While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional natural language capabilities, general-purpose models lack specialized domain knowledge for effective cybersecurity analysis. In this work, we investigate Domain-Adaptive Continuous Pretraining (DAP) as a methodology for enhancing cybersecurity understanding in pretrained LLMs while preserving general language capabilities. We systematically adapted three decoder-based architectures -- Llama-3.1-8B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-14B, and Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct -- using a curated 126-million-word cybersecurity corpus from standards, academic literature, and various other sources. Our approach employed constrained training parameters and distributed FSDP training to balance domain specialization with knowledge preservation. Evaluation across three cybersecurity benchmarks, namely, CTI-MCQ, CyberMetric, and SecEval, demonstrates consistent improvements post-adaptation. The Llama-3.3-70B-Ins-DAP model achieved state-of-the-art accuracies of 0.718, 0.933, and 0.864, respectively, outperforming specialized models, including Llama-Primus-Base. Notably, competitive performance was achieved using substantially smaller datasets (118.8 million versus 2.77 billion tokens), demonstrating efficient domain specialization viability. We establish that targeted continuous pretraining enables effective cybersecurity domain adaptation with computational feasibility, providing foundations for specialized AI assistants in threat analysis, vulnerability assessment, and security documentation while challenging prevailing assumptions about data requirements for LLM specialization.

Collaborative Problem-Solving (CPS) markers capture key aspects of effective teamwork, such as staying on task, avoiding interruptions, and generating constructive ideas. An AI system that reliably detects these markers could help teachers identify when a group is struggling or demonstrating productive collaboration. Such a system requires an automated pipeline composed of multiple components. In this work, we evaluate how CPS detection is impacted by automating two critical components: transcription and speech segmentation. On the public Weights Task Dataset (WTD), we find CPS detection performance with automated transcription and segmentation methods is comparable to human-segmented and manually transcribed data; however, we find the automated segmentation methods reduces the number of utterances by 26.5%, impacting the the granularity of the data. We discuss the implications for developing AI-driven tools that support collaborative learning in classrooms.

As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity observed data with a much larger set of imputed model outputs to estimate some quantity of interest. Yet current hybrid-inference tools target only means or single quantiles, limiting their applicability for many critical domains and use cases. We present QuEst, a principled framework to merge observed and imputed data to deliver point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for a wide family of quantile-based distributional measures. QuEst covers a range of measures, from tail risk (CVaR) to population segments such as quartiles, that are central to fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, and more. We extend QuEst to multidimensional metrics, and introduce an additional optimization technique to further reduce variance in this and other hybrid estimators. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through experiments in economic modeling, opinion polling, and language model auto-evaluation.

This study investigates adaptive experimental design for treatment choice, also known as fixed-budget best-arm identification. We consider an adaptive procedure consisting of a treatment-allocation phase followed by a treatment-choice phase, and we design an adaptive experiment for this setup to efficiently identify the best treatment arm, defined as the one with the highest expected outcome. In our designed experiment, the treatment-allocation phase consists of two stages. The first stage is a pilot phase, where we allocate each treatment arm uniformly with equal proportions to eliminate clearly suboptimal arms and estimate outcome variances. In the second stage, we allocate treatment arms in proportion to the variances estimated in the first stage. After the treatment-allocation phase, the procedure enters the treatment-choice phase, where we choose the treatment arm with the highest sample mean as our estimate of the best treatment arm. We prove that this single design is simultaneously asymptotically minimax and Bayes optimal for the simple regret, with upper bounds that match our lower bounds up to exact constants. Therefore, our designed experiment achieves the sharp efficiency limits without requiring separate tuning for minimax and Bayesian objectives.

While continuous diffusion models excel in modeling continuous distributions, their application to categorical data has been less effective. Recent work has shown that ratio-matching through score-entropy within a continuous-time discrete Markov chain (CTMC) framework serves as a competitive alternative to autoregressive models in language modeling. To enhance this framework, we first introduce three new theorems concerning the KL divergence between the data and learned distribution. Our results serve as the discrete counterpart to those established for continuous diffusion models and allow us to derive an improved upper bound of the perplexity. Second, we empirically show that ratio-matching performed by minimizing the denoising cross-entropy between the clean and corrupted data enables models to outperform those utilizing score-entropy with up to 10% lower perplexity/generative-perplexity, and 15% faster training steps. To further support our findings, we introduce and evaluate a novel CTMC transition-rate matrix that allows prediction refinement, and derive the analytic expression for its matrix exponential which facilitates the computation of conditional ratios thus enabling efficient training and generation.

