Government
Prediction of Hospital Associated Infections During Continuous Hospital Stays
Datta, Rituparna, Kamruzzaman, Methun, Klein, Eili Y., Madden, Gregory R, Deng, Xinwei, Vullikanti, Anil, Bhattacharya, Parantapa
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2019, designated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus au-reus (MRSA) as a serious antimicrobial resistance threat. The risk of acquiring MRSA and suffering life-threatening consequences due to it remains especially high for hospitalized patients due to a unique combination of factors, including: co-morbid conditions, immunosuppression, and antibiotic use, and risk of contact with contaminated hospital workers and equipment. In this paper, we present a novel generative probabilistic model, GenHAI, for modeling sequences of MRSA test results outcomes for patients during a single hospitalization. This model can be used to answer many important questions from the perspectives of hospital administrators for mitigating the risk of MRSA infections. Our model is based on the probabilistic programming paradigm, and can be used to approximately answer a variety of predictive, causal, and counterfactual questions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by comparing it against discriminative and generative machine learning models using two real world datasets.
CALYPSO: Forecasting and Analyzing MRSA Infection Patterns with Community and Healthcare Transmission Dynamics
Datta, Rituparna, Cui, Jiaming, Madden, Gregory R., Vullikanti, Anil
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a critical public health threat within hospitals as well as long-term care facilities. Better understanding of MRSA risks, evaluation of interventions and forecasting MRSA rates are important public health problems. Existing forecasting models rely on statistical or neural network approaches, which lack epidemiological interpretability, and have limited performance. Mechanistic epidemic models are difficult to calibrate and limited in incorporating diverse datasets. We present CALYPSO, a hybrid framework that integrates neural networks with mechanistic metapopulation models to capture the spread dynamics of infectious diseases (i.e., MRSA) across healthcare and community settings. Our model leverages patient-level insurance claims, commuting data, and healthcare transfer patterns to learn region- and time-specific parameters governing MRSA spread. This enables accurate, interpretable forecasts at multiple spatial resolutions (county, healthcare facility, region, state) and supports counterfactual analyses of infection control policies and outbreak risks. We also show that CALYPSO improves statewide forecasting performance by over 4.5% compared to machine learning baselines, while also identifying high-risk regions and cost-effective strategies for allocating infection prevention resources.
Explainability of Algorithms
The opaqueness of many complex machine learning algorithms is often mentioned as one of the main obstacles to the ethical development of artificial intelligence (AI). But what does it mean for an algorithm to be opaque? Highly complex algorithms such as artificial neural networks process enormous volumes of data in parallel along multiple hidden layers of interconnected nodes, rendering their inner workings epistemically inaccessible to any human being, including their designers and developers; they are "black boxes" for all their stakeholders. But opaqueness is not always the inevitable result of technical complexity. Sometimes, the way an algorithm works is intentionally hidden from view for proprietary reasons, especially in commercial automated decision systems, creating an entirely different type of opaqueness. In the first part of the chapter, we will examine these two ways of understanding opacity and the ethical implications that stem from each of them. In the second part, we explore the different explanatory methods that have been developed in computer science to overcome an AI system's technical opaqueness. As the analysis shows, explainable AI (XAI) still faces numerous challenges.
Consumer Autonomy or Illusion? Rethinking Consumer Agency in the Age of Algorithms
Nokhiz, Pegah, Ruwanpathirana, Aravinda Kanchana
Consumer agency in the digital age is increasingly constrained by systemic barriers and algorithmic manipulation, raising concerns about the authenticity of consumption choices. Nowadays, financial decisions are shaped by external pressures like obligatory consumption, algorithmic persuasion, and unstable work schedules that erode financial autonomy. Obligatory consumption (like hidden fees) is intensified by digital ecosystems. Algorithmic tactics like personalized recommendations lead to impulsive purchases. Unstable work schedules also undermine financial planning. Thus, it is important to study how these factors impact consumption agency. To do so, we examine formal models grounded in discounted consumption with constraints that bound agency. We construct analytical scenarios in which consumers face obligatory payments, algorithm-influenced impulsive expenses, or unpredictable income due to temporal instability. Using this framework, we demonstrate that even rational, utility-maximizing agents can experience early financial ruin when agency is limited across structural, behavioral, or temporal dimensions and how diminished autonomy impacts long-term financial well-being. Our central argument is that consumer agency must be treated as a value (not a given) requiring active cultivation, especially in digital ecosystems. The connection between our formal modeling and this argument allows us to indicate that limitations on agency (whether structural, behavioral, or temporal) can be rigorously linked to measurable risks like financial instability. This connection is also a basis for normative claims about consumption as a value, by anchoring them in a formally grounded analysis of consumer behavior. As solutions, we study systemic interventions and consumer education to support value deliberation and informed choices. We formally demonstrate how these measures strengthen agency.
