Government
Exploring counterfactuals in continuous-action reinforcement learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) agents are capable of making complex decisions in dynamic environments, yet their behavior often remains opaque. When an agent executes a sequence of actions--such as administering insulin to a diabetic patient or controlling a spacecraft's landing--it is rarely clear how outcomes might have changed under alternative choices. This challenge becomes particularly pronounced in settings involving continuous action spaces, where decisions are not confined to discrete options but span a spectrum of real-valued magnitudes. The framework introduced in recent work aims to generate counterfactual explanations in such settings, offering a structured approach to explore "what if" scenarios. The value of counterfactual reasoning in RL becomes apparent in scenarios with high-stakes, temporally extended consequences.
This May Be Trump's Most Consequential Decision Yet
This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss whether the US should join Israel's war on Iran, the tragic Minnesota assassinations and why US political violence is surging now, and the Supreme Court's unsurprising but willfully obtuse decision to uphold Tennessee's youth transgender care ban. Here are some notes and references from this week's show: Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, and Dustin Volz for The Wall Street Journal (Exclusive): Israel Built Its Case for War With Iran on New Intelligence. The U.S. Didn't Buy It. Thomas L. Friedman for The New York Times (Opinion): The Smart Way for Trump to End the Israel-Iran War Oren Cass for Understanding America (Substack): Is Israel the Ideal "America First" Ally? Warren P. Strobel, Alex Horton, and Abigail Hauslohner for the Washington Post: Navigating Iran crisis, Trump relies on experience over star power Amy Howe for SCOTUSblog: Court upholds Tennessee's ban on certain medical treatments for transgender minors Abbie VanSickle for The New York Times: Sotomayor Writes the Court'Abandons' Transgender Children to'Political Whims' Ella Lee for The Hill: Clarence Thomas urges courts to end deferring to'experts' on gender-affirming care Ian Millhiser for Vox: The Supreme Court's incoherent new attack on trans rights, explained Here are this week's chatters: Emily: A Family Matter by Claire Lynch; The Fall of Affirmative Action: Race, the Supreme Court, and the Future of Higher Education by Justin Driver; A Flower Traveled in My Blood: The Incredible True Story of the Grandmothers Who Fought to Find a Stolen Generation of Children by Haley Cohen Gilliland. John: Mary Cunningham for CBS News: Federal Reserve holds its benchmark interest rate steady at today's FOMC meeting; ABA Banking Journal: Fed's Powell says some areas of U.S. may be'uninsurable' in next decade David: Trip Gabriel for the New York Times: William Langewiesche, the'Steve McQueen of Journalism,' Dies at 70 For this week's Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David discuss the exciting possibilities and likely limitations of using AI tools for historical research and writing.
Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts
As fears of all-out nuclear war intensify, scientists are sounding the alarm that the decision to launch a catastrophic strike could soon rest not with world leaders, but with a machine. In a stark warning, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent group that monitors global security issues, reported that the decades-long decline in global nuclear arsenals has come to an end. Instead, nations are now modernizing, expanding, and deploying their stockpiles at a rapid and alarming pace, signaling the onset of a new, high-tech arms race. While AI and similar technologies can accelerate decision-making during crises, scientists warn they also raise the risk of nuclear conflict through miscommunication, misunderstanding, or technical failure, the report stated. In a nuclear standoff, decision-makers often have only minutes to assess threats and respond.
Fox Nation reveals never-before-seen footage from Trump assassination attempt in Butler
'The Art of the Surge' is available to stream on Fox Nation, taking viewers behind the scenes of President Donald Trump's campaign and road back to the White House. President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign took a deadly turn when an assassin made an attempt on his life during a July rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Now, Fox Nation subscribers can uncover new, previously unreleased footage from the shocking event. As shown on Wednesday's edition of "Fox & Friends," new drone footage featured in Fox Nation's "Art of the Surge: The Donald Trump Comeback" captures the scene of the Butler rally, as well as close-up footage of the Secret Service protecting Trump after shots rang out. Also shown are shocking videos of the crowd's reaction as everything unfolded, highlighting the fear of those who were there that day.