Cost models in healthcare research must balance interpretability, accuracy, and parameter consistency. However, interpretable models often struggle to achieve both accuracy and consistency. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models for high-dimensional regression can be accurate but fail to produce stable regression coefficients over time when using highly granular ICD-10 diagnostic codes as predictors. This instability arises because many ICD-10 codes are infrequent in healthcare datasets. While regularization methods such as Ridge can address this issue, they risk discarding important predictors. Here, we demonstrate that reducing the granularity of ICD-10 codes is an effective regularization strategy within OLS while preserving the representation of all diagnostic code categories. By truncating ICD-10 codes from seven characters (e.g., T67.0XXA, T67.0XXD) to six (e.g., T67.0XX) or fewer, we reduce the dimensionality of the regression problem while maintaining model interpretability and consistency. Mathematically, the merging of predictors in OLS leads to increased trace of the Hessian matrix, which reduces the variance of coefficient estimation. Our findings explain why broader diagnostic groupings like DRGs and HCC codes are favored over highly granular ICD-10 codes in real-world risk adjustment and cost models.

Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) posits a non-parametric Bayesian model on the conditional quantile function, acting as a model over a conditional model for $Y$ given $X$. One of the key ingredients is augmenting the observed data $\{(Y_i,X_i)\}_{i=1}^n$ with uniformly sampled values $τ_i$ for $1\leq i\leq n$ which serve as training data for quantile function estimation. Using the fact that the location parameter $μ$ in a $τ$-tilted asymmetric Laplace distribution corresponds to the $τ^{th}$ quantile, we build a check-loss likelihood targeting $μ$ as the parameter of interest. We equip the check-loss likelihood parametrized by $μ=f(X,τ)$ with a BART prior on $f(\cdot)$, allowing the conditional quantile function to vary both in $X$ and $τ$. The posterior distribution over $μ(τ,X)$ can be then distilled for estimation of the {\em entire quantile function} as well as for assessing uncertainty through the variation of posterior draws. Simulation-based predictive inference is immediately available through inverse transform sampling using the learned quantile function. The sum-of-trees structure over the conditional quantile function enables flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees. As a byproduct, we investigate posterior mean quantile estimator as an alternative to the routine sample (posterior mode) quantile estimator. We demonstrate the power of IQ-BART on time series forecasting datasets where IQ-BART can capture multimodality in predictive distributions that might be otherwise missed using traditional parametric approaches.

We introduce prototype consistent model-free, dense precision matrix estimators that have broad application in economics. Using quadratic form concentration inequalities and novel algebraic characterizations of confounding dimension reductions, we are able to: (i) obtain non-asymptotic bounds for precision matrix estimation errors and also (ii) consistency in high dimensions; (iii) uncover the existence of an intrinsic signal-to-noise -- underlying dimensions tradeoff; and (iv) avoid exact population sparsity assumptions. In addition to its desirable theoretical properties, a thorough empirical study of the S&P 500 index shows that a tuning parameter-free special case of our general estimator exhibits a doubly ascending Sharpe Ratio pattern, thereby establishing a link with the famous double descent phenomenon dominantly present in recent statistical and machine learning literature.

We introduce GenAI-Powered Inference (GPI), a statistical framework for both causal and predictive inference using unstructured data, including text and images. GPI leverages open-source Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) models - such as large language models and diffusion models - not only to generate unstructured data at scale but also to extract low-dimensional representations that capture their underlying structure. Applying machine learning to these representations, GPI enables estimation of causal and predictive effects while quantifying associated estimation uncertainty. Unlike existing approaches to representation learning, GPI does not require fine-tuning of generative models, making it computationally efficient and broadly accessible. We illustrate the versatility of the GPI framework through three applications: (1) analyzing Chinese social media censorship, (2) estimating predictive effects of candidates' facial appearance on electoral outcomes, and (3) assessing the persuasiveness of political rhetoric. An open-source software package is available for implementing GPI.

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover effect heterogeneity over patient characteristics, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address this, we propose the QR-learner, a model-agnostic learner that estimates conditional average treatment effects (CATE) within the trial population by leveraging external data from other trials or observational studies. The proposed method is robust: it has the potential to reduce the CATE prediction mean squared error while maintaining consistency, even when the external data is not aligned with the trial. Moreover, we introduce a procedure that combines the QR-learner with a trial-only CATE learner and show that it asymptotically matches or exceeds the trial-only learner in terms of mean squared error. We examine the performance of our approach in simulation studies and apply the methods to a real-world dataset, demonstrating improvements in both CATE estimation and statistical power for detecting heterogeneous effects.