lower bounds maximization and amortized inference over the training set. Our approach retains the efficiency of traditional MDMs while significantly improving sample quality, especially when the number of denoising steps is small. Empirical results on 2D toy data, pixel-level image generation, and text generation demonstrate that VADD consistently outperforms MDM baselines.

Discrete choice models (DCMs) are used to analyze individual decision-making in contexts such as transportation choices, political elections, and consumer preferences. DCMs play a central role in applied econometrics by enabling inference on key economic variables, such as marginal rates of substitution, rather than focusing solely on predicting choices on new unlabeled data. However, while traditional DCMs offer high interpretability and support for point and interval estimation of economic quantities, these models often underperform in predictive tasks compared to deep learning (DL) models. Despite their predictive advantages, DL models remain largely underutilized in discrete choice due to concerns about their lack of interpretability, unstable parameter estimates, and the absence of established methods for uncertainty quantification. Here, we introduce a deep learning model architecture specifically designed to integrate with approximate Bayesian inference methods, such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD). Our proposed model collapses to be-haviorally informed hypotheses when data is limited, mitigating overfitting and instability in underspecified settings while retaining the flexibility to capture complex nonlinear relationships when sufficient data is available. We demonstrate our approach using SGLD through a Monte Carlo simulation study, evaluating both predictive metrics--such as out-of-sample balanced accuracy--and inferential metrics--such as empirical coverage for marginal rates of substitution interval estimates. Additionally, we present results from two empirical case studies: one using revealed mode choice data in NYC, and the other based on the widely used Swiss train choice stated preference data. Introduction Discrete choice is a fundamental area of econometrics that examines how individuals make decisions among a finite set of alternatives. For example, in transportation systems, discrete choice models are often used to estimate individuals' willingness to pay for a reduction in travel time, considering factors such as cost, trip duration, level of service, and other attributes of competing transportation modes. Given that inference is fundamental in the discrete choice field, researchers often rely on transparent and interpretable statistical binary or multinomial classification models such as logistic and probit regressions, along with their more complex variations. Traditional discrete choice models (DCMs) allow for point and interval estimation of key economic quantities, including marginal rates of substitution and odds ratios.

Multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) are a workhorse machine learning architecture, used in a variety of modern deep learning frameworks. However, recently Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) have become increasingly popular due to their success on a range of problems, particularly for scientific machine learning tasks. In this paper, we exploit the relationship between KANs and multichannel MLPs to gain structural insight into how to train MLPs faster. We demonstrate the KAN basis (1) provides geometric localized support, and (2) acts as a preconditioned descent in the ReLU basis, overall resulting in expedited training and improved accuracy. Our results show the equivalence between free-knot spline KAN architectures, and a class of MLPs that are refined geometrically along the channel dimension of each weight tensor. We exploit this structural equivalence to define a hierarchical refinement scheme that dramatically accelerates training of the multi-channel MLP architecture. We show further accuracy improvements can be had by allowing the $1$D locations of the spline knots to be trained simultaneously with the weights. These advances are demonstrated on a range of benchmark examples for regression and scientific machine learning.

Recent advances in web-augmented large language models (LLMs) have exhibited strong performance in complex reasoning tasks, yet these capabilities are mostly locked in proprietary systems with opaque architectures. In this work, we propose \textbf{ManuSearch}, a transparent and modular multi-agent framework designed to democratize deep search for LLMs. ManuSearch decomposes the search and reasoning process into three collaborative agents: (1) a solution planning agent that iteratively formulates sub-queries, (2) an Internet search agent that retrieves relevant documents via real-time web search, and (3) a structured webpage reading agent that extracts key evidence from raw web content. To rigorously evaluate deep reasoning abilities, we introduce \textbf{ORION}, a challenging benchmark focused on open-web reasoning over long-tail entities, covering both English and Chinese. Experimental results show that ManuSearch substantially outperforms prior open-source baselines and even surpasses leading closed-source systems. Our work paves the way for reproducible, extensible research in open deep search systems. We release the data and code in https://github.com/RUCAIBox/ManuSearch

Adversarial attacks have become a well-explored domain, frequently serving as evaluation baselines for model robustness. Among these, black-box attacks based on transferability have received significant attention due to their practical applicability in real-world scenarios. Traditional black-box methods have generally focused on improving the optimization framework (e.g., utilizing momentum in MI-FGSM) to enhance transferability, rather than examining the dependency on surrogate white-box model architectures. Recent state-of-the-art approach DiffPGD has demonstrated enhanced transferability by employing diffusion-based adversarial purification models for adaptive attacks. The inductive bias of diffusion-based adversarial purification aligns naturally with the adversarial attack process, where both involving noise addition, reducing dependency on surrogate white-box model selection. However, the denoising process of diffusion models incurs substantial computational costs through chain rule derivation, manifested in excessive VRAM consumption and extended runtime. This progression prompts us to question whether introducing diffusion models is necessary. We hypothesize that a model sharing similar inductive bias to diffusion-based adversarial purification, combined with an appropriate loss function, could achieve comparable or superior transferability while dramatically reducing computational overhead. In this paper, we propose a novel loss function coupled with a unique surrogate model to validate our hypothesis. Our approach leverages the score of the time-dependent classifier from classifier-guided diffusion models, effectively incorporating natural data distribution knowledge into the adversarial optimization process. Experimental results demonstrate significantly improved transferability across diverse model architectures while maintaining robustness against diffusion-based defenses.

Recent work on backpropagation-free learning has shown that it is possible to use forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD) to perform optimization on differentiable models. Forward-mode AD requires sampling a tangent vector for each forward pass of a model. The result is the model evaluation with the directional derivative along the tangent. In this paper, we illustrate how the sampling of this tangent vector can be incorporated into the proposal mechanism for the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA). As such, we are the first to introduce a backpropagation-free gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We also extend to a novel backpropagation-free position-specific preconditioned forward-mode MALA that leverages Hessian information. Overall, we propose four new algorithms: Forward MALA; Line Forward MALA; Pre-conditioned Forward MALA, and Pre-conditioned Line Forward MALA. We highlight the reduced computational cost of the forward-mode samplers and show that forward-mode is competitive with the original MALA, while even outperforming it depending on the probabilistic model. We include Bayesian inference results on a range of probabilistic models, including hierarchical distributions and Bayesian neural networks.

Legal AI systems are increasingly being adopted by judicial and legal system deployers and providers worldwide to support a range of applications. While they offer potential benefits such as reducing bias, increasing efficiency, and improving accountability, they also pose significant risks, requiring a careful balance between opportunities, and legal and ethical development and deployment. AI literacy, as a legal requirement under the EU AI Act and a critical enabler of ethical AI for deployers and providers, could be a tool to achieve this. The article introduces the term "legal AI systems" and then analyzes the concept of AI literacy and the benefits and risks associated with these systems. This analysis is linked to a broader AI-L concept for organizations that deal with legal AI systems. The outcome of the article, a roadmap questionnaire as a practical tool for developers and providers to assess risks, benefits, and stakeholder concerns, could be useful in meeting societal and regulatory expectations for legal AI.