Life on Mars: Humans will live in huge 'space oases' on the Red Planet in just 15 years, European Space Agency predicts
Imagine a future where humans live in huge'space oases' on Mars – luxury indoor habitats made of heat-reflective material that grow their own food. Robots are sent into the vast Martian wilderness, where they explore without the risk of exhaustion, radiation poisoning or dust contamination. Enormous space stations and satellites are manufactured in orbit, AI is trusted to make critical decisions, and the whole solar system is connected by a vast internet network. While this sounds like science-fiction, the European Space Agency (ESA) hopes it will become a reality in just 15 years. In a new report, the agency – which represents more than 20 countries including the UK – outlines an ambitious vision for space exploration by 2040.
California police plead for help amid officer shortage as union boss warns of unprecedented riot 'onslaught'
Officers from the Los Angeles Police Department and California Highway Patrol make arrests as rioters continue to create havoc in LA. (Derek Shook for Fox News Digital) LOS ANGELES – As the protests against Los Angeles' immigration raids spread, state law enforcement leaders are sounding the alarm on the dangers facing officers on the front lines of the riots. "I've been around a very long time, and I have seen similar to what we're facing now," Jake Johnson, president of the California Association of Highway Patrolmen (CAHP), told Fox News Digital. "But I've never seen the amount of onslaught." Thousands of protesters descended on Los Angeles in the last two weeks after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers began conducting raids throughout the sanctuary city. The violence included rioters hurling projectiles at law enforcement officers and lighting numerous self-driving electric vehicles on fire.
Russia's 'Davos' yet to recover Western appeal despite thaw with Washington
Russia's flagship economic forum kicked off Wednesday with stalls selling Russian President Vladimir Putin-themed merchandise and humanoid robots, but Westerners were few and far between -- despite warming ties between Moscow and Washington under U.S. President Donald Trump. Once dubbed "Russia's Davos," the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is designed to attract foreign investment and is the biggest showcase of Russian technology and business. Some 20,000 guests from 140 countries are set to take part in the forum over the next four days, both online and in person, according to the Kremlin.
Identifying social isolation themes in NVDRS text narratives using topic modeling and text-classification methods
Walker, Drew, Rajwal, Swati, Das, Sudeshna, Peddireddy, Snigdha, Sarker, Abeed
Social isolation and loneliness, which have been increasing in recent years strongly contribute toward suicide rates. Although social isolation and loneliness are not currently recorded within the US National Violent Death Reporting System's (NVDRS) structured variables, natural language processing (NLP) techniques can be used to identify these constructs in law enforcement and coroner medical examiner narratives. Using topic modeling to generate lexicon development and supervised learning classifiers, we developed high-quality classifiers (average F1: .86, accuracy: .82). Evaluating over 300,000 suicides from 2002 to 2020, we identified 1,198 mentioning chronic social isolation. Decedents had higher odds of chronic social isolation classification if they were men (OR = 1.44; CI: 1.24, 1.69, p<.0001), gay (OR = 3.68; 1.97, 6.33, p<.0001), or were divorced (OR = 3.34; 2.68, 4.19, p<.0001). We found significant predictors for other social isolation topics of recent or impending divorce, child custody loss, eviction or recent move, and break-up. Our methods can improve surveillance and prevention of social isolation and loneliness in the United States.
Accurate and Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Task Prediction of HEA Properties Using Prior-Guided Deep Gaussian Processes
Alvi, Sk Md Ahnaf Akif, Mulukutla, Mrinalini, Flores, Nicolas, Khatamsaz, Danial, Janssen, Jan, Perez, Danny, Allaire, Douglas, Attari, Vahid, Arroyave, Raymundo
Surrogate modeling techniques have become indispensable in accelerating the discovery and optimization of high-entropy alloys(HEAs), especially when integrating computational predictions with sparse experimental observations. This study systematically evaluates the fitting performance of four prominent surrogate models conventional Gaussian Processes(cGP), Deep Gaussian Processes(DGP), encoder-decoder neural networks for multi-output regression and XGBoost applied to a hybrid dataset of experimental and computational properties in the AlCoCrCuFeMnNiV HEA system. We specifically assess their capabilities in predicting correlated material properties, including yield strength, hardness, modulus, ultimate tensile strength, elongation, and average hardness under dynamic and quasi-static conditions, alongside auxiliary computational properties. The comparison highlights the strengths of hierarchical and deep modeling approaches in handling heteroscedastic, heterotopic, and incomplete data commonly encountered in materials informatics. Our findings illustrate that DGP infused with machine learning-based prior outperform other surrogates by effectively capturing inter-property correlations and input-dependent uncertainty. This enhanced predictive accuracy positions advanced surrogate models as powerful tools for robust and data-efficient materials design.