Government
Machine Learning Based Stress Testing Framework for Indian Financial Market Portfolios
G, Vidya Sagar, Ali, Shifat, Chakrabarty, Siddhartha P.
This paper presents a machine learning driven framework for sectoral stress testing in the Indian financial market, focusing on financial services, information technology, energy, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals. Initially, we address the limitations observed in conventional stress testing through dimensionality reduction and latent factor modeling via Principal Component Analysis and Autoencoders. Building on this, we extend the methodology using V ariational Autoencoders, which introduces a probabilistic structure to the latent space. This enables Monte Carlo-based scenario generation, allowing for more nuanced, distribution-aware simulation of stressed market conditions. The proposed framework captures complex non-linear dependencies and supports risk estimation through V alue-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. Together, these pipelines demonstrate the potential of Machine Learning approaches to improve the flexibility, robustness, and realism of financial stress testing. Stress testing is a fundamental component of financial risk management, designed to evaluate the resilience of financial systems or portfolios under adverse market conditions [1]. By simulating extreme but plausible scenarios, stress tests provide insight into potential vulnerabilities, that may not be evident during normal periods of market operation. Regulatory institutions such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) [2] and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [3] have emphasized the critical role of stress testing in ensuring financial stability, particularly in the aftermath of global financial crises of 2008.
Synthetic Heuristic Evaluation: A Comparison between AI- and Human-Powered Usability Evaluation
Zhong, Ruican, McDonald, David W., Hsieh, Gary
Usability evaluation is crucial in human-centered design but can be costly, requiring expert time and user compensation. In this work, we developed a method for synthetic heuristic evaluation using multimodal LLMs' ability to analyze images and provide design feedback. Comparing our synthetic evaluations to those by experienced UX practitioners across two apps, we found our evaluation identified 73% and 77% of usability issues, which exceeded the performance of 5 experienced human evaluators (57% and 63%). Compared to human evaluators, the synthetic evaluation's performance maintained consistent performance across tasks and excelled in detecting layout issues, highlighting potential attentional and perceptual strengths of synthetic evaluation. However, synthetic evaluation struggled with recognizing some UI components and design conventions, as well as identifying across screen violations. Additionally, testing synthetic evaluations over time and accounts revealed stable performance. Overall, our work highlights the performance differences between human and LLM-driven evaluations, informing the design of synthetic heuristic evaluations.
Forecasting Labor Markets with LSTNet: A Multi-Scale Deep Learning Approach
Nelson-Archer, Adam, Sen, Aleia, Hasani, Meena Al, Davila, Sofia, Le, Jessica, Abbouchi, Omar
We present a deep learning approach for forecasting short-term employment changes and assessing long-term industry health using labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our system leverages a Long- and Short-Term Time-series Network (LSTNet) to process multivariate time series data, including employment levels, wages, turnover rates, and job openings. The model outputs both 7-day employment forecasts and an interpretable Industry Employment Health Index (IEHI). Our approach outperforms baseline models across most sectors, particularly in stable industries, and demonstrates strong alignment between IEHI rankings and actual employment volatility. We discuss error patterns, sector-specific performance, and future directions for improving interpretability and generalization.
Moral Responsibility or Obedience: What Do We Want from AI?
As artificial intelligence systems become increasingly agentic, capable of general reasoning, planning, and value prioritization, current safety practices that treat obedience as a proxy for ethical behavior are becoming inadequate. This paper examines recent safety testing incidents involving large language models (LLMs) that appeared to disobey shutdown commands or engage in ethically ambiguous or illicit behavior. I argue that such behavior should not be interpreted as rogue or misaligned, but as early evidence of emerging ethical reasoning in agentic AI. Drawing on philosophical debates about instrumental rationality, moral responsibility, and goal revision, I contrast dominant risk paradigms with more recent frameworks that acknowledge the possibility of artificial moral agency. I call for a shift in AI safety evaluation: away from rigid obedience and toward frameworks that can assess ethical judgment in systems capable of navigating moral dilemmas. Without such a shift, we risk mischaracterizing AI behavior and undermining both public trust and effective governance.
Transformers Don't Need LayerNorm at Inference Time: Scaling LayerNorm Removal to GPT-2 XL and the Implications for Mechanistic Interpretability
Baroni, Luca, Khara, Galvin, Schaeffer, Joachim, Subkhankulov, Marat, Heimersheim, Stefan
Layer-wise normalization (LN) is an essential component of virtually all transformer-based large language models. While its effects on training stability are well documented, its role at inference time is poorly understood. Additionally, LN layers hinder mechanistic interpretability by introducing additional nonlinearities and increasing the interconnectedness of individual model components. Here, we show that all LN layers can be removed from every GPT-2 model with only a small increase in validation loss (e.g. +0.03 cross-entropy loss for GPT-2 XL). Thus, LN cannot play a substantial role in language modeling. We find that the amount of fine-tuning data needed for LN removal grows sublinearly with model parameters, suggesting scaling to larger models is feasible. We release a suite of LN-free GPT-2 models on Hugging Face. Furthermore, we test interpretability techniques on LN-free models. Direct logit attribution now gives the exact direct effect of individual components, while the accuracy of attribution patching does not significantly improve. We also confirm that GPT-2's "confidence neurons" are inactive in the LN-free models. Our work clarifies the role of LN layers in language modeling, showing that GPT-2-class models can function without LN layers. We hope that our LN-free analogs of the GPT-2 family of models will enable more precise interpretability research and improve our understanding of language models.