Whispering Context: Distilling Syntax and Semantics for Long Speech Transcripts
ASR systems often struggle with maintaining syntactic and semantic accuracy in long audio transcripts, impacting tasks like Named Entity Recognition (NER), capitalization, and punctuation. We propose a novel approach that enhances ASR by distilling contextual knowledge from LLaMA models into Whisper. Our method uses two strategies: (1) token level distillation with optimal transport to align dimensions and sequence lengths, and (2) representation loss minimization between sentence embeddings of Whisper and LLaMA, blending syntax and semantics. Evaluations on the Spoken Wikipedia dataset, a benchmark with long audios and rich entities demonstrate significant improvements in Word Error Rate (WER), NER, capitalization, and punctuation success. By introducing novel NER metrics and exploring semantics aware ASR, our work highlights the value of integrating linguistic context into transcription, setting a foundation for robust, context-aware ASR in longform speech.
X-MoE: Enabling Scalable Training for Emerging Mixture-of-Experts Architectures on HPC Platforms
Yuan, Yueming, Gupta, Ahan, Li, Jianping, Dash, Sajal, Wang, Feiyi, Zhang, Minjia
Emerging expert-specialized Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, such as DeepSeek-MoE, deliver strong model quality through fine-grained expert segmentation and large top-k routing. However, their scalability is limited by substantial activation memory overhead and costly all-to-all communication. Furthermore, current MoE training systems - primarily optimized for NVIDIA GPUs - perform suboptimally on non-NVIDIA platforms, leaving significant computational potential untapped. In this work, we present X-MoE, a novel MoE training system designed to deliver scalable training performance for next-generation MoE architectures. X-MoE achieves this via several novel techniques, including efficient padding-free MoE training with cross-platform kernels, redundancy-bypassing dispatch, and hybrid parallelism with sequence-sharded MoE blocks. Our evaluation on the Frontier supercomputer, powered by AMD MI250X GPUs, shows that X-MoE scales DeepSeek-style MoEs up to 545 billion parameters across 1024 GPUs - 10x larger than the largest trainable model with existing methods under the same hardware budget, while maintaining high training throughput. The source code of X-MoE is available at https://github.com/Supercomputing-System-AI-Lab/X-MoE.
Automated Cervical Cancer Detection through Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid in Resource-Poor Settings with Lightweight Deep Learning Models Deployed on an Android Device
Maben, Leander Melroy, Prasad, Keerthana, Guruvare, Shyamala, Kudva, Vidya, Siddalingaswamy, P C
Cervical cancer is among the most commonly occurring cancer among women and claims a huge number of lives in low and middle-income countries despite being relatively easy to treat. Several studies have shown that public screening programs can bring down cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates significantly. While several screening tests are available, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) presents itself as the most viable option for low-resource settings due to the affordability and simplicity of performing the test. VIA requires a trained medical professional to interpret the test and is subjective in nature. Automating VIA using AI eliminates subjectivity and would allow shifting of the task to less trained health workers. Task shifting with AI would help further expedite screening programs in low-resource settings. In our work, we propose a lightweight deep learning algorithm that includes EfficientDet-Lite3 as the Region of Interest (ROI) detector and a MobileNet- V2 based model for classification. These models would be deployed on an android-based device that can operate remotely and provide almost instant results without the requirement of highly-trained medical professionals, labs, sophisticated infrastructure, or internet connectivity. The classification model gives an accuracy of 92.31%, a sensitivity of 98.24%, and a specificity of 88.37% on the test dataset and presents itself as a promising automated low-resource screening approach.