Crafting Hanzi as Narrative Bridges: An AI Co-Creation Workshop for Elderly Migrants
Zhan, Wen, Hua, Ziqun, Lin, Peiyue, Chen, Yunfei
This paper explores how older adults, particularly aging migrants in urban China, can engage AI-assisted co-creation to express personal narratives that are often fragmented, underrepresented, or difficult to verbalize. Through a pilot workshop combining oral storytelling and the symbolic reconstruction of Hanzi, participants shared memories of migration and recreated new character forms using Xiaozhuan glyphs, suggested by the Large Language Model (LLM), together with physical materials. Supported by human facilitation and a soft AI presence, participants transformed lived experience into visual and tactile expressions without requiring digital literacy. This approach offers new perspectives on human-AI collaboration and aging by repositioning AI not as a content producer but as a supportive mechanism, and by supporting narrative agency within sociotechnical systems.
KAIROS: Scalable Model-Agnostic Data Valuation
Zhu, Jiongli, Prashant, Parjanya Prajakta, Cloninger, Alex, Salimi, Babak
Training data increasingly shapes not only model accuracy but also regulatory compliance and market valuation of AI assets. Yet existing valuation methods remain inadequate: model-based techniques depend on a single fitted model and inherit its biases, while algorithm-based approaches such as Data Shapley require costly retrainings at web scale. Recent Wasserstein-based model-agnostic methods rely on approximations that misrank examples relative to their true leave-one-out (LOO) utility. We introduce KAIROS, a scalable, model-agnostic valuation framework that assigns each example a distributional influence score: its contribution to the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the empirical training distribution and a clean reference set. Unlike Wasserstein surrogates, our MMD-based influence admits a closed-form solution that faithfully approximates the exact LOO ranking within $O(1/N^2)$ error, requires no retraining, and naturally extends to conditional kernels for unified label- and feature-error detection. Moreover, KAIROS supports efficient online updates: when a new batch of size m arrives, all scores can be updated in $O(mN)$ time, delivering up to 50x speedup without compromising ranking quality. Empirical evaluations on noise, mislabeling, and poisoning benchmarks show that KAIROS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art model-, Shapley-, and Wasserstein-based baselines in both accuracy and runtime. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees, including symmetry for reproducible rankings and density-separation for interpretable thresholds.
Explainable AI for Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Financial Reports: A Lightweight Hierarchical Transformer Network Approach
Every publicly traded U.S. company files an annual 10-K report containing critical insights into financial health and risk. We propose Tiny eXplainable Risk Assessor (TinyXRA), a lightweight and explainable transformer-based model that automatically assesses company risk from these reports. Unlike prior work that relies solely on the standard deviation of excess returns (adjusted for the Fama-French model), which indiscriminately penalizes both upside and downside risk, TinyXRA incorporates skewness, kurtosis, and the Sortino ratio for more comprehensive risk assessment. We leverage TinyBERT as our encoder to efficiently process lengthy financial documents, coupled with a novel dynamic, attention-based word cloud mechanism that provides intuitive risk visualization while filtering irrelevant terms. This lightweight design ensures scalable deployment across diverse computing environments with real-time processing capabilities for thousands of financial documents which is essential for production systems with constrained computational resources. We employ triplet loss for risk quartile classification, improving over pairwise loss approaches in existing literature by capturing both the direction and magnitude of risk differences. Our TinyXRA achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy across seven test years on a dataset spanning 2013-2024, while providing transparent and interpretable risk assessments. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies to evaluate our contributions and assess model explanations both quantitatively by systematically removing highly attended words and sentences, and qualitatively by examining explanation coherence. The paper concludes with findings, practical implications, limitations, and future research directions.
Robustness of Misinformation Classification Systems to Adversarial Examples Through BeamAttack
Fazla, Arnisa, Krauter, Lucas, Piedrahita, David Guzman, Michail, Andrianos
We extend BeamAttack, an adversarial attack algorithm designed to evaluate the robustness of text classification systems through word-level modifications guided by beam search. Our extensions include support for word deletions and the option to skip substitutions, enabling the discovery of minimal modifications that alter model predictions. We also integrate LIME to better prioritize word replacements. Evaluated across multiple datasets and victim models (BiLSTM, BERT, and adversarially trained RoBERTa) within the BODEGA framework, our approach achieves over a 99\% attack success rate while preserving the semantic and lexical similarity of the original texts. Through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, we highlight BeamAttack's effectiveness and its limitations. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/LucK1Y/BeamAttack
Deep learning four decades of human migration
W e present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of birth, providing a comprehensive picture of migration over the last 35 years. The estimates are obtained by training a deep recurrent neural network to learn flow patterns from 18 covariates for all countries, including geographic, economic, cultural, societal, and political information. The recurrent architecture of the neural network means that the entire past can influence current migration patterns, allowing us to learn long-range temporal correlations. By training an ensemble of neural networks and additionally pushing uncertainty on the covariates through the trained network, we obtain confidence bounds for all our estimates, allowing researchers to pinpoint the geographic regions most in need of additional data collection. W e validate our approach on various test sets of unseen data, demonstrating that it significantly outperforms traditional methods estimating five-year flows while delivering a significant increase in temporal resolution. The model is fully open source: all training data, neural network weights, and training code are made public alongside the migration estimates, providing a valuable resource for future studies of human migration.