Chain-of-Agents: End-to-End Agent Foundation Models via Multi-Agent Distillation and Agentic RL
Li, Weizhen, Lin, Jianbo, Jiang, Zhuosong, Cao, Jingyi, Liu, Xinpeng, Zhang, Jiayu, Huang, Zhenqiang, Chen, Qianben, Sun, Weichen, Wang, Qiexiang, Lu, Hongxuan, Qin, Tianrui, Zhu, Chenghao, Yao, Yi, Fan, Shuying, Li, Xiaowan, Wang, Tiannan, Liu, Pai, Zhu, King, Zhu, He, Shi, Dingfeng, Wang, Piaohong, Guan, Yeyi, Tang, Xiangru, Liu, Minghao, Jiang, Yuchen Eleanor, Yang, Jian, Liu, Jiaheng, Zhang, Ge, Zhou, Wangchunshu
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and multi-agent systems have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex problem-solving tasks such as deep research, vibe coding, and mathematical reasoning. However, most existing multi-agent systems are built upon manual prompt/workflow engineering with sophisticated agent frameworks, making them computationally inefficient, less capable, and can not benefit from data-centric learning. In this work, we introduce Chain-of-Agents (CoA), a novel paradigm of LLM reasoning that enables native end-to-end complex problem-solving in the same way as a multi-agent system (i.e., multi-turn problem solving with multiple tools and multiple agents) within one model. In chain-of-agents problem-solving, the model dynamically activates different tool agents and role-playing agents to simulate multi-agent collaboration in an end-to-end fashion. To elicit end-to-end chain-of-agents problem-solving abilities in LLMs, we introduce a multi-agent distillation framework to distill state-of-the-art multi-agent systems into chain-of-agents trajectories for agentic supervised fine-tuning. We then use agentic reinforcement learning on verifiable agentic tasks to further improve the models' capabilities on chain-of-agents problem solving. We call the resulting models Agent Foundation Models (AFMs). Our empirical studies demonstrate that AFM establishes new state-of-the-art performance across diverse benchmarks in both web agent and code agent settings. We make the entire research, including the model weights, code for training and evaluation, and the training data, fully open-sourced, which offers a solid starting point for future research on agent models and agentic RL.
Comparative Analysis of Time Series Foundation Models for Demographic Forecasting: Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in US Population Dynamics
Akella, Aditya, Farah, Jonathan
Demographic shifts, influenced by globalization, economic conditions, geopolitical events, and environmental factors, pose significant challenges for policymakers and researchers. Accurate demographic forecasting is essential for informed decision-making in areas such as urban planning, healthcare, and economic policy. This study explores the application of time series foundation models to predict demographic changes in the United States using datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). We evaluate the performance of the Time Series Foundation Model (TimesFM) against traditional baselines including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Linear Regression. Our experiments across six demographically diverse states demonstrate that TimesFM achieves the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) in 86.67% of test cases, with particularly strong performance on minority populations with sparse historical data. These findings highlight the potential of pre-trained foundation models to enhance demographic analysis and inform proactive policy interventions without requiring extensive task-specific fine-tuning.
Preliminary suggestions for rigorous GPAI model evaluations
Paskov, Patricia, Byun, Michael J., Wei, Kevin, Webster, Toby
This document presents a preliminary compilation of general-purpose AI (GPAI) evaluation practices that may promote internal validity, external validity and reproducibility. It includes suggestions for human uplift studies and benchmark evaluations, as well as cross-cutting suggestions that may apply to many different evaluation types. Suggestions are organised across four stages in the evaluation life cycle: design, implementation, execution and documentation. Drawing from established practices in machine learning, statistics, psychology, economics, biology and other fields recognised to have important lessons for AI evaluation, these suggestions seek to contribute to the conversation on the nascent and evolving field of the science of GPAI evaluations. The intended audience of this document includes providers of GPAI models presenting systemic risk (GPAISR), for whom the EU AI Act lays out specific evaluation requirements; third-party evaluators; policymakers assessing the rigour of evaluations; and academic researchers developing or conducting GPAI evaluations.